Genoa v Juventus match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 28 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Juventus are heavy favourites with the model giving them a 52% chance of winning compared to Genoa's 21%. Genoa have won two of their last three matches and beat Juventus 1-0 in their most recent encounter last season, though Juventus won both games before that. Expected goals favour Juventus at 1.56 to 0.91, a gap of 0.65.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 21%Genoa win
- 27%Draw
- 52%Juventus win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
GenoaLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
JuventusLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Genoa won 18 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 31 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 40 of 54 matches in which they scored first, since 30 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Juventus's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Genoa 1, draws 2, Juventus 5
Goals: Genoa 3, Juventus 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Juventus v Genoa | 2–0 |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Genoa v Juventus | 0–1 |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Juventus v Genoa | 1–0 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Genoa v Juventus | 0–3 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Juventus v Genoa | 0–0 |
| 15 Dec 2023 | Genoa v Juventus | 1–1 |
| 6 May 2022 | Genoa v Juventus | 2–1 |
| 5 Dec 2021 | Juventus v Genoa | 2–0 |
Home and away
GenoaGenoa at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonVenezia25 Oct 20261–0
- WonFiorentina10 Oct 20262–1
- WonSudtirolCoppa Italia15 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnFrosinone12 Sep 20261–1
- LostComo4 Sep 20261–4
Genoa: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
JuventusJuventus away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonLecce25 Oct 20262–0
- WonCelta VigoUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
- DrawnCagliari11 Oct 20261–1
- LostSassuolo13 Sep 20262–3
- WonFrosinone23 Aug 20261–0
Juventus: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Genoa- Last match
- 3 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Venezia · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
Juventus- Last match
- 3 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Genoa
Since 31 Oct 2024
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 25 lost in 36 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 13 won, 85 drawn, 434 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 17 drawn, 21 lost in 56 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 41 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 17 conceded (75) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (28) | 233 scored, 250 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 18(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Juventus
Since 30 Oct 2024
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 54 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 13 drawn, 16 lost in 34 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 18 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 337 won, 123 drawn, 57 lost in 517 matches |
| Level at half-time | 16 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 37 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 23 matches | 57 won, 123 drawn, 337 lost in 517 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches | 374 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 19 drawn, 5 lost in 37 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 392 won, 96 drawn, 24 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 21 drawn, 3 lost in 33 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 434 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 22 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 28 drawn, 11 lost in 69 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 295 won, 111 drawn, 59 lost in 465 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 23 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 53 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 34 scored, 23 conceded (95) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 9 conceded (47) | 250 scored, 233 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (22) | 233 scored, 250 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 28(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Genoa | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 31 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 30 Oct 2024 |
| 82.13 | xG for | 119.22 |
| 77 | Goals scored | 115 |
| 90.06 | xG against | 66.47 |
| 93 | Goals conceded | 72 |
Genoa
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Venezia | 0.41 | 1.82 | 1–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.49 | 1.37 | 0–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.46 | 0.82 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Frosinone | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Como | 0.78 | 1.78 | 1–4 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Lazio | 0.42 | 1.62 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Napoli | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Lecce | 0.68 | 1.43 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.32 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
Juventus
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Lecce | 1.06 | 0.86 | 2–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Lazio | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Cagliari | 1.95 | 0.52 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Atalanta | 1.31 | 0.60 | 2–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.10 | 1.02 | 2–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.59 | 0.11 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Parma | 1.58 | 0.25 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Frosinone | 2.18 | 0.41 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Torino | 1.92 | 0.85 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.98 | 0.47 | 0–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Genoa | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 7 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 8.20 | xPts | 16.02 |
| 6.81 | xG for | 11.52 |
| 10.64 | xG against | 4.34 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Genoa and Juventus
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- E. Havel (Ankle Injury) · L. Venturino (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- K. Ehizibue (Muscle Injury) · D. Sow (Thigh Injury) · S. Wiafe (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- Z. Celik (Muscle Injury) · F. Conceicao (Shoulder Injury) · J. Ekhator (Muscle Injury) · N. Gonzalez (Calf Injury) · K. Grabara (Knee Injury) · M. Locatelli (Knee Injury) · A. Milik (Inactive) · K. Thuram (Knee Injury) · K. Yildiz (Foot Injury)
Published 28 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since
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