Elche v Celta Vigo match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 47%Elche win
- 27%Draw
- 26%Celta Vigo win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
ElcheLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Celta VigoLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Elche avoided defeat in 9 of 27 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 18 Aug 2025.
- Celta Vigo won 27 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Celta Vigo won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
- Celta Vigo without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Elche 2, draws 0, Celta Vigo 4
Goals: Elche 4, Celta Vigo 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Celta Vigo v Elche | 3–1 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche v Celta Vigo | 2–1 |
| 26 Apr 2023 | Celta Vigo v Elche | 1–0 |
| 6 Jan 2023 | Elche v Celta Vigo | 0–1 |
| 15 May 2022 | Celta Vigo v Elche | 1–0 |
| 3 Oct 2021 | Elche v Celta Vigo | 1–0 |
Home and away
ElcheElche at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostReal Madrid15 Sep 20262–3
- LostReal Sociedad7 Sep 20262–3
- LostBarcelona23 Aug 20260–5
- WonGetafe17 May 20261–0
- DrawnAlaves9 May 20261–1
Elche: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Celta VigoCelta Vigo away
Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost
- LostOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnGetafe7 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnReal Sociedad3 Sep 20260–0
- DrawnValencia22 Aug 20260–0
- DrawnAthletic Club17 May 20261–1
Celta Vigo: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Elche- Last match
- 23 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Espanyol · La Liga
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · La Liga
Celta Vigo- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · UEFA Europa League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Elche
Since 18 Aug 2025
| Score | Elche | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 27 matches | 143 won, 243 drawn, 755 lost in 1141 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches | 342 won, 366 drawn, 342 lost in 1050 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 7 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches | 638 won, 480 drawn, 638 lost in 1756 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 6 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 471 won, 416 drawn, 471 lost in 1358 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Elche | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 22 conceded (45) | 783 scored, 783 conceded (2426) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,281 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 598)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Celta Vigo
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Celta Vigo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 27 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 44 matches | 755 won, 243 drawn, 143 lost in 1141 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 8 drawn, 26 lost in 41 matches | 143 won, 243 drawn, 755 lost in 1141 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches | 342 won, 366 drawn, 342 lost in 1050 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 60 won, 124 drawn, 326 lost in 510 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 11 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 362 won, 118 drawn, 38 lost in 518 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 12 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 35 matches | 263 won, 374 drawn, 263 lost in 900 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 393 won, 102 drawn, 26 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 205 won, 412 drawn, 205 lost in 822 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 408 won, 87 drawn, 12 lost in 507 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 151 won, 444 drawn, 151 lost in 746 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 17 drawn, 22 lost in 65 matches | 638 won, 480 drawn, 638 lost in 1756 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 25 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 57 matches | 471 won, 416 drawn, 471 lost in 1358 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Celta Vigo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 24 conceded (89) | 783 scored, 783 conceded (2426) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 10 conceded (32) | 278 scored, 272 conceded (823) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (29) | 233 scored, 233 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 272 scored, 278 conceded (823) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 26(league sides: 1,281 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 598)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Elche | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| 45Since 18 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 74Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 50.90 | xG for | 99.63 |
| 60 | Goals scored | 104 |
| 76.99 | xG against | 90.00 |
| 74 | Goals conceded | 96 |
Elche
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Espanyol | 1.61 | 1.05 | 3–1 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Real Madrid | 0.78 | 3.61 | 2–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.84 | 2.39 | 1–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Real Sociedad | 2.47 | 0.58 | 2–3 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Racing Santander | 1.03 | 1.72 | 2–3 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Barcelona | 0.70 | 4.38 | 0–5 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1.23 | 0.34 | 1–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Girona | 0.18 | 0.58 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Getafe | 0.66 | 0.11 | 1–0 |
| 12 May 2026 | at Real Betis | 0.40 | 1.80 | 1–2 |
Celta Vigo
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Racing Santander | 2.14 | 0.75 | 5–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Malaga | 1.90 | 0.43 | 1–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Getafe | 1.03 | 0.65 | 1–1 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Real Sociedad | 0.43 | 1.05 | 0–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Athletic Club | 0.75 | 2.78 | 0–2 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | v Osasuna | 0.14 | 2.60 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Valencia | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Sevilla | 1.59 | 0.80 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.15 | 2.49 | 1–1 |
| 12 May 2026 | v Levante | 2.18 | 1.52 | 2–3 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Elche | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 5 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 8.10 | xPts | 8.95 |
| 8.66 | xG for | 7.05 |
| 14.07 | xG against | 8.84 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Elche and Celta Vigo
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 11 Oct 2026, 11:57 BST · not changed since
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