Fortuna Sittard v Telstar match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard host Telstar with the model giving the home side a 45% chance to win. Fortuna have drawn their last two matches, while Telstar are without a win in their last four games. The expected total is around 3.04, with Fortuna holding a modest expected goals advantage of 0.32, though Telstar prevailed 4-1 in their most recent meeting in March.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 45%Fortuna Sittard win
- 25%Draw
- 30%Telstar win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
Fortuna SittardLast 5: 1 win, 4 draws, no defeats
- drew1–1at Feyenoord
- drew2–2at Sparta Rotterdam
- won1–0v Excelsior
- drew2–2at NEC Nijmegen
- drew1–1v Twente
TelstarLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- won4–2v Utrecht
- lost0–2v Almere City FC
- lost2–3at GO Ahead Eagles
- lost3–4v Feyenoord
- drew2–2v ADO Den Haag
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Fortuna Sittard won 19 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Telstar won 12 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 13 May 2025.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 1, draws 0, Telstar 1
Goals: Fortuna Sittard 4, Telstar 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Fortuna Sittard v Telstar | 1–4 |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Telstar v Fortuna Sittard | 1–3 |
Home and away
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonExcelsior25 Oct 20261–0
- DrawnTwente10 Oct 20261–1
- LostAjax12 Sep 20261–5
- LostAZ Alkmaar22 Aug 20260–2
- WonCambuur15 Aug 20263–1
Fortuna Sittard: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
TelstarTelstar away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostGO Ahead Eagles23 Oct 20262–3
- LostAZ Alkmaar20 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnHeerenveen13 Sep 20260–0
- LostTwente9 Sep 20260–1
- WonNEC Nijmegen8 Aug 20262–1
Telstar: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Fortuna Sittard- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Feyenoord · Eredivisie
- Next match
- Not known
Telstar- Last match
- 6 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Utrecht · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Fortuna Sittard
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Fortuna Sittard | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 32 matches | 658 won, 229 drawn, 121 lost in 1008 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 25 lost in 36 matches | 121 won, 229 drawn, 658 lost in 1008 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 26 matches | 234 won, 302 drawn, 234 lost in 770 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches | 171 won, 290 drawn, 171 lost in 632 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 18 lost in 44 matches | 492 won, 400 drawn, 492 lost in 1384 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches | 344 won, 320 drawn, 344 lost in 1008 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Fortuna Sittard | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 30 conceded (69) | 767 scored, 767 conceded (2098) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 13 conceded (21) | 338 scored, 243 conceded (781) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (31) | 243 scored, 338 conceded (781) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 19(league sides: 1,198 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Telstar
Since 13 May 2025
| Score | Telstar | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 12 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 658 won, 229 drawn, 121 lost in 1008 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 27 matches | 121 won, 229 drawn, 658 lost in 1008 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 234 won, 302 drawn, 234 lost in 770 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches | 171 won, 290 drawn, 171 lost in 632 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 7 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches | 492 won, 400 drawn, 492 lost in 1384 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 6 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches | 344 won, 320 drawn, 344 lost in 1008 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Telstar | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 16 scored, 22 conceded (52) | 767 scored, 767 conceded (2098) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 10 conceded (21) | 338 scored, 243 conceded (781) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (21) | 243 scored, 338 conceded (781) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 29 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 9(league sides: 1,198 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| 67Since 9 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 44Since 10 Aug 2025 |
| 79.13 | xG for | 64.04 |
| 89 | Goals scored | 62 |
| 120.68 | xG against | 82.99 |
| 120 | Goals conceded | 78 |
Fortuna Sittard
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Feyenoord | 0.96 | 2.95 | 1–1 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Excelsior | 0.74 | 0.39 | 1–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at NEC Nijmegen | 0.45 | 3.06 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Twente | 0.95 | 1.15 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Willem II | 1.31 | 1.01 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Ajax | 0.71 | 4.13 | 1–5 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at ADO Den Haag | 0.55 | 0.48 | 3–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Groningen | 0.88 | 1.60 | 3–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v AZ Alkmaar | 0.44 | 4.35 | 0–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Cambuur | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3–1 |
Telstar
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | v Utrecht | 2.49 | 1.31 | 4–2 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | at GO Ahead Eagles | 0.79 | 1.14 | 2–3 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Feyenoord | 1.43 | 3.83 | 3–4 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v ADO Den Haag | 2.44 | 1.11 | 2–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at AZ Alkmaar | 0.10 | 2.35 | 0–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Heerenveen | 0.71 | 1.54 | 0–0 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Twente | 0.52 | 2.65 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Cambuur | 2.12 | 0.98 | 2–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Ajax | 1.13 | 2.13 | 0–4 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | v Sparta Rotterdam | 1.40 | 2.54 | 1–3 |
Fortuna Sittard: 1 without xG left outTelstar: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 of 11 | Matches with xG | 11 of 11 |
| 19 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 9.11 | xPts | 11.67 |
| 9.91 | xG for | 14.79 |
| 23.94 | xG against | 21.73 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Fortuna Sittard and Telstar
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 14:27 GMT · not changed since
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