LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Ligue 1
Estac Troyes
1–3Finished
Lens
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Estac Troyes v Lens match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Lens are favoured at 50% to win, compared with 25% for a Troyes victory and 25% for a draw. The model expects 2.91 goals and a gap of 0.57 in Lens's favour in expected goals. Troyes have lost their last four matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 25%Estac Troyes win
  • 25%Draw
  • 50%Lens win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Estac TroyesEstac Troyes

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

LensLens

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 232.
  • Lens won 31 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Lens won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Lens's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Estac Troyes 0, draws 1, Lens 4

Goals: Estac Troyes 4, Lens 13

DateMatchScore
4 Feb 2026Estac Troyes v LensCoupe de France2–4
28 Jan 2023Estac Troyes v Lens1–1
9 Sep 2022Lens v Estac Troyes1–0
14 May 2022Estac Troyes v Lens1–3
5 Nov 2021Lens v Estac Troyes4–0

Home and away

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostMarseille11 Oct 20260–2
  • LostStrasbourg6 Sep 20262–6
  • DrawnParis FC22 Aug 20260–0
  • WonLavalLigue 22 May 20264–0
  • WonBoulogneLigue 218 Apr 20261–0

Estac Troyes: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Lens

Lens away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostMonaco18 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLe Mans13 Sep 20262–2
  • WonSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20263–2
  • LostStrasbourg29 Aug 20261–2
  • WonLyon17 May 20264–0

Lens: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Estac Troyes
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
Lens
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Sporting CP · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lens

ScoreLensLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches635 won, 165 drawn, 111 lost in 911 matches
Conceded first7 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 31 matches111 won, 165 drawn, 635 lost in 911 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches312 won, 83 drawn, 41 lost in 436 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches312 won, 82 drawn, 29 lost in 423 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches176 won, 282 drawn, 176 lost in 634 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 4 drawn, 9 lost in 22 matches140 won, 296 drawn, 140 lost in 576 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 6 drawn, 18 lost in 51 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 37 matches347 won, 314 drawn, 347 lost in 1008 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLensLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 19 conceded (69)651 scored, 651 conceded (1960)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 4 conceded (30)274 scored, 222 conceded (705)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 11 conceded (20)155 scored, 155 conceded (550)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,060 times, within 15 minutes 160, by full time 463)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Estac TroyesLens
—Matches with xG67
—xG for122.66
—Goals scored112
—xG against93.71
—Goals conceded80

Lens

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lens: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026v Lyon1.341.042–1
18 Sep 2026at Monaco1.191.751–2
13 Sep 2026at Le Mans1.622.592–2
5 Sep 2026v Lorient1.241.600–1
29 Aug 2026at Strasbourg2.911.831–2
22 Aug 2026v Auxerre4.411.845–2
17 May 2026at Lyon1.541.914–0
13 May 2026v Paris Saint Germain2.871.220–2
8 May 2026v Nantes0.821.251–0
2 May 2026at Nice1.531.071–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Estac TroyesLens
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
4Points in those matches7
6.17xPts9.08
7.94xG for12.71
11.10xG against10.65

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Estac Troyes and Lens

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
    Ruled out
    Y. Kone (Knee Injury) · A. Ouzenadji (Knee Injury) · Y. Titi (Leg Injury)
    Doubtful
    I. Boura (Hip Injury)
  • LensLens
    Ruled out
    J. Chavez (Thigh Injury) · J. Gradit (Muscle Injury) · M. Nawrocki (Knee Injury) · A. Sima (Muscle Injury) · M. Udol (Red Card)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

All fixtures