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Ligue 1
Estac Troyes
0–2Finished
Marseille
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 6

Estac Troyes v Marseille match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Marseille are slight favourites at 41% to win despite losing their last five matches, while Troyes have a 33% chance at home. Both teams are in poor form, and the model expects around 3 goals in the match.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 33%Estac Troyes win
  • 26%Draw
  • 41%Marseille win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Estac TroyesEstac Troyes

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

MarseilleMarseille

Last 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 231.
  • Marseille won 29 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Marseille won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Not both teams scored in 8 of Marseille's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Estac Troyes 0, draws 1, Marseille 3

Goals: Estac Troyes 2, Marseille 7

DateMatchScore
16 Apr 2023Marseille v Estac Troyes3–1
11 Jan 2023Estac Troyes v Marseille0–2
27 Feb 2022Estac Troyes v Marseille1–1
28 Nov 2021Marseille v Estac Troyes1–0

Home and away

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostStrasbourg6 Sep 20262–6
  • DrawnParis FC22 Aug 20260–0
  • WonLavalLigue 22 May 20264–0
  • WonBoulogneLigue 218 Apr 20261–0
  • WonDunkerqueLigue 221 Mar 20265–1

Estac Troyes: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Marseille

Marseille away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBeşiktaşUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20261–4
  • LostRennes11 Sep 20260–1
  • LostMonaco30 Aug 20260–2
  • WonLe Havre10 May 20261–0
  • LostNantes2 May 20260–3

Marseille: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Estac Troyes
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Angers · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1
Marseille
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
Next match
4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Olympiakos Piraeus · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Marseille

ScoreMarseilleLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 38 matches633 won, 165 drawn, 110 lost in 908 matches
Conceded first9 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 37 matches110 won, 165 drawn, 633 lost in 908 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 2 drawn, 11 lost in 28 matches252 won, 276 drawn, 252 lost in 780 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches267 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 274 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 50 matches510 won, 354 drawn, 510 lost in 1374 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 2 drawn, 16 lost in 35 matches345 won, 314 drawn, 345 lost in 1004 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMarseilleLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 34 conceded (75)646 scored, 646 conceded (1954)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 17 conceded (37)272 scored, 219 conceded (702)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 8 conceded (22)219 scored, 272 conceded (702)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 16(league sides: 1,057 times, within 15 minutes 160, by full time 462)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

Estac TroyesMarseille
—Matches with xG66
—xG for125.06
—Goals scored128
—xG against95.31
—Goals conceded92

Marseille

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Marseille: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.804.331–2
11 Sep 2026at Rennes1.341.880–1
6 Sep 2026v Paris FC1.423.292–3
30 Aug 2026at Monaco1.401.720–2
21 Aug 2026v Strasbourg1.860.184–0
17 May 2026v Rennes2.922.493–1
10 May 2026at Le Havre1.211.141–0
2 May 2026at Nantes1.363.420–3
26 Apr 2026v Nice2.321.461–1
18 Apr 2026at Lorient1.651.330–2

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Estac TroyesMarseille
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches3
4.98xPts5.71
6.88xG for7.82
9.80xG against11.40

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Estac Troyes and Marseille

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Estac TroyesEstac TroyesI. Boura (Hip Injury) · Y. Kone (Injury) · A. Ouzenadji (Injury) · Y. Titi (Leg Injury)
  • MarseilleMarseilleD. Cornelius (Hip Injury) · P. Hojbjerg (Muscle Injury) · T. Weah (Red Card) · G. Kondogbia (Thigh Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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