Inter v Fiorentina match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Inter are 70% favourites in this Serie A clash, with the model projecting 3.15 goals overall. Despite Inter's significant defensive injury problems, Fiorentina's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 70%Inter win
- 19%Draw
- 11%Fiorentina win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
InterLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
FiorentinaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 216 of 272.
- Fiorentina won 23 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Inter won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Inter 6, draws 2, Fiorentina 2
Goals: Inter 18, Fiorentina 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Fiorentina v Inter | 1–1 |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Inter v Fiorentina | 3–0 |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Inter v Fiorentina | 2–1 |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina v Inter | 3–0 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Fiorentina v Inter | 0–1 |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Inter v Fiorentina | 4–0 |
| 24 May 2023 | Fiorentina v InterCoppa Italia | 1–2 |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Inter v Fiorentina | 0–1 |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Fiorentina v Inter | 3–4 |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Inter v Fiorentina | 1–1 |
Home and away
InterInter at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonShakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20261–0
- LostClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–4
- WonParma10 Oct 20263–0
- WonUdinese14 Sep 20265–3
- WonNapoli5 Sep 20263–2
Inter: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 29 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
FiorentinaFiorentina away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostGenoa10 Oct 20261–2
- WonVenezia11 Sep 20264–2
- LostAS Roma24 Aug 20260–4
- WonJuventus17 May 20262–0
- LostAS Roma4 May 20260–4
Fiorentina: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Inter- Last match
- 4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Venezia · Serie A
Fiorentina- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Como · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Fiorentina
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 759 won, 237 drawn, 124 lost in 1120 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches | 124 won, 237 drawn, 759 lost in 1120 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches | 322 won, 394 drawn, 322 lost in 1038 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 56 won, 122 drawn, 334 lost in 512 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 371 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 17 drawn, 21 lost in 54 matches | 618 won, 536 drawn, 618 lost in 1772 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches | 452 won, 424 drawn, 452 lost in 1328 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Fiorentina | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 18 conceded (75) | 705 scored, 705 conceded (2430) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 9 conceded (27) | 248 scored, 226 conceded (825) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 3 conceded (27) | 226 scored, 248 conceded (825) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,248 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Inter | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Matches with xG | 74 |
| 145.95 | xG for | 100.23 |
| 172 | Goals scored | 91 |
| 69.52 | xG against | 93.98 |
| 67 | Goals conceded | 100 |
Inter
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Bologna | 3.22 | 1.09 | 3–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Parma | 2.42 | 0.46 | 3–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at AS Roma | 2.86 | 1.66 | 2–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Udinese | 3.05 | 0.92 | 5–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Napoli | 3.86 | 2.43 | 3–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Cagliari | 3.67 | 0.48 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Monza | 1.05 | 1.23 | 4–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Bologna | 1.78 | 1.40 | 3–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Hellas Verona | 2.56 | 1.19 | 1–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Lazio | 1.23 | 0.63 | 3–0 |
Fiorentina
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Como | 2.11 | 1.59 | 1–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Genoa | 0.82 | 1.46 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Napoli | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Venezia | 3.31 | 0.49 | 4–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 1.67 | 0.58 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Frosinone | 2.13 | 1.11 | 0–3 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.35 | 3.07 | 0–4 |
| 22 May 2026 | v Atalanta | 0.85 | 1.38 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Juventus | 0.47 | 1.98 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0–0 |
Inter: 1 without xG left outFiorentina: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Inter | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 19 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 15.72 | xPts | 10.87 |
| 20.13 | xG for | 11.53 |
| 8.27 | xG against | 9.70 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Inter and Fiorentina
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- C. Jones (Thigh Injury) · Luis Henrique (Thigh Injury) · L. Martinez (Thigh Injury) · B. Pavard (Thigh Injury) · M. Spinacce (Inactive) · J. Stones (Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Atta (Abdominal strain) · F. Parisi (Knee Injury) · L. Ranieri (Leg Injury) · R. Sottil (Back Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 10:27 GMT · not changed since
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