Gent v Anderlecht match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Gent are favoured by the model with a 41% chance of winning at home, while Anderlecht have a 31% chance. The teams have met five times recently with mixed results, and the expected goal total is 2.59.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Gent win
- 28%Draw
- 31%Anderlecht win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
GentLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
AnderlechtLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Gent won 23 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Anderlecht won 34 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Anderlecht won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
- Gent unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Gent 2, draws 2, Anderlecht 6
Goals: Gent 8, Anderlecht 21
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Gent v Anderlecht | 1–1 |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Anderlecht v Gent | 3–1 |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Gent v Anderlecht | 4–2 |
| 23 Sep 2025 | Anderlecht v Gent | 1–0 |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Gent v Anderlecht | 0–1 |
| 23 Apr 2025 | Anderlecht v Gent | 5–0 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Gent v Anderlecht | 1–0 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Anderlecht v Gent | 6–0 |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Anderlecht v Gent | 1–0 |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Gent v Anderlecht | 1–1 |
Home and away
GentGent at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonAarhusUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20261–0
- WonStandard Liege18 Sep 20262–1
- WonOH Leuven3 Sep 20261–0
- WonClub Brugge KV30 Aug 20262–1
- DrawnHibernianUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20260–0
Gent: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 6 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
AnderlechtAnderlecht away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonJagielloniaUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20263–0
- LostDinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20260–1
- WonCercle Brugge10 Oct 20262–1
- WonKV Mechelen11 Sep 20261–0
- LostUnion St. Gilloise30 Aug 20260–3
Anderlecht: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Gent- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v SC Braga · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League
Anderlecht- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Jagiellonia · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v KVC Westerlo · Jupiler Pro League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Gent
| Score | Gent | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 637 won, 195 drawn, 121 lost in 953 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 36 matches | 121 won, 195 drawn, 637 lost in 953 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches | 241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 117 won, 336 drawn, 117 lost in 570 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches | 105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 55 matches | 524 won, 410 drawn, 524 lost in 1458 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches | 377 won, 342 drawn, 377 lost in 1096 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Gent | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 30 scored, 25 conceded (78) | 681 scored, 681 conceded (2054) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (25) | 264 scored, 242 conceded (739) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 175 scored, 175 conceded (576) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 12 conceded (28) | 242 scored, 264 conceded (739) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 18(league sides: 1,087 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 479)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Anderlecht
| Score | Anderlecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 44 matches | 637 won, 195 drawn, 121 lost in 953 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 4 drawn, 32 lost in 44 matches | 121 won, 195 drawn, 637 lost in 953 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 1 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 43 won, 99 drawn, 303 lost in 445 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 323 won, 105 drawn, 30 lost in 458 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 5 won, 2 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 30 won, 105 drawn, 323 lost in 458 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches | 334 won, 94 drawn, 21 lost in 449 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 117 won, 336 drawn, 117 lost in 570 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 323 won, 81 drawn, 9 lost in 413 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 60 matches | 524 won, 410 drawn, 524 lost in 1458 matches |
| 1 goal down after 15 minutes | 4 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 38 won, 60 drawn, 175 lost in 273 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 253 won, 90 drawn, 49 lost in 392 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 44 matches | 377 won, 342 drawn, 377 lost in 1096 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 1 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches | 49 won, 90 drawn, 253 lost in 392 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Anderlecht | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 40 scored, 29 conceded (94) | 681 scored, 681 conceded (2054) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 18 scored, 14 conceded (42) | 264 scored, 242 conceded (739) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 9 conceded (33) | 242 scored, 264 conceded (739) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,087 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 479)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Gent | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Matches with xG | 77 |
| 105.20 | xG for | 112.62 |
| 95 | Goals scored | 116 |
| 118.87 | xG against | 109.83 |
| 116 | Goals conceded | 98 |
Gent
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Zulte Waregem | 2.50 | 0.68 | 2–0 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Standard Liege | 1.30 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Genk | 0.89 | 0.94 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Cercle Brugge | 1.22 | 0.49 | 3–0 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v OH Leuven | 0.98 | 0.52 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Club Brugge KV | 1.38 | 0.65 | 2–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at RAAL La Louvière | 1.18 | 0.54 | 2–1 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v KV Mechelen | 1.16 | 0.34 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Club Brugge KV | 1.85 | 2.81 | 0–5 |
| 21 May 2026 | v Union St. Gilloise | 1.46 | 1.17 | 0–0 |
Anderlecht
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Cercle Brugge | 1.06 | 1.02 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Zulte Waregem | 2.59 | 0.99 | 3–0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at KV Mechelen | 0.91 | 1.23 | 1–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Genk | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0–0 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Kortrijk | 1.50 | 0.46 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Union St. Gilloise | 1.34 | 1.60 | 0–3 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at SK Beveren | 1.27 | 0.64 | 0–1 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v RAAL La Louvière | 3.05 | 0.74 | 2–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Union St. Gilloise | 0.87 | 2.40 | 1–5 |
| 21 May 2026 | v St. Truiden | 2.01 | 1.50 | 3–1 |
Gent: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Gent | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 22 | Points in those matches | 16 |
| 14.74 | xPts | 14.19 |
| 10.61 | xG for | 12.42 |
| 5.27 | xG against | 7.08 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Gent and Anderlecht
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 25 Oct 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since
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