Frosinone v Lecce match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Thu 29 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Frosinone hold a 51% chance of winning this encounter according to the model, with Lecce at 22% and a draw at 27%. Expected goals suggest a close match with Frosinone slightly favoured, a gap of 0.6 in their favour. Lecce arrive severely weakened by injuries, losing four defenders and outfield players to suspensions and injury, while Frosinone are without midfielder Grillitsch.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 51%Frosinone win
- 27%Draw
- 22%Lecce win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
FrosinoneLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
LecceLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 218 of 276.
- Lecce won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- Lecce won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of Lecce's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Frosinone 0, draws 2, Lecce 2
Goals: Frosinone 2, Lecce 4
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2024 | Frosinone v Lecce | 1–1 |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Lecce v Frosinone | 2–1 |
| 2 Apr 2022 | Lecce v FrosinoneSerie B · Italy | 1–0 |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Frosinone v LecceSerie B · Italy | 0–0 |
Home and away
FrosinoneFrosinone at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSassuolo16 Oct 20264–2
- WonComo20 Sep 20262–0
- WonVenezia6 Sep 20263–2
- LostJuventus23 Aug 20260–1
- WonJuve StabiaCoppa Italia16 Aug 20264–1
Frosinone: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 25 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
LecceLecce away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- WonUdinese18 Oct 20263–0
- LostAC Milan20 Sep 20260–3
- LostCagliari7 Sep 20260–1
- WonVenezia23 Aug 20262–0
- LostPalermoCoppa Italia17 Aug 20260–2
Lecce: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Frosinone- Last match
- 4 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
Lecce- Last match
- 4 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 29 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lecce
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches | 767 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1132 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 4 drawn, 33 lost in 38 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 767 lost in 1132 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 33 matches | 325 won, 396 drawn, 325 lost in 1046 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 241 won, 408 drawn, 241 lost in 890 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches | 35 won, 112 drawn, 375 lost in 522 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 2 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 180 won, 450 drawn, 180 lost in 810 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches | 24 won, 96 drawn, 393 lost in 513 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 22 lost in 24 matches | 13 won, 85 drawn, 436 lost in 534 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 26 lost in 54 matches | 625 won, 540 drawn, 625 lost in 1790 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 39 matches | 454 won, 426 drawn, 454 lost in 1334 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 717 scored, 717 conceded (2456) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 1 scored, 6 conceded (20) | 233 scored, 233 conceded (784) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (36) | 233 scored, 251 conceded (836) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,267 times, within 15 minutes 188, by full time 564)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 29 Oct 2024
| Frosinone | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 75 |
| — | xG for | 68.63 |
| — | Goals scored | 61 |
| — | xG against | 114.88 |
| — | Goals conceded | 103 |
Lecce
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Juventus | 0.86 | 1.06 | 0–2 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Udinese | 3.47 | 0.54 | 3–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Bologna | 1.49 | 1.98 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at AC Milan | 0.21 | 2.19 | 0–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 1.08 | 2.79 | 3–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Cagliari | 0.50 | 1.61 | 0–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.80 | 3.27 | 0–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Venezia | 2.70 | 2.05 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.43 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Sassuolo | 0.86 | 2.02 | 3–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Frosinone | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 7.87 | xPts | 8.37 |
| 13.08 | xG for | 11.11 |
| 19.52 | xG against | 15.49 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Frosinone and Lecce
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- F. Grillitsch (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Berisha (Thigh Injury) · L. Coulibaly (Thigh Injury) · K. Gaspar (Red Card) · I. Ilic (Thigh Injury) · S. Pierotti (Ankle Injury)
Published 29 Oct 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since
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