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Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard
1–0Finished
Excelsior
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 11:15 GMTMatchday 10 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard hold a 43% win probability against Excelsior, though a draw at 25% is also plausible in this competitive contest. The hosts are hampered by three absences through injury, while the model expects 3.09 goals across the match.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 43%Fortuna Sittard win
  • 25%Draw
  • 32%Excelsior win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

ExcelsiorExcelsior

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Fortuna Sittard won 20 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Excelsior avoided defeat in 10 of 24 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Fortuna Sittard won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 3, draws 1, Excelsior 2

Goals: Fortuna Sittard 10, Excelsior 9

DateMatchScore
20 Feb 2026Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior2–1
19 Oct 2025Excelsior v Fortuna Sittard1–0
3 Mar 2024Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior5–2
26 Aug 2023Excelsior v Fortuna Sittard2–2
21 May 2023Excelsior v Fortuna Sittard3–0
17 Sep 2022Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior1–0

Home and away

Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnTwente10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostAjax12 Sep 20261–5
  • LostAZ Alkmaar22 Aug 20260–2
  • WonCambuur15 Aug 20263–1
  • WonPEC Zwolle10 May 20263–2

Fortuna Sittard: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Excelsior

Excelsior away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostHeerenveen16 Oct 20260–4
  • DrawnAjax19 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnNEC Nijmegen8 Sep 20262–2
  • WonWillem II5 Sep 20263–0
  • WonCambuur7 Aug 20264–0

Excelsior: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Fortuna Sittard
Last match
7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · KNVB Beker
Excelsior
Last match
9 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Heerenveen · Eredivisie
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v MVV · KNVB Beker

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Fortuna Sittard

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreFortuna SittardLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 33 matches648 won, 226 drawn, 120 lost in 994 matches
Conceded first3 won, 6 drawn, 25 lost in 34 matches120 won, 226 drawn, 648 lost in 994 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches230 won, 300 drawn, 230 lost in 760 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches167 won, 288 drawn, 167 lost in 622 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 43 matches485 won, 396 drawn, 485 lost in 1366 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 33 matches339 won, 318 drawn, 339 lost in 996 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFortuna SittardLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 29 conceded (68)758 scored, 758 conceded (2070)
When leading after 75 minutes2 scored, 12 conceded (21)334 scored, 242 conceded (772)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (30)242 scored, 334 conceded (772)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 17(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Excelsior

Since 9 Aug 2025

ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
Conceded first1 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 24 matches120 won, 226 drawn, 648 lost in 994 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 24 matches485 won, 396 drawn, 485 lost in 1366 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreExcelsiorLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 14 conceded (43)758 scored, 758 conceded (2070)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (21)242 scored, 334 conceded (772)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 15(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Fortuna SittardExcelsior
67Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG43Since 9 Aug 2025
79.01xG for57.87
91Goals scored59
118.31xG against75.98
119Goals conceded74

Fortuna Sittard

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fortuna Sittard: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at NEC Nijmegen0.453.062–2
10 Oct 2026v Twente0.951.151–1
19 Sep 2026at Willem II1.311.011–0
12 Sep 2026v Ajax0.714.131–5
6 Sep 2026at ADO Den Haag0.550.483–2
28 Aug 2026at Groningen0.881.603–2
22 Aug 2026v AZ Alkmaar0.444.350–2
15 Aug 2026v Cambuur1.912.513–1
8 Aug 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.012.312–2
17 May 2026at Utrecht0.482.090–2

Excelsior

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Excelsior: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
16 Oct 2026at Heerenveen0.722.800–4
11 Oct 2026v Groningen1.743.061–5
19 Sep 2026at Ajax0.822.512–2
13 Sep 2026v Utrecht0.611.421–2
8 Sep 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.811.362–2
5 Sep 2026at Willem II1.600.863–0
29 Aug 2026v Sparta Rotterdam1.321.032–1
15 Aug 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.512.241–2
7 Aug 2026at Cambuur3.350.704–0
17 May 2026at Sparta Rotterdam0.951.763–2

Fortuna Sittard: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Fortuna SittardExcelsior
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
15Points in those matches11
7.08xPts10.50
8.21xG for12.48
20.60xG against15.98

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
    Ruled out
    R. Bayram (Knee Injury) · I. Marquez (Injury) · Y. Oukili (Groin Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Dahlhaus (Inactive)
  • ExcelsiorExcelsiorNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 25 Oct 2026, 10:12 GMT · not changed since

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