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Eredivisie
Heerenveen
1–0Finished
NEC Nijmegen
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:45 GMTMatchday 11 · Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Heerenveen have won four of their last five matches and took both recent head-to-head encounters 3-2 and 1-0 against NEC. The model gives Heerenveen a 45% chance of victory, with a 24% draw and 31% for NEC, expecting 3.26 goals total. NEC face significant injuries including three ruled out and two doubtful attackers and defenders.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 45%Heerenveen win
  • 24%Draw
  • 31%NEC Nijmegen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

HeerenveenHeerenveen

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0at Excelsior Maassluis
  2. won3–2at ADO Den Haag
  3. won4–0v Excelsior
  4. lost0–2at PSV Eindhoven
  5. won4–0at Sparta Rotterdam
NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen

Last 5: 1 win, 4 draws, no defeats

  1. drew2–2v Groningen
  2. won4–2at Dinamo Zagreb
  3. drew2–2v Fortuna Sittard
  4. drew1–1v Levski Sofia
  5. drew1–1at Ajax

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Heerenveen won 22 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • NEC Nijmegen won 24 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Heerenveen 3, draws 4, NEC Nijmegen 3

Goals: Heerenveen 11, NEC Nijmegen 14

DateMatchScore
22 Mar 2026NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen2–2
21 Sep 2025Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen3–2
27 Apr 2025Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen1–0
19 Oct 2024NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen3–0
10 Mar 2024NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen2–0
7 Oct 2023Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen1–1
6 May 2023NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen2–3
4 Sep 2022Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen0–0
13 Feb 2022Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen0–1
6 Nov 2021NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen1–1

Home and away

Heerenveen

Heerenveen at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonExcelsior16 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnTelstar13 Sep 20260–0
  • LostAZ Alkmaar6 Sep 20262–3
  • LostPEC Zwolle22 Aug 20260–2
  • WonTwente9 Aug 20261–0

Heerenveen: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonDinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–2
  • DrawnAjax10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostJuventusUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20260–5
  • LostCambuur12 Sep 20260–3
  • WonPEC Zwolle29 Aug 20263–1

NEC Nijmegen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Heerenveen
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Excelsior Maassluis · KNVB Beker
Next match
8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Feyenoord · Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Groningen · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Heerenveen

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreHeerenveenLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches651 won, 228 drawn, 120 lost in 999 matches
Conceded first6 won, 10 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches120 won, 228 drawn, 651 lost in 999 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches232 won, 300 drawn, 232 lost in 764 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches169 won, 290 drawn, 169 lost in 628 matches
Level after 15 minutes19 won, 12 drawn, 19 lost in 50 matches488 won, 398 drawn, 488 lost in 1374 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches341 won, 318 drawn, 341 lost in 1000 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHeerenveenLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 23 conceded (71)761 scored, 761 conceded (2080)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 7 conceded (29)334 scored, 242 conceded (773)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (27)242 scored, 334 conceded (773)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 23(league sides: 1,188 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

NEC Nijmegen

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches651 won, 228 drawn, 120 lost in 999 matches
Conceded first4 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 41 matches120 won, 228 drawn, 651 lost in 999 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches232 won, 300 drawn, 232 lost in 764 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches53 won, 104 drawn, 298 lost in 455 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches169 won, 290 drawn, 169 lost in 628 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches77 won, 344 drawn, 77 lost in 498 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 15 lost in 51 matches488 won, 398 drawn, 488 lost in 1374 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches341 won, 318 drawn, 341 lost in 1000 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
All matches36 scored, 15 conceded (76)761 scored, 761 conceded (2080)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (25)334 scored, 242 conceded (773)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 3 conceded (22)185 scored, 185 conceded (534)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 6 conceded (29)242 scored, 334 conceded (773)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 57 times, equalised within 15 minutes 16, by full time 36(league sides: 1,188 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
70Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG68Since 3 Nov 2024
105.89xG for116.10
108Goals scored135
102.05xG against97.61
110Goals conceded107

Heerenveen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Heerenveen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at ADO Den Haag2.502.903–2
16 Oct 2026v Excelsior2.800.724–0
9 Oct 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.572.380–2
19 Sep 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.800.674–0
13 Sep 2026v Telstar1.540.710–0
6 Sep 2026v AZ Alkmaar1.481.042–3
30 Aug 2026at Willem II1.351.702–2
22 Aug 2026v PEC Zwolle0.851.550–2
16 Aug 2026at Ajax1.362.002–2
9 Aug 2026v Twente0.391.781–0

NEC Nijmegen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
NEC Nijmegen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Groningen1.801.452–2
18 Oct 2026v Fortuna Sittard3.060.452–2
10 Oct 2026at Ajax1.051.781–1
20 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles1.042.311–1
12 Sep 2026at Cambuur0.933.120–3
8 Sep 2026v Excelsior1.361.812–2
5 Sep 2026v Feyenoord0.741.111–3
29 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.942.033–1
15 Aug 2026at Willem II2.991.434–1
8 Aug 2026v Telstar2.151.661–2

NEC Nijmegen: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
15Points in those matches11
13.96xPts13.64
15.64xG for17.06
15.45xG against17.15

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • HeerenveenHeerenveen
    Doubtful
    L. Smans (Inactive)
  • NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
    Ruled out
    D. Geiger (Inactive) · E. Mor (Groin Injury) · B. Nuytinck (Ankle Injury) · P. Sandler (Injury) · D. Tadic (Calf Injury)
    Doubtful
    Y. Moslih (Inactive)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 16:42 GMT · not changed since

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