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Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04
0–1Finished
FSV Mainz 05
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 6

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Mainz hold a 43% chance of victory against 31% for Schalke, though a draw is also possible at 26%. Both teams arrive with injury concerns; Mainz are particularly stretched in defence and between the posts. The model expects 2.87 goals.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 31%FC Schalke 04 win
  • 26%Draw
  • 43%FSV Mainz 05 win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • FSV Mainz 05 won 20 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • FC Schalke 04 unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • FSV Mainz 05 unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: FC Schalke 04 2, draws 0, FSV Mainz 05 0

Goals: FC Schalke 04 4, FSV Mainz 05 2

DateMatchScore
5 May 2023FSV Mainz 05 v FC Schalke 042–3
9 Nov 2022FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 051–0

Home and away

FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnSV Elversberg20 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnBayern München5 Sep 20260–0
  • WonEintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga17 May 20261–0
  • WonFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga2 May 20261–0
  • WonPreußen Münster2. Bundesliga19 Apr 20264–1

FC Schalke 04: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 away

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach19 Sep 20264–3
  • WonHamburger SV6 Sep 20265–0
  • WonKrieschowDFB Pokal23 Aug 20269–0
  • Won1. FC Heidenheim16 May 20262–0
  • WonFC St. Pauli3 May 20262–1

FSV Mainz 05: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FC Schalke 04
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FSV Mainz 05

ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
Scored first20 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 32 matches599 won, 195 drawn, 125 lost in 919 matches
Conceded first4 won, 7 drawn, 20 lost in 31 matches125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches266 won, 92 drawn, 55 lost in 413 matches
Level after 15 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 14 lost in 40 matches483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
All matches20 scored, 28 conceded (67)700 scored, 700 conceded (1940)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 17 conceded (30)295 scored, 262 conceded (728)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 4 conceded (20)262 scored, 295 conceded (728)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05
—Matches with xG67
—xG for110.16
—Goals scored101
—xG against103.24
—Goals conceded96

FSV Mainz 05

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FSV Mainz 05: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.132.093–4
19 Sep 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.823.244–3
12 Sep 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.122.041–3
6 Sep 2026at Hamburger SV2.770.195–0
29 Aug 2026v SC Paderborn 071.230.730–0
16 May 2026at 1. FC Heidenheim3.712.532–0
10 May 2026v Union Berlin1.572.681–3
3 May 2026at FC St. Pauli2.540.842–1
25 Apr 2026v Bayern München2.692.213–4
19 Apr 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.320.621–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
5Points in those matches7
4.65xPts9.13
6.16xG for12.07
9.77xG against8.29

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
    Ruled out
    M. Sylla (Leg Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. Ljubicic (Knee Injury)
  • FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
    Ruled out
    D. Kohr (Foot Injury) · O. Ruoppi (Knee Injury) · Silas (Broken shinbone) · R. Zentner (Hand Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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