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Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
3–4Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BST

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 29%FSV Mainz 05 win
  • 25%Draw
  • 46%Bayer Leverkusen win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • FSV Mainz 05 won 20 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 147 of 194.
  • Bayer Leverkusen won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • FSV Mainz 05 without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 2, draws 2, Bayer Leverkusen 6

Goals: FSV Mainz 05 13, Bayer Leverkusen 21

DateMatchScore
28 Feb 2026Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 051–1
18 Oct 2025FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen3–4
17 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen2–2
14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 051–0
23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 052–1
30 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen0–3
19 Feb 2023Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 052–3
27 Aug 2022FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen0–3
18 Feb 2022FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen3–2
25 Sep 2021Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 051–0

Home and away

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostEintracht Frankfurt12 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnSC Paderborn 0729 Aug 20260–0
  • LostUnion Berlin10 May 20261–3
  • LostBayern München25 Apr 20263–4
  • LostSC Freiburg12 Apr 20260–1

FSV Mainz 05: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnFC Augsburg12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostSV Elversberg29 Aug 20262–3
  • WonSV WehenDFB Pokal22 Aug 20264–0
  • LostVfB Stuttgart9 May 20261–3
  • Won1. FC Köln25 Apr 20262–1

Bayer Leverkusen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FSV Mainz 05
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FSV Mainz 05

ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
Scored first20 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 32 matches591 won, 194 drawn, 125 lost in 910 matches
Conceded first4 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 30 matches125 won, 194 drawn, 591 lost in 910 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches265 won, 91 drawn, 55 lost in 411 matches
Level after 15 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 14 lost in 40 matches479 won, 354 drawn, 479 lost in 1312 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches314 won, 308 drawn, 314 lost in 936 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
All matches19 scored, 28 conceded (66)691 scored, 691 conceded (1922)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 17 conceded (30)293 scored, 258 conceded (722)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 14(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen
66Matches with xG66
107.03xG for120.51
98Goals scored134
101.15xG against78.93
92Goals conceded83

FSV Mainz 05

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FSV Mainz 05: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.823.244–3
12 Sep 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.122.041–3
6 Sep 2026at Hamburger SV2.770.195–0
29 Aug 2026v SC Paderborn 071.230.730–0
16 May 2026at 1. FC Heidenheim3.712.532–0
10 May 2026v Union Berlin1.572.681–3
3 May 2026at FC St. Pauli2.540.842–1
25 Apr 2026v Bayern München2.692.213–4
19 Apr 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.320.621–1
12 Apr 2026v SC Freiburg0.550.560–1

Bayer Leverkusen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayer Leverkusen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v RB Leipzig2.270.972–0
12 Sep 2026at FC Augsburg2.641.112–2
5 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.110.394–0
29 Aug 2026at SV Elversberg1.881.272–3
16 May 2026v Hamburger SV3.271.791–1
9 May 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.543.041–3
2 May 2026v RB Leipzig4.421.174–1
25 Apr 2026at 1. FC Köln1.333.042–1
18 Apr 2026v FC Augsburg3.801.331–2
11 Apr 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.631.301–0

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05D. Kohr (Foot Injury) · Silas (Broken shinbone) · R. Zentner (Hand Injury) · P. Nebel (Muscle Injury) · O. Ruoppi (Knee Injury) · S. Widmer (Knee Injury)
  • Bayer LeverkusenBayer LeverkusenM. Culbreath (Foot Injury) · G. Doue (Calf Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:32 BST · not changed since

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