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Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
2–3Finished
Werder Bremen
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 7 · MEWA Arena, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Mainz are model favourites at 56% to win, with the model projecting 3.13 goals across the match. Both teams face injury concerns, though Bremen are affected more severely with six players ruled out.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 56%FSV Mainz 05 win
  • 23%Draw
  • 21%Werder Bremen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Werder BremenWerder Bremen

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • FSV Mainz 05 won 21 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
  • Werder Bremen won 17 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Werder Bremen won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • FSV Mainz 05 without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 2, draws 2, Werder Bremen 4

Goals: FSV Mainz 05 8, Werder Bremen 11

DateMatchScore
15 Mar 2026Werder Bremen v FSV Mainz 050–2
1 Nov 2025FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen1–1
31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen v FSV Mainz 051–0
15 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen1–2
3 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen0–1
2 Sep 2023Werder Bremen v FSV Mainz 054–0
8 Apr 2023FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen2–2
15 Oct 2022Werder Bremen v FSV Mainz 050–2

Home and away

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBayer Leverkusen10 Oct 20263–4
  • LostEintracht Frankfurt12 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnSC Paderborn 0729 Aug 20260–0
  • LostUnion Berlin10 May 20261–3
  • LostBayern München25 Apr 20263–4

FSV Mainz 05: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnBorussia Dortmund9 Oct 20262–2
  • Drawn1. FC Köln12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostSC Freiburg30 Aug 20261–4
  • WonLüneburger SK HansaDFB Pokal22 Aug 20263–0
  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim9 May 20260–1

Werder Bremen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FSV Mainz 05
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v VfL Bochum · DFB Pokal
Werder Bremen
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Borussia Dortmund · DFB Pokal

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FSV Mainz 05

Since 25 Oct 2024

ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
Scored first21 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches604 won, 196 drawn, 127 lost in 927 matches
Conceded first4 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 30 matches127 won, 196 drawn, 604 lost in 927 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches268 won, 92 drawn, 55 lost in 415 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 40 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches319 won, 310 drawn, 319 lost in 948 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
All matches20 scored, 28 conceded (67)707 scored, 707 conceded (1958)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 17 conceded (31)296 scored, 266 conceded (733)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,123 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 512)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Werder Bremen

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreWerder BremenLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches604 won, 196 drawn, 127 lost in 927 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches127 won, 196 drawn, 604 lost in 927 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches203 won, 288 drawn, 203 lost in 694 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches55 won, 92 drawn, 268 lost in 415 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 29 matches319 won, 310 drawn, 319 lost in 948 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches61 won, 82 drawn, 248 lost in 391 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWerder BremenLeague sides
All matches33 scored, 26 conceded (67)707 scored, 707 conceded (1958)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 16 conceded (34)266 scored, 296 conceded (733)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 17(league sides: 1,123 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 512)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
67Since 25 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 26 Oct 2024
111.09xG for92.09
102Goals scored91
101.64xG against103.25
94Goals conceded115

FSV Mainz 05

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FSV Mainz 05: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at FC Schalke 041.530.331–0
10 Oct 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.132.093–4
19 Sep 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.823.244–3
12 Sep 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.122.041–3
6 Sep 2026at Hamburger SV2.770.195–0
29 Aug 2026v SC Paderborn 071.230.730–0
16 May 2026at 1. FC Heidenheim3.712.532–0
10 May 2026v Union Berlin1.572.681–3
3 May 2026at FC St. Pauli2.540.842–1
25 Apr 2026v Bayern München2.692.213–4

Werder Bremen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Werder Bremen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v SC Paderborn 072.871.012–2
9 Oct 2026at Borussia Dortmund1.132.422–2
19 Sep 2026v FC Augsburg2.781.123–2
12 Sep 2026at 1. FC Köln1.121.651–1
5 Sep 2026v RB Leipzig0.951.503–1
30 Aug 2026at SC Freiburg0.542.371–4
16 May 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.492.740–2
9 May 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.071.520–1
2 May 2026v FC Augsburg1.352.571–3
26 Apr 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.931.821–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
10Points in those matches9
11.41xPts7.73
13.60xG for9.39
8.62xG against10.07

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
    Ruled out
    D. Kohr (Foot Injury) · Silas (Broken shinbone)
    Doubtful
    O. Ruoppi (Knee Injury) · R. Zentner (Hand Injury)
  • Werder BremenWerder Bremen
    Ruled out
    F. Agu (Calf Injury) · S. Alvero (Calf Injury) · S. Musah (Muscle Injury) · M. N'Diaye (Groin Injury) · J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury) · J. Stage (Muscle Injury) · N. Stark (Muscle Injury) · K. Topp (Knee Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:28 BST · not changed since

All fixtures