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Süper Lig
Galatasaray
2–1Finished
Fenerbahçe
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 18:30 GMT

Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 26 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Galatasaray hold a 46% chance of victory in this derby, compared to 29% for Fenerbahçe and 25% for a draw. The model expects Galatasaray to lead the expected goals battle, with a 1.73–1.36 gap in their favour and a combined total of 3.09. Fenerbahçe are depleted by injuries, missing Asensio, Oosterwolde and Muldur, while several others are doubtful.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%Galatasaray win
  • 25%Draw
  • 29%Fenerbahçe win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

GalatasarayGalatasaray

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Galatasaray won 53 of 62 matches in which they scored first, since 28 Oct 2024.
  • Fenerbahçe won 46 of 57 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Galatasaray won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Galatasaray's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Galatasaray 4, draws 3, Fenerbahçe 3

Goals: Galatasaray 14, Fenerbahçe 7

DateMatchScore
26 Apr 2026Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe3–0
1 Dec 2025Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray1–1
24 Feb 2025Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe0–0
21 Sep 2024Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray1–3
19 May 2024Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe0–1
24 Dec 2023Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray0–0
4 Jun 2023Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe3–0
8 Jan 2023Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray0–3
10 Apr 2022Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray2–0
21 Nov 2021Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe1–2

Home and away

Galatasaray

Galatasaray at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBarcelonaUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20261–4
  • WonKasımpaşa9 Oct 20263–1
  • WonKocaelispor13 Sep 20261–0
  • WonGöztepe29 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnÇorum FK14 Aug 20262–2

Galatasaray: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
28 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostAston VillaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20260–6
  • WonRizespor10 Oct 20263–0
  • DrawnGaziantep FK14 Sep 20260–0
  • WonSamsunspor30 Aug 20262–0
  • WonLyonUEFA Champions League26 Aug 20262–1

Fenerbahçe: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Galatasaray
Last match
5 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Lille · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Konyaspor · Süper Lig
Fenerbahçe
Last match
6 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League
Next match
5 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Göztepe · Süper Lig

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Galatasaray

Since 28 Oct 2024

ScoreGalatasarayLeague sides
Scored first53 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 62 matches676 won, 198 drawn, 147 lost in 1021 matches
Conceded first6 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 27 matches147 won, 198 drawn, 676 lost in 1021 matches
1 goal up at half-time27 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches317 won, 109 drawn, 56 lost in 482 matches
Level at half-time14 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches274 won, 326 drawn, 274 lost in 874 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes29 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 33 matches345 won, 100 drawn, 44 lost in 489 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches297 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 305 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes26 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches339 won, 86 drawn, 27 lost in 452 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches332 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 336 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes27 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches360 won, 71 drawn, 11 lost in 442 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes21 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches199 won, 52 drawn, 38 lost in 289 matches
Level after 15 minutes35 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 54 matches554 won, 460 drawn, 554 lost in 1568 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes24 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches269 won, 99 drawn, 66 lost in 434 matches
Level after 30 minutes23 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches400 won, 356 drawn, 400 lost in 1156 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGalatasarayLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 16 conceded (91)748 scored, 748 conceded (2212)
When leading after 75 minutes27 scored, 12 conceded (58)295 scored, 260 conceded (770)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,177 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 524)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Fenerbahçe

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreFenerbahçeLeague sides
Scored first46 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 57 matches676 won, 198 drawn, 147 lost in 1021 matches
Conceded first13 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches147 won, 198 drawn, 676 lost in 1021 matches
1 goal up at half-time23 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches317 won, 109 drawn, 56 lost in 482 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches274 won, 326 drawn, 274 lost in 874 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches232 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 249 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches345 won, 100 drawn, 44 lost in 489 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 28 matches199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches297 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 305 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes23 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches339 won, 86 drawn, 27 lost in 452 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches159 won, 380 drawn, 159 lost in 698 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes34 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 34 matches332 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 336 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches360 won, 71 drawn, 11 lost in 442 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 20 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches120 won, 416 drawn, 120 lost in 656 matches
Level after 15 minutes37 won, 21 drawn, 11 lost in 69 matches554 won, 460 drawn, 554 lost in 1568 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes20 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches269 won, 99 drawn, 66 lost in 434 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 45 matches400 won, 356 drawn, 400 lost in 1156 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFenerbahçeLeague sides
All matches47 scored, 20 conceded (101)748 scored, 748 conceded (2212)
When leading after 75 minutes25 scored, 9 conceded (53)295 scored, 260 conceded (770)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 3 conceded (27)193 scored, 193 conceded (672)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (21)260 scored, 295 conceded (770)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 32(league sides: 1,177 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 524)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
69Since 28 Oct 2024Matches with xG70Since 27 Oct 2024
147.52xG for146.93
156Goals scored171
67.99xG against67.41
64Goals conceded75

Galatasaray

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Galatasaray: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Gençlerbirliği S.K.1.811.161–0
9 Oct 2026v Kasımpaşa2.520.493–1
19 Sep 2026at Trabzonspor0.962.200–4
13 Sep 2026v Kocaelispor2.260.821–0
4 Sep 2026at Başakşehir2.121.993–2
29 Aug 2026v Göztepe2.870.633–2
21 Aug 2026at Erzurumspor FK3.080.484–0
14 Aug 2026v Çorum FK2.900.612–2
17 May 2026at Kasımpaşa0.550.650–1
9 May 2026v Antalyaspor4.180.384–2

Fenerbahçe

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fenerbahçe: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Alanyaspor3.770.993–0
10 Oct 2026at Rizespor0.961.523–0
20 Sep 2026v Eyüpspor5.140.728–0
14 Sep 2026at Gaziantep FK1.340.490–0
5 Sep 2026v Beşiktaş0.591.751–2
30 Aug 2026at Samsunspor1.560.462–0
22 Aug 2026v Konyaspor2.362.154–2
15 Aug 2026at Gençlerbirliği S.K.2.901.191–2
17 May 2026v Eyüpspor1.330.523–3
9 May 2026at Konyaspor3.190.643–0

This league season

Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
19Points in those matches16
16.74xPts15.18
18.52xG for18.62
8.38xG against9.27

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • GalatasarayGalatasaray
    Doubtful
    R. Leao (Injury)
  • FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
    Ruled out
    M. Asensio (Knee Injury) · J. Oosterwolde (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Ake (Muscle Injury) · M. Muldur (Knee Injury)

Published 26 Oct 2026, 12:38 GMT · not changed since

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