Fiorentina v Como match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 26%Fiorentina win
- 27%Draw
- 47%Como win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
FiorentinaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
ComoLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Fiorentina won 24 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Como won 29 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Como won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Fiorentina's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
5 meetings: Fiorentina 2, draws 0, Como 3
Goals: Fiorentina 6, Como 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Como v Fiorentina | 1–2 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Fiorentina v ComoCoppa Italia | 1–3 |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Fiorentina v Como | 1–2 |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina v Como | 0–2 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Como v Fiorentina | 0–2 |
Home and away
FiorentinaFiorentina at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnNapoli20 Sep 20261–1
- WonPisaCoppa Italia15 Sep 20263–0
- LostTorino5 Sep 20261–2
- LostFrosinone29 Aug 20260–3
- WonBeneventoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20264–1
Fiorentina: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 6 scored, 8 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
ComoComo away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostFeyenoordUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20262–3
- LostFrosinone20 Sep 20260–2
- WonGenoa4 Sep 20264–1
- WonNapoli30 Aug 20262–1
- DrawnUdinese22 Aug 20261–1
Como: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Fiorentina- Last match
- 8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
- Next match
- 7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
Como- Last match
- 4 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Feyenoord · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · UEFA Champions League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Fiorentina
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 749 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1109 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 22 lost in 33 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 749 lost in 1109 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 56 won, 121 drawn, 330 lost in 507 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 369 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 514 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 54 matches | 610 won, 534 drawn, 610 lost in 1754 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches | 445 won, 424 drawn, 445 lost in 1314 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 18 conceded (75) | 696 scored, 696 conceded (2408) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 9 conceded (28) | 244 scored, 223 conceded (815) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 3 conceded (26) | 223 scored, 244 conceded (815) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,236 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Como
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Como | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 44 matches | 749 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1109 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 14 lost in 26 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 749 lost in 1109 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 330 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 507 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches | 369 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 514 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches | 237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 388 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 504 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 321 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 325 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 19 won, 19 drawn, 18 lost in 56 matches | 610 won, 534 drawn, 610 lost in 1754 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 45 matches | 445 won, 424 drawn, 445 lost in 1314 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Como | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 14 conceded (77) | 696 scored, 696 conceded (2408) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 18 scored, 4 conceded (32) | 244 scored, 223 conceded (815) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 3 conceded (26) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,236 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Fiorentina | Como | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 100.36 | xG for | 109.71 |
| 96 | Goals scored | 113 |
| 92.59 | xG against | 77.56 |
| 97 | Goals conceded | 73 |
Fiorentina
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Genoa | 0.82 | 1.46 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Napoli | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Venezia | 3.31 | 0.49 | 4–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 1.67 | 0.58 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Frosinone | 2.13 | 1.11 | 0–3 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.35 | 3.07 | 0–4 |
| 22 May 2026 | v Atalanta | 0.85 | 1.38 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Juventus | 0.47 | 1.98 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0–0 |
| 4 May 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.14 | 2.24 | 0–4 |
Como
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v AS Roma | 1.35 | 1.08 | 0–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Frosinone | 2.12 | 2.18 | 0–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Parma | 2.98 | 1.15 | 2–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Genoa | 1.78 | 0.78 | 4–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Napoli | 1.05 | 1.39 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Udinese | 1.50 | 2.14 | 1–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Cremonese | 2.47 | 1.06 | 4–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Parma | 2.77 | 0.43 | 1–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Hellas Verona | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Napoli | 1.79 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
Fiorentina: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Fiorentina | Como | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 9.17 | xPts | 9.50 |
| 9.42 | xG for | 10.78 |
| 8.11 | xG against | 8.72 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Fiorentina and Como
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- F. Parisi (Knee Injury) · R. Sottil (Back Injury)
- Doubtful
- A. Atta (Abdominal strain) · L. Ranieri (Leg Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Diao (Thigh Injury) · M. Kean (Leg Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since
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