Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Fenerbahçe are strong home favourites with a 70% win probability against Alanyaspor. The model expects 3.05 goals overall, with Fenerbahçe's 2.23 expected goals substantially outpacing their visitors' 0.82.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 70%Fenerbahçe win
- 19%Draw
- 11%Alanyaspor win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
FenerbahçeLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
AlanyasporLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Fenerbahçe won 45 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Alanyaspor won 18 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Fenerbahçe won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Fenerbahçe's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Fenerbahçe 7, draws 2, Alanyaspor 1
Goals: Fenerbahçe 27, Alanyaspor 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe | 2–3 |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor | 2–2 |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe | 0–2 |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor | 3–0 |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor | 2–2 |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe | 0–1 |
| 19 Mar 2023 | Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe | 1–3 |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor | 5–0 |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Alanyaspor v Fenerbahçe | 2–5 |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor | 1–2 |
Home and away
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonEyüpspor20 Sep 20268–0
- DrawnAS RomaUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–1
- LostBeşiktaş5 Sep 20261–2
- WonKonyaspor22 Aug 20264–2
- DrawnLyonUEFA Champions League18 Aug 20261–1
Fenerbahçe: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 30 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
AlanyasporAlanyaspor away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonÇorum FK19 Sep 20262–1
- WonRizespor7 Sep 20261–0
- LostEyüpspor30 Aug 20261–2
- DrawnGaziantep FK15 Aug 20261–1
- LostFatih Karagümrük16 May 20261–2
Alanyaspor: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Fenerbahçe- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League
Alanyaspor- Last match
- 7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 6 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Kocaelispor · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Fenerbahçe
| Score | Fenerbahçe | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 45 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 56 matches | 666 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1010 matches |
| Conceded first | 13 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 37 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 666 lost in 1010 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 22 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 310 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 474 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 230 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 247 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 337 won, 100 drawn, 43 lost in 480 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 293 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 301 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 22 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 334 won, 86 drawn, 26 lost in 446 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 19 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches | 158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 33 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 33 matches | 326 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 330 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 357 won, 71 drawn, 11 lost in 439 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 21 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 36 won, 22 drawn, 11 lost in 69 matches | 545 won, 460 drawn, 545 lost in 1550 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 20 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches | 263 won, 99 drawn, 65 lost in 427 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 44 matches | 396 won, 356 drawn, 396 lost in 1148 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Fenerbahçe | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 46 scored, 20 conceded (101) | 741 scored, 741 conceded (2190) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 24 scored, 9 conceded (52) | 291 scored, 259 conceded (761) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 3 conceded (28) | 191 scored, 191 conceded (668) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 8 conceded (21) | 259 scored, 291 conceded (761) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 33(league sides: 1,166 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Alanyaspor
| Score | Alanyaspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 666 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1010 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 9 drawn, 16 lost in 27 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 666 lost in 1010 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 9 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 310 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 474 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 31 matches | 158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 11 won, 71 drawn, 357 lost in 439 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 21 drawn, 18 lost in 54 matches | 545 won, 460 drawn, 545 lost in 1550 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 15 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches | 396 won, 356 drawn, 396 lost in 1148 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alanyaspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 17 conceded (69) | 741 scored, 741 conceded (2190) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (30) | 191 scored, 191 conceded (668) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (22) | 259 scored, 291 conceded (761) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 16(league sides: 1,166 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Fenerbahçe | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Matches with xG | 69 |
| 144.53 | xG for | 78.73 |
| 170 | Goals scored | 85 |
| 67.25 | xG against | 91.55 |
| 77 | Goals conceded | 87 |
Fenerbahçe
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Rizespor | 0.96 | 1.52 | 3–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Eyüpspor | 5.14 | 0.72 | 8–0 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.34 | 0.49 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 0.59 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Samsunspor | 1.56 | 0.46 | 2–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Konyaspor | 2.36 | 2.15 | 4–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2.90 | 1.19 | 1–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Eyüpspor | 1.33 | 0.52 | 3–3 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Konyaspor | 3.19 | 0.64 | 3–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Başakşehir | 2.05 | 0.89 | 3–1 |
Alanyaspor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Erzurumspor FK | 0.98 | 1.69 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Çorum FK | 1.18 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Göztepe | 1.72 | 1.79 | 2–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Rizespor | 2.07 | 1.28 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 0.66 | 1.48 | 1–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 0.54 | 0.74 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Fatih Karagümrük | 0.74 | 1.78 | 1–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Kayserispor | 2.05 | 1.88 | 3–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Antalyaspor | 0.94 | 0.15 | 0–0 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Fenerbahçe | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 12 |
| 12.52 | xPts | 8.75 |
| 14.85 | xG for | 8.40 |
| 8.28 | xG against | 9.37 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Muldur (Knee Injury) · J. Oosterwolde (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Doubtful
- Maestro (Thigh Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 15:57 BST · not changed since
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