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Serie A
Frosinone
4–2Finished
Sassuolo
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 7

Frosinone v Sassuolo match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 16 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model favours Frosinone at home with a 41% win probability, though Sassuolo remain competitive at 32%. Expected goals stand at 2.61 total. Sassuolo face a significant injury burden while Frosinone have struggled for consistency in recent weeks.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 41%Frosinone win
  • 28%Draw
  • 31%Sassuolo win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FrosinoneFrosinone

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

SassuoloSassuolo

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 214 of 269.
  • Sassuolo avoided defeat in 7 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 23 Aug 2025.
  • Sassuolo without a win in their last 5 away games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Sassuolo's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Frosinone 2, draws 1, Sassuolo 2

Goals: Frosinone 7, Sassuolo 6

DateMatchScore
2 Sep 2026Sassuolo v FrosinoneCoppa Italia1–1 PEN
13 May 2025Sassuolo v FrosinoneSerie B · Italy0–1
14 Dec 2024Frosinone v SassuoloSerie B · Italy1–2
9 Mar 2024Sassuolo v Frosinone1–0
17 Sep 2023Frosinone v Sassuolo4–2

Home and away

Frosinone

Frosinone at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonComo20 Sep 20262–0
  • WonVenezia6 Sep 20263–2
  • LostJuventus23 Aug 20260–1
  • WonJuve StabiaCoppa Italia16 Aug 20264–1
  • WonMantovaSerie B · Italy8 May 20265–0

Frosinone: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Sassuolo

Sassuolo away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostMonza18 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnBologna6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostAtalanta23 Aug 20261–2
  • LostParma24 May 20260–1
  • LostTorino8 May 20261–2

Sassuolo: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Frosinone
Last match
6 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
Next match
9 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
Sassuolo
Last match
5 days before11 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A
Next match
8 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Como · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 23 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sassuolo

ScoreSassuoloLeague sides
Conceded first3 won, 4 drawn, 18 lost in 25 matches123 won, 236 drawn, 746 lost in 1105 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches607 won, 534 drawn, 607 lost in 1748 matches
Level after 30 minutes8 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches443 won, 424 drawn, 443 lost in 1310 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSassuoloLeague sides
All matches10 scored, 15 conceded (44)695 scored, 695 conceded (2400)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 27 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 15(league sides: 1,230 times, within 15 minutes 181, by full time 548)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 23 Aug 2025

FrosinoneSassuolo
—Matches with xG44
—xG for52.31
—Goals scored56
—xG against63.53
—Goals conceded60

Sassuolo

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sassuolo: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v AC Milan1.191.181–1
18 Sep 2026at Monza1.471.511–2
13 Sep 2026v Juventus1.021.103–2
6 Sep 2026at Bologna1.621.882–2
29 Aug 2026v Torino1.851.262–1
23 Aug 2026at Atalanta2.700.881–2
24 May 2026at Parma0.911.120–1
17 May 2026v Lecce2.020.862–3
8 May 2026at Torino2.243.261–2
3 May 2026v AC Milan1.580.242–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

FrosinoneSassuolo
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
10Points in those matches8
5.59xPts9.42
8.54xG for9.85
13.60xG against7.81

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Frosinone and Sassuolo

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FrosinoneFrosinone
    Ruled out
    F. Grillitsch (Thigh Injury)
  • SassuoloSassuolo
    Ruled out
    D. Boloca (Muscle Injury) · J. Idzes (Muscle Injury) · I. Kone (Broken Leg) · F. Leysen (Knee Injury) · Y. Paz (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. Pieragnolo (Knee Injury)

Published 16 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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