Heerenveen v Excelsior match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 16 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Heerenveen are modelled as 48% favourites at home over Excelsior (27%), with a 25% draw probability. The model expects 3.05 goals, with Heerenveen creating a 0.43 gap in expected goals. Both teams show mixed recent form.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 48%Heerenveen win
- 25%Draw
- 27%Excelsior win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
HeerenveenLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
ExcelsiorLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Heerenveen won 23 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Excelsior won 19 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Mar 2025.
- Heerenveen won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
- Excelsior unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Heerenveen 3, draws 1, Excelsior 2
Goals: Heerenveen 5, Excelsior 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Excelsior v Heerenveen | 1–2 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 2–1 |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Excelsior v Heerenveen | 3–0 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 0–3 |
| 13 May 2023 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 0–0 |
| 5 Nov 2022 | Excelsior v Heerenveen | 0–1 |
Home and away
HeerenveenHeerenveen at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnTelstar13 Sep 20260–0
- LostAZ Alkmaar6 Sep 20262–3
- LostPEC Zwolle22 Aug 20260–2
- WonTwente9 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnAjax17 May 20260–0
Heerenveen: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
ExcelsiorExcelsior away
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnAjax19 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnNEC Nijmegen8 Sep 20262–2
- WonWillem II5 Sep 20263–0
- WonCambuur7 Aug 20264–0
- WonSparta Rotterdam17 May 20263–2
Excelsior: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 22 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Heerenveen- Last match
- 7 days before9 Oct 2026 · v PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 8 days after24 Oct 2026 · v ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie
Excelsior- Last match
- 5 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Groningen · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 9 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Heerenveen
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Heerenveen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches | 642 won, 223 drawn, 116 lost in 981 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 10 drawn, 26 lost in 42 matches | 116 won, 223 drawn, 642 lost in 981 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 294 won, 102 drawn, 50 lost in 446 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 24 matches | 229 won, 296 drawn, 229 lost in 754 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 120 won, 320 drawn, 120 lost in 560 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 303 won, 91 drawn, 4 lost in 398 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 20 won, 12 drawn, 20 lost in 52 matches | 479 won, 392 drawn, 479 lost in 1350 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches | 339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 3 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches | 58 won, 98 drawn, 259 lost in 415 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Heerenveen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 24 conceded (74) | 747 scored, 747 conceded (2044) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (29) | 330 scored, 236 conceded (760) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (29) | 236 scored, 330 conceded (760) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 23(league sides: 1,166 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 537)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Excelsior
Since 2 Mar 2025
| Score | Excelsior | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches | 642 won, 223 drawn, 116 lost in 981 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 25 matches | 116 won, 223 drawn, 642 lost in 981 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 229 won, 296 drawn, 229 lost in 754 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches | 165 won, 286 drawn, 165 lost in 616 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 12 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 32 matches | 479 won, 392 drawn, 479 lost in 1350 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 6 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 23 matches | 339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Excelsior | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 15 conceded (54) | 747 scored, 747 conceded (2044) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 4 conceded (21) | 236 scored, 330 conceded (760) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 17(league sides: 1,166 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 537)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 70Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 42Since 9 Aug 2025 |
| 101.85 | xG for | 57.15 |
| 103 | Goals scored | 59 |
| 100.24 | xG against | 73.18 |
| 111 | Goals conceded | 70 |
Heerenveen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | at PSV Eindhoven | 1.57 | 2.38 | 0–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 1.80 | 0.67 | 4–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Telstar | 1.54 | 0.71 | 0–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v AZ Alkmaar | 1.48 | 1.04 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Willem II | 1.35 | 1.70 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v PEC Zwolle | 0.85 | 1.55 | 0–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Ajax | 1.36 | 2.00 | 2–2 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Twente | 0.39 | 1.78 | 1–0 |
| 21 May 2026 | at Utrecht | 1.26 | 2.08 | 2–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Ajax | 1.61 | 1.86 | 0–0 |
Excelsior
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Groningen | 1.74 | 3.06 | 1–5 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Ajax | 0.82 | 2.51 | 2–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Utrecht | 0.61 | 1.42 | 1–2 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at NEC Nijmegen | 1.81 | 1.36 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Willem II | 1.60 | 0.86 | 3–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Sparta Rotterdam | 1.32 | 1.03 | 2–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v PSV Eindhoven | 0.51 | 2.24 | 1–2 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | at Cambuur | 3.35 | 0.70 | 4–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 0.95 | 1.76 | 3–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | v FC Volendam | 0.38 | 0.46 | 1–1 |
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 10.21 | xPts | 10.16 |
| 10.34 | xG for | 11.76 |
| 11.83 | xG against | 13.18 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Heerenveen and Excelsior
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- D. Proper (Hamstring Injury)
- Doubtful
- N. Naujoks (Injury)
Published 16 Oct 2026, 17:57 BST · not changed since
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