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Eredivisie
Excelsior
0–9Finished
Twente
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:30 GMTMatchday 11 · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior v Twente match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Twente arrive as strong favourites with a 48% chance of victory against Excelsior's 28%. Twente's form is sharper with two recent wins while Excelsior have won just one of five. The visitors' expected goals (1.75) exceed the hosts' (1.28), a gap of 0.47 in Twente's favour, though Twente are without four players and have two defensive doubts.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 28%Excelsior win
  • 25%Draw
  • 47%Twente win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. won3–0at MVV
  2. lost0–1at Fortuna Sittard
  3. lost0–4at Heerenveen
  4. lost1–5v Groningen
  5. drew2–2at Ajax
TwenteTwente

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0at AZ Alkmaar
  2. lost1–2v Utrecht
  3. drew1–1at Fortuna Sittard
  4. won3–2v PSV Eindhoven
  5. won2–0v ADO Den Haag

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Excelsior avoided defeat in 10 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Twente won 29 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Twente won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Twente unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Excelsior 1, draws 2, Twente 3

Goals: Excelsior 3, Twente 11

DateMatchScore
24 Jan 2026Twente v Excelsior0–0
30 Aug 2025Excelsior v Twente1–0
10 Feb 2024Excelsior v Twente0–3
8 Dec 2023Twente v Excelsior4–2
1 Apr 2023Excelsior v Twente0–0
31 Aug 2022Twente v Excelsior4–0

Home and away

Excelsior

Excelsior at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostGroningen11 Oct 20261–5
  • LostUtrecht13 Sep 20261–2
  • WonSparta Rotterdam29 Aug 20262–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven15 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnFC Volendam10 May 20261–1

Excelsior: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Twente

Twente away

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonAZ Alkmaar25 Oct 20262–0
  • WonLincoln Red Imps FCUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20264–1
  • DrawnFortuna Sittard10 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnGroningen6 Sep 20262–2
  • WonCambuur30 Aug 20264–1

Twente: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Excelsior
Last match
4 days before28 Oct 2026 · v MVV · KNVB Beker
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie
Twente
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
Next match
4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Pafos · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Excelsior

Since 9 Aug 2025

ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
Conceded first1 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 25 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 655 lost in 1004 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 25 matches490 won, 400 drawn, 490 lost in 1380 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 15 conceded (45)765 scored, 765 conceded (2090)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (21)243 scored, 337 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 15(league sides: 1,193 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Twente

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreTwenteLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 47 matches655 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1004 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 29 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 655 lost in 1004 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches299 won, 104 drawn, 53 lost in 456 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches170 won, 290 drawn, 170 lost in 630 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches278 won, 97 drawn, 18 lost in 393 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches310 won, 95 drawn, 4 lost in 409 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches77 won, 344 drawn, 77 lost in 498 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 54 matches490 won, 400 drawn, 490 lost in 1380 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches267 won, 100 drawn, 62 lost in 429 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches342 won, 320 drawn, 342 lost in 1004 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTwenteLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 24 conceded (79)765 scored, 765 conceded (2090)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 12 conceded (35)337 scored, 243 conceded (778)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 7 conceded (22)185 scored, 185 conceded (534)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (22)243 scored, 337 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,193 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ExcelsiorTwente
44Since 9 Aug 2025Matches with xG69Since 2 Nov 2024
58.26xG for122.82
59Goals scored121
76.72xG against85.43
75Goals conceded93

Excelsior

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Excelsior: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Fortuna Sittard0.390.740–1
16 Oct 2026at Heerenveen0.722.800–4
11 Oct 2026v Groningen1.743.061–5
19 Sep 2026at Ajax0.822.512–2
13 Sep 2026v Utrecht0.611.421–2
8 Sep 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.811.362–2
5 Sep 2026at Willem II1.600.863–0
29 Aug 2026v Sparta Rotterdam1.321.032–1
15 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.512.241–2
7 Aug 2026at Cambuur3.350.704–0

Twente

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Twente: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at AZ Alkmaar2.041.242–0
18 Oct 2026v Utrecht1.361.251–2
10 Oct 2026at Fortuna Sittard1.150.951–1
20 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven2.401.023–2
12 Sep 2026v ADO Den Haag2.810.542–0
9 Sep 2026v Telstar2.650.521–0
6 Sep 2026at Groningen2.301.482–2
30 Aug 2026at Cambuur1.760.474–1
16 Aug 2026v PEC Zwolle2.080.683–1
9 Aug 2026at Heerenveen1.780.390–1

Twente: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

ExcelsiorTwente
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
11Points in those matches20
11.45xPts21.10
12.87xG for20.33
16.72xG against8.54

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Excelsior and Twente

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ExcelsiorExcelsiorNo injuries or suspensions reported.
  • TwenteTwente
    Ruled out
    M. Bruns (Inactive) · S. Lemkin (Muscle Injury) · F. Thorvaldsen (Inactive) · D. Weidmann (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    L. Unnerstall (Inactive) · B. van Rooij (Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 12:27 GMT · not changed since

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