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Premier League
Fulham
1–0Finished
Hull City
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 7

Fulham v Hull City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Fulham are expected to dominate this match with a 58% chance of victory, though a draw is possible at 25%. The hosts are projected to create significantly more chances, but limited data means there are gaps in this assessment.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 58%Fulham win
  • 25%Draw
  • 17%Hull City win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FulhamFulham

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Hull CityHull City

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 265.
  • Hull City won 28 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Fulham won 3 of the last 3 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Hull City's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Fulham 3, draws 0, Hull City 0

Goals: Fulham 5, Hull City 0

DateMatchScore
7 Jan 2023Hull City v FulhamFA Cup0–2
12 Feb 2022Hull City v FulhamChampionship0–1
21 Aug 2021Fulham v Hull CityChampionship2–0

Home and away

Fulham

Fulham at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnManchester United20 Sep 20261–1
  • LostCrystal Palace5 Sep 20262–3
  • WonAFC WimbledonLeague Cup27 Aug 20263–0
  • LostChelsea24 Aug 20262–3
  • WonNewcastle24 May 20262–0

Fulham: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Hull City

Hull City away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostNewcastle19 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnChelsea12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostSunderlandLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–1
  • WonCoventry29 Aug 20261–0
  • DrawnStoke CityLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–1 PEN

Hull City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Fulham
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Ipswich · Premier League
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League
Hull City
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Everton · Premier League
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Brentford · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Hull City

ScoreHull CityLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 48 matches734 won, 239 drawn, 168 lost in 1141 matches
Conceded first6 won, 6 drawn, 27 lost in 39 matches168 won, 239 drawn, 734 lost in 1141 matches
1 goal up at half-time10 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches322 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 520 matches
Level at half-time16 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches299 won, 326 drawn, 299 lost in 924 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 14 drawn, 14 lost in 43 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 18 lost in 25 matches37 won, 113 drawn, 344 lost in 494 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches350 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 471 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 20 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 350 lost in 471 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 18 drawn, 26 lost in 70 matches610 won, 454 drawn, 610 lost in 1674 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes10 won, 7 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches312 won, 103 drawn, 78 lost in 493 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 55 matches424 won, 384 drawn, 424 lost in 1232 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHull CityLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 21 conceded (92)870 scored, 870 conceded (2400)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (28)312 scored, 326 conceded (876)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 7 conceded (32)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (32)326 scored, 312 conceded (876)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 21(league sides: 1,354 times, within 15 minutes 230, by full time 650)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

FulhamHull City
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG92Since 20 Oct 2024
96.24xG for108.91
97Goals scored113
103.42xG against130.84
107Goals conceded113

Fulham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fulham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Ipswich1.811.151–2
20 Sep 2026v Manchester United1.621.601–1
12 Sep 2026at Liverpool0.701.280–0
5 Sep 2026v Crystal Palace3.141.972–3
30 Aug 2026at Sunderland0.952.020–1
24 Aug 2026v Chelsea1.332.242–3
24 May 2026v Newcastle1.810.312–0
17 May 2026at Wolves1.591.401–1
9 May 2026v Bournemouth1.330.820–1
2 May 2026at Arsenal0.373.230–3

Hull City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Hull City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Everton1.331.682–2
19 Sep 2026at Newcastle1.591.441–2
12 Sep 2026at Chelsea1.380.912–2
5 Sep 2026v Aston Villa0.571.930–0
29 Aug 2026at Coventry0.721.291–0
22 Aug 2026v Manchester United1.011.832–0
23 May 2026v Middlesbrough0.710.781–0
11 May 2026at Millwall2.120.872–0
8 May 2026v Millwall0.460.610–0
2 May 2026v Norwich1.820.972–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

FulhamHull City
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
2Points in those matches9
7.70xPts6.60
9.55xG for6.60
10.26xG against9.08

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Fulham and Hull City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FulhamFulham
    Doubtful
    T. Cairney (Knee Injury) · H. Larsson (Groin Injury)
  • Hull CityHull City
    Ruled out
    I. Ansah (Back Injury) · J. Butland (Arm Injury) · M. Cho (Muscle Injury) · L. Gourna-Douath (Calf Injury) · D. Gyabi (Groin Injury) · C. Hughes (Groin Injury) · E. Matazo (Knee Injury) · N. Mendy (Groin Injury) · M. Targett (Ankle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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