Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 68%Galatasaray win
- 18%Draw
- 14%Kasımpaşa win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
GalatasarayLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
KasımpaşaLast 5: 1 win, 4 draws, no defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Galatasaray won 52 of 60 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Kasımpaşa won 15 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Galatasaray won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Galatasaray unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Galatasaray 5, draws 3, Kasımpaşa 2
Goals: Galatasaray 22, Kasımpaşa 18
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray | 1–0 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa | 3–0 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray | 3–3 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa | 3–3 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray | 3–4 |
| 3 Nov 2023 | Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa | 2–1 |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa | 1–0 |
| 11 Sep 2022 | Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray | 2–3 |
| 20 Jan 2022 | Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2021 | Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray | 2–2 |
Home and away
GalatasarayGalatasaray at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonKocaelispor13 Sep 20261–0
- WonGöztepe29 Aug 20263–2
- DrawnÇorum FK14 Aug 20262–2
- WonAntalyaspor9 May 20264–2
- WonFenerbahçe26 Apr 20263–0
Galatasaray: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 29 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
KasımpaşaKasımpaşa away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonGençlerbirliği S.K.13 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnBaşakşehir30 Aug 20261–1
- WonÇorum FK22 Aug 20261–0
- LostGençlerbirliği S.K.9 May 20262–3
- LostBaşakşehir24 Apr 20260–4
Kasımpaşa: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Galatasaray- Last match
- 20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Trabzonspor · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 4 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Barcelona · UEFA Champions League
Kasımpaşa- Last match
- 21 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Konyaspor · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 9 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Samsunspor · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Galatasaray
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Galatasaray | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 52 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 60 matches | 657 won, 197 drawn, 145 lost in 999 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 27 matches | 145 won, 197 drawn, 657 lost in 999 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 27 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches | 304 won, 108 drawn, 55 lost in 467 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches | 270 won, 322 drawn, 270 lost in 862 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 226 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 243 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 27 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches | 334 won, 100 drawn, 43 lost in 477 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 196 won, 332 drawn, 196 lost in 724 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 289 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 297 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 27 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 32 matches | 332 won, 85 drawn, 26 lost in 443 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 322 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 326 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 28 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 32 matches | 354 won, 70 drawn, 11 lost in 435 matches |
| 1 goal up after 15 minutes | 22 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches | 195 won, 52 drawn, 38 lost in 285 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 33 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 51 matches | 537 won, 454 drawn, 537 lost in 1528 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 26 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 30 matches | 259 won, 98 drawn, 65 lost in 422 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 390 won, 352 drawn, 390 lost in 1132 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Galatasaray | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 36 scored, 17 conceded (89) | 732 scored, 732 conceded (2164) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 29 scored, 13 conceded (59) | 288 scored, 258 conceded (754) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,155 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 517)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Kasımpaşa
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Kasımpaşa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 657 won, 197 drawn, 145 lost in 999 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 11 drawn, 21 lost in 37 matches | 145 won, 197 drawn, 657 lost in 999 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches | 270 won, 322 drawn, 270 lost in 862 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 21 matches | 55 won, 108 drawn, 304 lost in 467 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 3 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches | 196 won, 332 drawn, 196 lost in 724 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 2 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches | 154 won, 376 drawn, 154 lost in 684 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 18 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches | 115 won, 412 drawn, 115 lost in 642 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 19 drawn, 14 lost in 47 matches | 537 won, 454 drawn, 537 lost in 1528 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches | 390 won, 352 drawn, 390 lost in 1132 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 21 matches | 65 won, 98 drawn, 259 lost in 422 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Kasımpaşa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 32 conceded (68) | 732 scored, 732 conceded (2164) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (22) | 288 scored, 258 conceded (754) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 8 conceded (25) | 186 scored, 186 conceded (656) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 12 conceded (21) | 258 scored, 288 conceded (754) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 15, by full time 29(league sides: 1,155 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 517)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | |
|---|---|---|
| 68Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 68Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 145.39 | xG for | 82.13 |
| 155 | Goals scored | 93 |
| 66.67 | xG against | 97.31 |
| 63 | Goals conceded | 106 |
Galatasaray
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Trabzonspor | 0.96 | 2.20 | 0–4 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Kocaelispor | 2.26 | 0.82 | 1–0 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Başakşehir | 2.12 | 1.99 | 3–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Göztepe | 2.87 | 0.63 | 3–2 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | at Erzurumspor FK | 3.08 | 0.48 | 4–0 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | v Çorum FK | 2.90 | 0.61 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Kasımpaşa | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Antalyaspor | 4.18 | 0.38 | 4–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Samsunspor | 0.89 | 1.37 | 1–4 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | v Fenerbahçe | 2.71 | 1.25 | 3–0 |
Kasımpaşa
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Konyaspor | 0.59 | 1.22 | 0–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1.32 | 1.16 | 2–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Amed | 1.04 | 1.11 | 2–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Başakşehir | 1.69 | 0.76 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Çorum FK | 0.32 | 1.11 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Trabzonspor | 1.86 | 0.85 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Galatasaray | 0.65 | 0.55 | 1–0 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1.98 | 1.86 | 2–3 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Kocaelispor | 0.85 | 0.64 | 1–1 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | at Başakşehir | 0.24 | 2.22 | 0–4 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 12.35 | xPts | 8.36 |
| 14.19 | xG for | 6.82 |
| 6.73 | xG against | 6.21 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 9 Oct 2026, 17:02 BST · not changed since
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