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Eredivisie
Excelsior
1–5Finished
Groningen
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:45 BSTMatchday 8

Excelsior v Groningen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Excelsior are narrow favourites at 40% to win, with Groningen's chances at 36%. Groningen are severely weakened by four confirmed absences and a questionable player, while Excelsior have won two of their last five. The model expects 3.68 goals.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Excelsior win
  • 24%Draw
  • 36%Groningen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

GroningenGroningen

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Excelsior avoided defeat in 10 of 22 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Groningen won 24 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Groningen won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Excelsior's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Excelsior 2, draws 1, Groningen 3

Goals: Excelsior 6, Groningen 11

DateMatchScore
2 May 2026Groningen v Excelsior2–3
5 Dec 2025Excelsior v Groningen0–2
16 Jan 2024Excelsior v GroningenKNVB Beker0–2
25 Feb 2023Groningen v Excelsior3–0
8 Jan 2023Excelsior v Groningen1–0
15 Dec 2021Excelsior v GroningenKNVB Beker2–2 AET 2–4

Home and away

Excelsior

Excelsior at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostUtrecht13 Sep 20261–2
  • WonSparta Rotterdam29 Aug 20262–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven15 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnFC Volendam10 May 20261–1
  • WonUtrecht26 Apr 20265–0

Excelsior: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Groningen

Groningen away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnGO Ahead Eagles12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven23 Aug 20261–5
  • WonADO Den Haag16 Aug 20264–1
  • LostAjax21 May 20260–2
  • WonHeracles17 May 20262–1

Groningen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Excelsior
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Ajax · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Heerenveen · Eredivisie
Groningen
Last match
23 days before18 Sep 2026 · v PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Excelsior

Since 9 Aug 2025

ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
Conceded first1 won, 9 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches116 won, 222 drawn, 640 lost in 978 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 24 matches478 won, 392 drawn, 478 lost in 1348 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 11 conceded (41)745 scored, 745 conceded (2038)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 27 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 14(league sides: 1,162 times, within 15 minutes 197, by full time 534)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Groningen

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreGroningenLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches640 won, 222 drawn, 116 lost in 978 matches
Conceded first1 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches116 won, 222 drawn, 640 lost in 978 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches228 won, 294 drawn, 228 lost in 750 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches478 won, 392 drawn, 478 lost in 1348 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches338 won, 312 drawn, 338 lost in 988 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGroningenLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 21 conceded (68)745 scored, 745 conceded (2038)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 7 conceded (26)329 scored, 236 conceded (759)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (26)236 scored, 329 conceded (759)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,162 times, within 15 minutes 197, by full time 534)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ExcelsiorGroningen
41Since 9 Aug 2025Matches with xG68Since 20 Oct 2024
55.41xG for100.21
58Goals scored93
70.12xG against96.32
65Goals conceded102

Excelsior

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Excelsior: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Ajax0.822.512–2
13 Sep 2026v Utrecht0.611.421–2
8 Sep 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.811.362–2
5 Sep 2026at Willem II1.600.863–0
29 Aug 2026v Sparta Rotterdam1.321.032–1
15 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.512.241–2
7 Aug 2026at Cambuur3.350.704–0
17 May 2026at Sparta Rotterdam0.951.763–2
10 May 2026v FC Volendam0.380.461–1
2 May 2026at Groningen2.380.873–2

Groningen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Groningen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle1.390.433–0
12 Sep 2026at GO Ahead Eagles0.162.231–1
6 Sep 2026v Twente1.482.302–2
28 Aug 2026v Fortuna Sittard1.600.882–3
23 Aug 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.094.401–5
16 Aug 2026at ADO Den Haag3.201.014–1
9 Aug 2026v Utrecht1.552.272–1
21 May 2026at Ajax0.161.830–2
17 May 2026at Heracles1.170.642–1
10 May 2026v NEC Nijmegen1.561.082–1

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

ExcelsiorGroningen
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
11Points in those matches11
9.41xPts8.78
10.02xG for10.47
10.12xG against13.52

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Excelsior and Groningen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ExcelsiorExcelsior
    Doubtful
    N. Naujoks (Injury)
  • GroningenGroningen
    Ruled out
    T. Hernes (Injury) · M. Jeng (Leg Injury) · T. Mercera (Injury) · E. van der Laan (Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Metu (Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 15:22 BST · not changed since

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