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Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
2–2Finished
Bayern München
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BST

FC Augsburg v Bayern München match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 14%FC Augsburg win
  • 17%Draw
  • 69%Bayern München win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FC AugsburgFC Augsburg

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • FC Augsburg won 17 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 147 of 194.
  • Bayern München won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • FC Augsburg unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: FC Augsburg 2, draws 0, Bayern München 8

Goals: FC Augsburg 14, Bayern München 27

DateMatchScore
24 Jan 2026Bayern München v FC Augsburg1–2
30 Aug 2025FC Augsburg v Bayern München2–3
4 Apr 2025FC Augsburg v Bayern München1–3
22 Nov 2024Bayern München v FC Augsburg3–0
27 Jan 2024FC Augsburg v Bayern München2–3
27 Aug 2023Bayern München v FC Augsburg3–1
11 Mar 2023Bayern München v FC Augsburg5–3
19 Oct 2022FC Augsburg v Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal2–5
17 Sep 2022FC Augsburg v Bayern München1–0
9 Apr 2022Bayern München v FC Augsburg1–0

Home and away

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnBayer Leverkusen12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonFC Schalke 0430 Aug 20263–0
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach9 May 20263–1
  • DrawnEintracht Frankfurt25 Apr 20261–1
  • Drawn1899 Hoffenheim10 Apr 20262–2

FC Augsburg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Bayern München

Bayern München away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSV Elversberg13 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnFC Schalke 045 Sep 20260–0
  • WonVfL OsnabrückDFB Pokal2 Sep 20264–1
  • WonVfL Wolfsburg9 May 20261–0
  • LostParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League28 Apr 20264–5

Bayern München: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FC Augsburg
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Bayern München
Last match
22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Union Berlin · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Viking · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FC Augsburg

ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches591 won, 194 drawn, 125 lost in 910 matches
Conceded first6 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches125 won, 194 drawn, 591 lost in 910 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches194 won, 286 drawn, 194 lost in 674 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 15 lost in 48 matches479 won, 354 drawn, 479 lost in 1312 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 34 matches314 won, 308 drawn, 314 lost in 936 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
All matches17 scored, 22 conceded (66)691 scored, 691 conceded (1922)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 10 conceded (23)293 scored, 258 conceded (722)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 3 conceded (20)140 scored, 140 conceded (478)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (23)258 scored, 293 conceded (722)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

FC AugsburgBayern München
66Matches with xG66
79.04xG for180.20
82Goals scored215
113.47xG against65.10
103Goals conceded63

FC Augsburg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FC Augsburg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.122.782–3
12 Sep 2026v Bayer Leverkusen1.112.642–2
6 Sep 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.132.224–1
30 Aug 2026v FC Schalke 043.722.103–0
16 May 2026at Union Berlin0.613.680–4
9 May 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach2.591.143–1
2 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.571.353–1
25 Apr 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.001.111–1
18 Apr 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.333.802–1
10 Apr 2026v 1899 Hoffenheim1.930.992–2

Bayern München

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayern München: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.710.347–0
13 Sep 2026at SV Elversberg2.830.942–1
5 Sep 2026at FC Schalke 041.940.210–0
28 Aug 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.060.795–1
16 May 2026v 1. FC Köln3.050.985–1
9 May 2026at VfL Wolfsburg1.853.041–0
2 May 2026v 1. FC Heidenheim2.312.593–3
25 Apr 2026at FSV Mainz 052.212.694–3
19 Apr 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.611.354–2
11 Apr 2026at FC St. Pauli3.840.495–0

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FC Augsburg and Bayern München

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FC AugsburgFC AugsburgN. Banks (Knee Injury) · T. Breithaupt (Toe Injury) · S. Mounie (Injury) · S. Suso (Muscle Injury)
  • Bayern MünchenBayern MünchenT. Buchmann (Knee Injury) · J. Musiala (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:32 BST · not changed since

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