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Serie A
Fiorentina
2–2Finished
Atalanta
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 9 · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence

Fiorentina v Atalanta match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Thu 29 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Atalanta a 46% chance of winning, compared to 28% for Fiorentina and 27% for a draw. Atalanta's expected goals (1.57) exceed Fiorentina's (1.16), creating a gap of 0.41 in their favour. Fiorentina have lost three of their last five matches, while Atalanta have won just one of their last five; both teams are missing key players to injury.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 28%Fiorentina win
  • 26%Draw
  • 46%Atalanta win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FiorentinaFiorentina

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

AtalantaAtalanta

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Fiorentina won 24 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 31 Oct 2024.
  • Atalanta won 38 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 30 Oct 2024.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Atalanta's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Fiorentina 4, draws 2, Atalanta 4

Goals: Fiorentina 13, Atalanta 16

DateMatchScore
22 May 2026Fiorentina v Atalanta1–1
30 Nov 2025Atalanta v Fiorentina2–0
30 Mar 2025Fiorentina v Atalanta1–0
15 Sep 2024Atalanta v Fiorentina3–2
2 Jun 2024Atalanta v Fiorentina2–3
24 Apr 2024Atalanta v FiorentinaCoppa Italia4–1
3 Apr 2024Fiorentina v AtalantaCoppa Italia1–0
17 Sep 2023Fiorentina v Atalanta3–2
17 Apr 2023Fiorentina v Atalanta1–1
2 Oct 2022Atalanta v Fiorentina1–0

Home and away

Fiorentina

Fiorentina at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostComo18 Oct 20261–3
  • DrawnNapoli20 Sep 20261–1
  • WonPisaCoppa Italia15 Sep 20263–0
  • LostTorino5 Sep 20261–2
  • LostFrosinone29 Aug 20260–3

Fiorentina: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
6 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Atalanta

Atalanta away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostAjaxUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20260–2
  • LostAC Milan18 Oct 20262–3
  • LostJuventus20 Sep 20260–2
  • LostAS Roma5 Sep 20261–2
  • WonHapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20261–0

Atalanta: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Fiorentina
Last match
4 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
Next match
4 days after2 Nov 2026 · v Sassuolo · Serie A
Atalanta
Last match
4 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A
Next match
4 days after2 Nov 2026 · v Parma · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Fiorentina

Since 31 Oct 2024

ScoreFiorentinaLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 38 matches767 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1132 matches
Conceded first3 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches127 won, 238 drawn, 767 lost in 1132 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches325 won, 396 drawn, 325 lost in 1046 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches58 won, 123 drawn, 337 lost in 518 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches375 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 522 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches393 won, 96 drawn, 24 lost in 513 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches180 won, 450 drawn, 180 lost in 810 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches109 won, 490 drawn, 109 lost in 708 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 17 drawn, 22 lost in 56 matches625 won, 540 drawn, 625 lost in 1790 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 39 matches454 won, 426 drawn, 454 lost in 1334 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFiorentinaLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 21 conceded (78)717 scored, 717 conceded (2456)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (29)251 scored, 233 conceded (836)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (21)233 scored, 233 conceded (784)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 4 conceded (28)233 scored, 251 conceded (836)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,267 times, within 15 minutes 188, by full time 564)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Atalanta

Since 30 Oct 2024

ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
Scored first38 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 48 matches767 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1132 matches
Conceded first7 won, 12 drawn, 23 lost in 42 matches127 won, 238 drawn, 767 lost in 1132 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches325 won, 396 drawn, 325 lost in 1046 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches240 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 261 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 36 matches241 won, 408 drawn, 241 lost in 890 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches296 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 310 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches180 won, 450 drawn, 180 lost in 810 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches336 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 340 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches109 won, 490 drawn, 109 lost in 708 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 22 drawn, 20 lost in 70 matches625 won, 540 drawn, 625 lost in 1790 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 47 matches454 won, 426 drawn, 454 lost in 1334 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches60 won, 111 drawn, 296 lost in 467 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
All matches43 scored, 19 conceded (97)717 scored, 717 conceded (2456)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 8 conceded (37)251 scored, 233 conceded (836)
When level after 75 minutes15 scored, 8 conceded (32)233 scored, 233 conceded (784)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 3 conceded (28)233 scored, 251 conceded (836)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 26(league sides: 1,267 times, within 15 minutes 188, by full time 564)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

FiorentinaAtalanta
74Since 31 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 30 Oct 2024
96.74xG for117.29
87Goals scored119
96.48xG against88.74
101Goals conceded74

Fiorentina

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fiorentina: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Inter0.243.151–2
18 Oct 2026v Como2.111.591–3
10 Oct 2026at Genoa0.821.461–2
20 Sep 2026v Napoli1.141.401–1
11 Sep 2026at Venezia3.310.494–2
5 Sep 2026v Torino1.670.581–2
29 Aug 2026v Frosinone2.131.110–3
24 Aug 2026at AS Roma0.353.070–4
22 May 2026v Atalanta0.851.381–1
17 May 2026at Juventus0.471.982–0

Atalanta

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atalanta: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Frosinone3.881.954–4
18 Oct 2026at AC Milan1.742.582–3
12 Oct 2026v Venezia2.192.483–1
20 Sep 2026at Juventus0.601.310–2
12 Sep 2026v Cagliari1.741.321–2
5 Sep 2026at AS Roma0.702.971–2
31 Aug 2026v Bologna0.151.051–0
23 Aug 2026v Sassuolo0.882.702–1
22 May 2026at Fiorentina1.380.851–1
17 May 2026v Bologna0.760.690–1

Fiorentina: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

FiorentinaAtalanta
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
4Points in those matches10
10.98xPts8.18
11.77xG for11.88
12.85xG against16.36

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Fiorentina and Atalanta

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FiorentinaFiorentina
    Ruled out
    A. Atta (Abdominal strain) · F. Parisi (Knee Injury) · M. Pongracic (Muscle Injury) · R. Sottil (Back Injury)
    Doubtful
    L. Ranieri (Leg Injury)
  • AtalantaAtalanta
    Ruled out
    R. Bellanova (Thigh Injury) · I. Hien (Muscle Injury) · F. Kessie (Calf Injury) · S. Kolasinac (Thigh Injury) · O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury) · G. Raspadori (Thigh Injury) · G. Scamacca (Thigh Injury) · K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)

Published 29 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

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