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Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
1–1Finished
Union Berlin
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 7 · WWK Arena, Augsburg

FC Augsburg v Union Berlin match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Augsburg a 53% chance of winning this Bundesliga encounter. Augsburg's expected goals of 1.89 exceed Union's 1.2, and Union are in poor form with three straight defeats. However, Union have multiple players doubtful through illness and injury, adding uncertainty to team selection.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 53%FC Augsburg win
  • 24%Draw
  • 23%Union Berlin win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FC AugsburgFC Augsburg

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Union BerlinUnion Berlin

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • FC Augsburg won 17 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Union Berlin won 14 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • FC Augsburg won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • FC Augsburg unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: FC Augsburg 4, draws 4, Union Berlin 2

Goals: FC Augsburg 12, Union Berlin 10

DateMatchScore
16 May 2026Union Berlin v FC Augsburg4–0
15 Jan 2026FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1–1
17 May 2025FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1–2
15 Jan 2025Union Berlin v FC Augsburg0–2
12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg v Union Berlin2–0
25 Nov 2023Union Berlin v FC Augsburg1–1
6 May 2023FC Augsburg v Union Berlin1–0
9 Nov 2022Union Berlin v FC Augsburg2–2
5 Feb 2022FC Augsburg v Union Berlin2–0
11 Sep 2021Union Berlin v FC Augsburg0–0

Home and away

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnBayern München10 Oct 20262–2
  • DrawnBayer Leverkusen12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonFC Schalke 0430 Aug 20263–0
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach9 May 20263–1
  • DrawnEintracht Frankfurt25 Apr 20261–1

FC Augsburg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Union Berlin

Union Berlin away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostBayern München18 Sep 20260–7
  • LostBayer Leverkusen5 Sep 20260–4
  • WonEintracht BraunschweigDFB Pokal23 Aug 20264–2
  • WonFSV Mainz 0510 May 20263–1
  • LostRB Leipzig24 Apr 20261–3

Union Berlin: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 29 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FC Augsburg
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · DFB Pokal
Union Berlin
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · DFB Pokal

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FC Augsburg

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches604 won, 196 drawn, 127 lost in 927 matches
Conceded first6 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches127 won, 196 drawn, 604 lost in 927 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches203 won, 288 drawn, 203 lost in 694 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches153 won, 286 drawn, 153 lost in 592 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches73 won, 338 drawn, 73 lost in 484 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 14 lost in 47 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches319 won, 310 drawn, 319 lost in 948 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFC AugsburgLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 24 conceded (67)707 scored, 707 conceded (1958)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (24)296 scored, 266 conceded (733)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 3 conceded (20)145 scored, 145 conceded (492)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 10 conceded (23)266 scored, 296 conceded (733)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,123 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 512)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Union Berlin

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreUnion BerlinLeague sides
Scored first14 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches604 won, 196 drawn, 127 lost in 927 matches
Conceded first3 won, 10 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches127 won, 196 drawn, 604 lost in 927 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches203 won, 288 drawn, 203 lost in 694 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 20 matches55 won, 92 drawn, 268 lost in 415 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches153 won, 286 drawn, 153 lost in 592 matches
2+ goals down after 60 minutes0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches6 won, 14 drawn, 296 lost in 316 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches104 won, 294 drawn, 104 lost in 502 matches
2+ goals down after 70 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches3 won, 7 drawn, 330 lost in 340 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 16 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches319 won, 310 drawn, 319 lost in 948 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreUnion BerlinLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 22 conceded (67)707 scored, 707 conceded (1958)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (20)145 scored, 145 conceded (492)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 14 conceded (35)266 scored, 296 conceded (733)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 15(league sides: 1,123 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 512)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
67Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 27 Oct 2024
84.36xG for83.00
86Goals scored77
121.31xG against106.54
106Goals conceded121

FC Augsburg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FC Augsburg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at SV Elversberg3.513.693–4
10 Oct 2026v Bayern München2.374.962–2
19 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.122.782–3
12 Sep 2026v Bayer Leverkusen1.112.642–2
6 Sep 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.132.224–1
30 Aug 2026v FC Schalke 043.722.103–0
16 May 2026at Union Berlin0.613.680–4
9 May 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach2.591.143–1
2 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.571.353–1
25 Apr 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.001.111–1

Union Berlin

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Union Berlin: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.901.420–0
10 Oct 2026v SV Elversberg1.130.241–0
18 Sep 2026at Bayern München0.343.710–7
11 Sep 2026v FC Schalke 041.952.521–3
5 Sep 2026at Bayer Leverkusen0.393.110–4
29 Aug 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.841.473–3
16 May 2026v FC Augsburg3.680.614–0
10 May 2026at FSV Mainz 052.681.573–1
2 May 2026v 1. FC Köln1.151.752–2
24 Apr 2026at RB Leipzig0.194.491–3

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
8Points in those matches5
5.83xPts6.05
12.96xG for6.55
18.39xG against12.47

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FC Augsburg and Union Berlin

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
    Ruled out
    N. Banks (Knee Injury) · S. Mounie (Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Claude-Maurice (Muscle Injury)
  • Union BerlinUnion Berlin
    Ruled out
    A. Ilic (Illness) · A. Markgraf (Knee Injury) · S. Nsoki (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Imeri (Injury) · J. Juranovic (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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