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Premier League
Everton
0–2Finished
Chelsea
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BSTMatchday 7

Everton v Chelsea match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Everton and Chelsea are evenly matched with the model giving the home side a slight advantage at 37% to win. Expected goals are nearly balanced at 2.77 total, and recent form for both teams is inconsistent with multiple draws and losses in their last five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 37%Everton win
  • 27%Draw
  • 36%Chelsea win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

EvertonEverton

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

ChelseaChelsea

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Everton won 22 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 265.
  • Chelsea won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Chelsea's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Everton 3, draws 3, Chelsea 4

Goals: Everton 9, Chelsea 13

DateMatchScore
21 Mar 2026Everton v Chelsea3–0
13 Dec 2025Chelsea v Everton2–0
26 Apr 2025Chelsea v Everton1–0
22 Dec 2024Everton v Chelsea0–0
15 Apr 2024Chelsea v Everton6–0
10 Dec 2023Everton v Chelsea2–0
18 Mar 2023Chelsea v Everton2–2
6 Aug 2022Everton v Chelsea0–1
1 May 2022Everton v Chelsea1–0
16 Dec 2021Chelsea v Everton1–1

Home and away

Everton

Everton at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonIpswich19 Sep 20261–0
  • WonWolvesLeague Cup16 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnManchester United6 Sep 20262–2
  • WonCrystal Palace22 Aug 20262–0
  • LostSunderland17 May 20261–3

Everton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Chelsea

Chelsea away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostBrentford18 Sep 20260–3
  • LostArsenal6 Sep 20261–2
  • WonFulham24 Aug 20263–2
  • LostSunderland24 May 20261–2
  • DrawnLiverpool9 May 20261–1

Chelsea: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Everton
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Hull City · Premier League
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · Premier League
Chelsea
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · Premier League
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Tottenham · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Everton

ScoreEvertonLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches734 won, 239 drawn, 168 lost in 1141 matches
Conceded first3 won, 12 drawn, 21 lost in 36 matches168 won, 239 drawn, 734 lost in 1141 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches299 won, 326 drawn, 299 lost in 924 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 22 drawn, 19 lost in 59 matches610 won, 454 drawn, 610 lost in 1674 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 19 drawn, 14 lost in 45 matches424 won, 384 drawn, 424 lost in 1232 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreEvertonLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 24 conceded (75)870 scored, 870 conceded (2400)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (24)312 scored, 326 conceded (876)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (26)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 4 conceded (25)326 scored, 312 conceded (876)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 18(league sides: 1,354 times, within 15 minutes 230, by full time 650)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

EvertonChelsea
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
91.03xG for129.39
90Goals scored121
99.52xG against103.05
84Goals conceded100

Everton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Everton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Hull City1.681.332–2
19 Sep 2026v Ipswich2.241.441–0
12 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.110.690–0
6 Sep 2026v Manchester United1.010.692–2
29 Aug 2026at Bournemouth1.842.161–1
22 Aug 2026v Crystal Palace1.121.962–0
24 May 2026at Tottenham0.411.150–1
17 May 2026v Sunderland1.040.761–3
10 May 2026at Crystal Palace1.592.562–2
4 May 2026v Manchester City2.721.543–3

Chelsea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Chelsea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Bournemouth1.101.385–1
18 Sep 2026at Brentford0.832.650–3
12 Sep 2026v Hull City0.911.382–2
6 Sep 2026at Arsenal0.392.051–2
30 Aug 2026v Brighton2.931.414–3
24 Aug 2026at Fulham2.241.333–2
24 May 2026at Sunderland0.891.841–2
19 May 2026v Tottenham0.631.722–1
9 May 2026at Liverpool0.500.561–1
4 May 2026v Nottingham Forest2.152.051–3

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

EvertonChelsea
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
10Points in those matches10
8.83xPts7.11
9.00xG for8.40
8.27xG against10.20

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Everton and Chelsea

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • EvertonEverton
    Doubtful
    V. Mykolenko (Knock)
  • ChelseaChelsea
    Ruled out
    J. Gittens (Ankle Injury) · R. James (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. Emegha (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since

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