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La Liga
Espanyol
0–1Finished
Atletico Madrid
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 BSTMatchday 9

Espanyol v Atletico Madrid match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Atletico Madrid are modelled as 51% likely to win, with Espanyol at 23% and a draw at 26%. The visitors have won five straight and hold an expected goals advantage of 0.62, though injuries and unconfirmed lineups add uncertainty.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 23%Espanyol win
  • 26%Draw
  • 51%Atletico Madrid win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

EspanyolEspanyol

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Espanyol won 20 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 248 of 313.
  • Atletico Madrid won 3 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Atletico Madrid's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Espanyol 1, draws 4, Atletico Madrid 3

Goals: Espanyol 11, Atletico Madrid 14

DateMatchScore
21 Feb 2026Atletico Madrid v Espanyol4–2
17 Aug 2025Espanyol v Atletico Madrid2–1
29 Mar 2025Espanyol v Atletico Madrid1–1
28 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid v Espanyol0–0
24 May 2023Espanyol v Atletico Madrid3–3
6 Nov 2022Atletico Madrid v Espanyol1–1
17 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid v Espanyol2–1
12 Sep 2021Espanyol v Atletico Madrid1–2

Home and away

Espanyol

Espanyol at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostElche18 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnSevilla6 Sep 20261–1
  • LostReal Madrid22 Aug 20261–2
  • WonLevante16 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnReal Sociedad23 May 20261–1

Espanyol: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonAlaves10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonReal Sociedad13 Sep 20263–0
  • LostLiverpoolUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20261–2
  • LostAthletic Club5 Sep 20260–3
  • WonSevilla29 Aug 20263–1

Atletico Madrid: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Espanyol
Last match
8 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Malaga · La Liga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga
Atletico Madrid
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Espanyol

ScoreEspanyolLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 37 matches757 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first2 won, 6 drawn, 26 lost in 34 matches143 won, 246 drawn, 757 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 34 matches342 won, 372 drawn, 342 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches263 won, 378 drawn, 263 lost in 904 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches205 won, 416 drawn, 205 lost in 826 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches151 won, 448 drawn, 151 lost in 750 matches
Level after 15 minutes19 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 52 matches639 won, 484 drawn, 639 lost in 1762 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 46 matches471 won, 420 drawn, 471 lost in 1362 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreEspanyolLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 26 conceded (75)788 scored, 788 conceded (2438)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (23)280 scored, 275 conceded (827)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (26)233 scored, 233 conceded (784)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 7 conceded (26)275 scored, 280 conceded (827)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 1, by full time 13(league sides: 1,287 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 602)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

EspanyolAtletico Madrid
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
84.32xG for125.96
85Goals scored135
101.63xG against82.87
104Goals conceded77

Espanyol

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Espanyol: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026at Malaga1.080.691–1
18 Sep 2026v Elche1.051.611–3
15 Sep 2026at Rayo Vallecano1.491.521–2
12 Sep 2026at Osasuna1.431.052–0
6 Sep 2026v Sevilla1.230.531–1
29 Aug 2026at Real Sociedad0.771.821–2
22 Aug 2026v Real Madrid1.052.711–2
16 Aug 2026v Levante1.550.283–0
23 May 2026v Real Sociedad2.411.401–1
17 May 2026at Osasuna0.791.722–1

Atletico Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atletico Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Alaves2.051.302–1
20 Sep 2026v Real Madrid2.350.302–1
16 Sep 2026v Osasuna3.990.484–0
13 Sep 2026at Real Sociedad2.050.273–0
5 Sep 2026at Athletic Club1.021.410–3
29 Aug 2026at Sevilla0.930.903–1
23 Aug 2026v Villarreal0.783.602–2
19 Aug 2026v Malaga0.920.152–0
24 May 2026at Villarreal1.162.481–5
17 May 2026v Girona1.972.171–0

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

EspanyolAtletico Madrid
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
8Points in those matches19
11.10xPts14.61
9.65xG for14.09
10.21xG against8.41

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Espanyol and Atletico Madrid

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • EspanyolEspanyol
    Ruled out
    K. Garcia (Hamstring Injury) · Jofre (Groin Injury)
  • Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
    Ruled out
    J. Cardoso (Illness) · Koke (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:57 BST · not changed since

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