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Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
1–0Finished
VfB Stuttgart
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 6

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Stuttgart are the model's favoured outcome at 48%, with Hamburg at 28% and draws rated at 24%. Stuttgart show a head-to-head advantage and are expected to generate more chances, though the match is projected to stay low-scoring at 3.2 goals total.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 28%Hamburger SV win
  • 24%Draw
  • 48%VfB Stuttgart win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Hamburger SVHamburger SV

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Hamburger SV avoided defeat in 7 of 21 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Hamburger SV's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Hamburger SV 1, draws 0, VfB Stuttgart 3

Goals: Hamburger SV 3, VfB Stuttgart 11

DateMatchScore
12 Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV4–0
30 Nov 2025Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart2–1
5 Jun 2023Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart1–3
1 Jun 2023VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV3–0

Home and away

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • Won1. FC Köln19 Sep 20262–1
  • LostFSV Mainz 056 Sep 20260–5
  • WonSC Freiburg10 May 20263–2
  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim25 Apr 20261–2
  • DrawnFC Augsburg4 Apr 20261–1

Hamburger SV: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20263–0
  • WonSC Paderborn 0710 Oct 20262–0
  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostBayern München28 Aug 20261–5
  • WonHansa RostockDFB Pokal21 Aug 20264–0

VfB Stuttgart: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 25 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Hamburger SV
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 24 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Hamburger SV

ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
Conceded first4 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches125 won, 195 drawn, 599 lost in 919 matches
Level after 15 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 32 matches483 won, 354 drawn, 483 lost in 1320 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches317 won, 308 drawn, 317 lost in 942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
All matches8 scored, 17 conceded (39)700 scored, 700 conceded (1940)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 26 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 12(league sides: 1,114 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 508)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
39Since 24 Aug 2025Matches with xG67Since 19 Oct 2024
46.55xG for120.05
45Goals scored128
70.47xG against102.60
69Goals conceded100

Hamburger SV

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Hamburger SV: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.280.933–2
19 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln1.451.412–1
13 Sep 2026at RB Leipzig1.102.430–5
6 Sep 2026v FSV Mainz 050.192.770–5
29 Aug 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.911.530–2
16 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.793.271–1
10 May 2026v SC Freiburg1.980.413–2
2 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt0.620.652–1
25 Apr 2026v 1899 Hoffenheim1.371.451–2
18 Apr 2026at Werder Bremen0.571.741–3

VfB Stuttgart

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
VfB Stuttgart: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at SC Paderborn 072.471.962–0
19 Sep 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.871.340–1
12 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.162.761–2
4 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln3.472.864–1
28 Aug 2026at Bayern München0.794.061–5
16 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.322.562–2
9 May 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.040.543–1
2 May 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.572.473–3
26 Apr 2026v Werder Bremen1.820.931–1
19 Apr 2026at Bayern München1.354.612–4

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
6Points in those matches6
4.72xPts5.65
4.93xG for9.76
9.07xG against12.98

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Hamburger SVHamburger SV
    Ruled out
    P. Daka (Thigh Injury) · N. Remberg (Knee Injury) · M. Vuskovic (Doping)
    Doubtful
    B. Jatta (Groin Injury) · A. S. Lokonga (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
    Ruled out
    A. Al Dakhil (Knee Injury) · J. Diehl (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Mittelstadt (Heel Injury) · N. Nartey (Muscle Injury) · T. Tomas (Muscle Injury) · D. Zagadou (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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