Genoa v Fiorentina match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 37%Genoa win
- 28%Draw
- 35%Fiorentina win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
GenoaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
FiorentinaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Genoa won 16 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Fiorentina won 24 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Fiorentina won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Genoa 0, draws 3, Fiorentina 5
Goals: Genoa 6, Fiorentina 18
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Fiorentina v Genoa | 0–0 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 2–2 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina v Genoa | 2–1 |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 0–1 |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Fiorentina v Genoa | 1–1 |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 1–4 |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Fiorentina v Genoa | 6–0 |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 1–2 |
Home and away
GenoaGenoa at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonSudtirolCoppa Italia15 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnFrosinone12 Sep 20261–1
- LostComo4 Sep 20261–4
- LostNapoli22 Aug 20260–2
- WonAscoliCoppa Italia16 Aug 20264–1
Genoa: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
FiorentinaFiorentina away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonVenezia11 Sep 20264–2
- LostAS Roma24 Aug 20260–4
- WonJuventus17 May 20262–0
- LostAS Roma4 May 20260–4
- DrawnLecce20 Apr 20261–1
Fiorentina: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Genoa- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Parma · Serie A
- Next match
- 7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
Fiorentina- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
- Next match
- 8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Como · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Genoa
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 739 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1096 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 9 drawn, 25 lost in 37 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 739 lost in 1096 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches | 315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches | 235 won, 402 drawn, 235 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 109 won, 482 drawn, 109 lost in 700 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 11 won, 83 drawn, 426 lost in 520 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 18 drawn, 21 lost in 56 matches | 604 won, 528 drawn, 604 lost in 1736 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 41 matches | 442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 19 conceded (74) | 692 scored, 692 conceded (2380) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (774) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 5 conceded (29) | 222 scored, 241 conceded (803) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 19(league sides: 1,219 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Fiorentina
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 739 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1096 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 21 lost in 32 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 739 lost in 1096 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches | 315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 56 won, 120 drawn, 328 lost in 504 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 365 won, 110 drawn, 34 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 109 won, 482 drawn, 109 lost in 700 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 54 matches | 604 won, 528 drawn, 604 lost in 1736 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches | 442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 18 conceded (74) | 692 scored, 692 conceded (2380) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 9 conceded (28) | 241 scored, 222 conceded (803) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (774) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 3 conceded (25) | 222 scored, 241 conceded (803) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,219 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Genoa | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 73Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 80.46 | xG for | 99.54 |
| 76 | Goals scored | 95 |
| 88.90 | xG against | 91.13 |
| 95 | Goals conceded | 95 |
Genoa
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Frosinone | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Como | 0.78 | 1.78 | 1–4 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Lazio | 0.42 | 1.62 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Napoli | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Lecce | 0.68 | 1.43 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.32 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Fiorentina | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.52 | 1.96 | 0–0 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | v Como | 0.59 | 1.06 | 0–2 |
Fiorentina
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Napoli | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Venezia | 3.31 | 0.49 | 4–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 1.67 | 0.58 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Frosinone | 2.13 | 1.11 | 0–3 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.35 | 3.07 | 0–4 |
| 22 May 2026 | v Atalanta | 0.85 | 1.38 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Juventus | 0.47 | 1.98 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0–0 |
| 4 May 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.14 | 2.24 | 0–4 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.94 | 0.88 | 0–0 |
Fiorentina: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Genoa | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 1 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 5.26 | xPts | 8.27 |
| 4.45 | xG for | 8.60 |
| 6.63 | xG against | 6.65 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Genoa and Fiorentina
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since
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