Groningen v Ajax match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Ajax are given a 42% chance to win this match by the model, compared to Groningen's 33%, with a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goal total is 3.1, and Ajax hold a 0.24 gap in expected goals. Both teams have notable injury concerns heading into this fixture.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 33%Groningen win
- 25%Draw
- 42%Ajax win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
GroningenLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
AjaxLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Groningen won 25 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Ajax won 36 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Ajax won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Groningen's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Groningen 1, draws 1, Ajax 7
Goals: Groningen 10, Ajax 25
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | Ajax v Groningen | 2–0 |
| 7 Mar 2026 | Groningen v Ajax | 3–1 |
| 2 Dec 2025 | Ajax v Groningen | 2–0 |
| 14 May 2025 | Groningen v Ajax | 2–2 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Ajax v Groningen | 3–1 |
| 16 May 2023 | Groningen v Ajax | 2–3 |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Ajax v Groningen | 6–1 |
| 2 Apr 2022 | Groningen v Ajax | 1–3 |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Ajax v Groningen | 3–0 |
Home and away
GroningenGroningen at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonPEC Zwolle18 Sep 20263–0
- DrawnTwente6 Sep 20262–2
- LostFortuna Sittard28 Aug 20262–3
- WonUtrecht9 Aug 20262–1
- WonNEC Nijmegen10 May 20262–1
Groningen: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
AjaxAjax away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- LostHNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20261–2
- WonFortuna Sittard12 Sep 20265–1
- WonTelstar30 Aug 20264–0
- WonFC SionUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20264–2
- DrawnShelbourneUEFA Europa Conference League13 Aug 20262–2
Ajax: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 6 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Groningen- Last match
- 7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Excelsior · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Ajax- Last match
- 3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · UEFA Europa Conference League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Groningen
| Score | Groningen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 644 won, 223 drawn, 119 lost in 986 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches | 119 won, 223 drawn, 644 lost in 986 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches | 482 won, 392 drawn, 482 lost in 1356 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Groningen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 21 conceded (69) | 751 scored, 751 conceded (2054) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (27) | 333 scored, 236 conceded (764) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (26) | 236 scored, 333 conceded (764) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,173 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 540)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Ajax
| Score | Ajax | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 36 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 48 matches | 644 won, 223 drawn, 119 lost in 986 matches |
| Conceded first | 9 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 39 matches | 119 won, 223 drawn, 644 lost in 986 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 17 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 296 won, 102 drawn, 52 lost in 450 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 282 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 304 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 287 won, 100 drawn, 27 lost in 414 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 350 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 361 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 274 won, 93 drawn, 18 lost in 385 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 379 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 382 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 305 won, 91 drawn, 4 lost in 400 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 75 won, 340 drawn, 75 lost in 490 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 61 matches | 482 won, 392 drawn, 482 lost in 1356 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 261 won, 98 drawn, 61 lost in 420 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches | 339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Ajax | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 36 scored, 29 conceded (90) | 751 scored, 751 conceded (2054) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 17 scored, 11 conceded (44) | 333 scored, 236 conceded (764) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 9 conceded (25) | 182 scored, 182 conceded (526) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (21) | 236 scored, 333 conceded (764) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 29(league sides: 1,173 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 540)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Groningen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 69 | Matches with xG | 70 |
| 103.27 | xG for | 127.92 |
| 98 | Goals scored | 139 |
| 98.06 | xG against | 83.15 |
| 103 | Goals conceded | 77 |
Groningen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Excelsior | 3.06 | 1.74 | 5–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v PEC Zwolle | 1.39 | 0.43 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at GO Ahead Eagles | 0.16 | 2.23 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Twente | 1.48 | 2.30 | 2–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Fortuna Sittard | 1.60 | 0.88 | 2–3 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at PSV Eindhoven | 1.09 | 4.40 | 1–5 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at ADO Den Haag | 3.20 | 1.01 | 4–1 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Utrecht | 1.55 | 2.27 | 2–1 |
| 21 May 2026 | at Ajax | 0.16 | 1.83 | 0–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Heracles | 1.17 | 0.64 | 2–1 |
Ajax
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v NEC Nijmegen | 1.78 | 1.05 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Excelsior | 2.51 | 0.82 | 2–2 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Willem II | 3.79 | 1.58 | 5–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Fortuna Sittard | 4.13 | 0.71 | 5–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v PSV Eindhoven | 1.99 | 2.55 | 1–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Telstar | 2.13 | 1.13 | 4–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Heerenveen | 2.00 | 1.36 | 2–2 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at PEC Zwolle | 1.54 | 0.59 | 2–0 |
| 21 May 2026 | v Groningen | 1.83 | 0.16 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Heerenveen | 1.86 | 1.61 | 0–0 |
Ajax: 2 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Groningen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 15 |
| 10.87 | xPts | 16.47 |
| 13.53 | xG for | 19.87 |
| 15.26 | xG against | 9.79 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Groningen and Ajax
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- T. Hernes (Injury) · M. Jeng (Leg Injury) · T. Mercera (Injury) · E. van der Laan (Injury)
- Ruled out
- S. Berghuis (Injury) · D. Blind (Back Injury) · Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) · K. Dolberg (Knee Injury) · A. Gaaei (Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 14:42 BST · not changed since
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