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Eredivisie
Groningen
2–3Finished
Sparta Rotterdam
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:45 GMTMatchday 11 · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen

Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Groningen have the better recent form with two straight wins, but Sparta Rotterdam have won four of their last five meetings, including a 5-2 victory at home in October. Expected goals total 3.2 with a 0.6-goal gap in Groningen's favour. Groningen will be without midfielders M. Jeng and T. Mercera, and have E. van der Laan as doubtful; Sparta are missing S. Mito.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Groningen win
  • 24%Draw
  • 25%Sparta Rotterdam win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

GroningenGroningen

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–2v Emmen
  2. drew2–2at NEC Nijmegen
  3. lost2–5v Ajax
  4. won5–1at Excelsior
  5. won3–0v PEC Zwolle
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew2–2v Fortuna Sittard
  2. lost1–2v Ajax
  3. won3–2v Willem II
  4. drew3–3at GO Ahead Eagles
  5. lost0–4v Heerenveen

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Groningen won 25 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Sparta Rotterdam won 20 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Sparta Rotterdam won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Groningen's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Groningen 1, draws 1, Sparta Rotterdam 7

Goals: Groningen 6, Sparta Rotterdam 20

DateMatchScore
31 Jan 2026Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen2–0
30 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam v GroningenKNVB Beker5–2
19 Oct 2025Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam0–2
2 Feb 2025Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen1–0
9 Nov 2024Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam1–0
28 May 2023Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam0–5
17 Sep 2022Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen2–1
7 May 2022Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam1–2
17 Oct 2021Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen1–1

Home and away

Groningen

Groningen at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostEmmenKNVB Beker29 Oct 20260–2
  • LostAjax18 Oct 20262–5
  • WonPEC Zwolle18 Sep 20263–0
  • DrawnTwente6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostFortuna Sittard28 Aug 20262–3

Groningen: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnGO Ahead Eagles10 Oct 20263–3
  • LostPSV Eindhoven13 Sep 20261–4
  • LostExcelsior29 Aug 20261–2
  • WonTelstar14 Aug 20263–1
  • LostTwente10 May 20260–4

Sparta Rotterdam: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 27 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Groningen
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Emmen · KNVB Beker
Next match
7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam
Last match
4 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Fortuna Sittard · KNVB Beker
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Groningen

ScoreGroningenLeague sides
Scored first25 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 36 matches656 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1005 matches
Conceded first1 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 656 lost in 1005 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 42 matches491 won, 400 drawn, 491 lost in 1382 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches343 won, 320 drawn, 343 lost in 1006 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGroningenLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 20 conceded (70)765 scored, 765 conceded (2092)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (27)337 scored, 243 conceded (779)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (27)243 scored, 337 conceded (779)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,194 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Sparta Rotterdam

ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches656 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1005 matches
Conceded first1 won, 6 drawn, 28 lost in 35 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 656 lost in 1005 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 14 drawn, 23 lost in 52 matches491 won, 400 drawn, 491 lost in 1382 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 41 matches343 won, 320 drawn, 343 lost in 1006 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSparta RotterdamLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 35 conceded (69)765 scored, 765 conceded (2092)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (22)337 scored, 243 conceded (779)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 18 conceded (30)243 scored, 337 conceded (779)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 16(league sides: 1,194 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 3 Nov 2024

GroningenSparta Rotterdam
69Matches with xG68
105.89xG for94.87
102Goals scored85
101.67xG against107.65
108Goals conceded116

Groningen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Groningen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.451.802–2
18 Oct 2026v Ajax2.293.042–5
11 Oct 2026at Excelsior3.061.745–1
18 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle1.390.433–0
12 Sep 2026at GO Ahead Eagles0.162.231–1
6 Sep 2026v Twente1.482.302–2
28 Aug 2026v Fortuna Sittard1.600.882–3
23 Aug 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.094.401–5
16 Aug 2026at ADO Den Haag3.201.014–1
9 Aug 2026v Utrecht1.552.272–1

Sparta Rotterdam

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sparta Rotterdam: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Ajax0.851.371–2
17 Oct 2026v Willem II3.651.633–2
10 Oct 2026at GO Ahead Eagles2.361.293–3
19 Sep 2026v Heerenveen0.671.800–4
13 Sep 2026at PSV Eindhoven2.293.751–4
4 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle2.231.072–2
29 Aug 2026at Excelsior1.031.321–2
22 Aug 2026v Utrecht1.731.923–3
14 Aug 2026at Telstar2.541.403–1
9 Aug 2026v Feyenoord1.013.530–1

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

GroningenSparta Rotterdam
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
15Points in those matches9
13.08xPts13.63
17.27xG for18.36
20.10xG against19.08

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • GroningenGroningen
    Ruled out
    M. Jeng (Leg Injury) · T. Mercera (Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. van der Laan (Injury)
  • Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
    Ruled out
    S. Mito (Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 14:42 GMT · not changed since

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