Inter v Parma match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 68%Inter win
- 20%Draw
- 12%Parma win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
InterLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
ParmaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 212 of 266.
- Parma won 15 of 23 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Inter won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
- Inter unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
5 meetings: Inter 3, draws 2, Parma 0
Goals: Inter 10, Parma 4
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Inter v Parma | 2–0 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Parma v Inter | 0–2 |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Parma v Inter | 2–2 |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Inter v Parma | 3–1 |
| 10 Jan 2023 | Inter v ParmaCoppa Italia | 1–1 AET 2–1 |
Home and away
InterInter at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonUdinese14 Sep 20265–3
- WonNapoli5 Sep 20263–2
- WonMonza22 Aug 20264–1
- DrawnHellas Verona17 May 20261–1
- WonParma3 May 20262–0
Inter: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 29 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
ParmaParma away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostComo14 Sep 20261–2
- LostJuventus29 Aug 20260–2
- LostComo17 May 20260–1
- LostInter3 May 20260–2
- WonUdinese18 Apr 20261–0
Parma: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 6 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Inter- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League
Parma- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
- Next match
- 9 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Parma
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 740 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1097 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 41 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 740 lost in 1097 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 40 matches | 315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches | 235 won, 402 drawn, 235 lost in 872 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 34 won, 110 drawn, 365 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 20 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 93 drawn, 384 lost in 499 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 20 drawn, 3 lost in 27 matches | 109 won, 482 drawn, 109 lost in 700 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 11 won, 83 drawn, 427 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 18 drawn, 22 lost in 54 matches | 604 won, 528 drawn, 604 lost in 1736 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 52 matches | 442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 27 conceded (74) | 692 scored, 692 conceded (2382) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 10 conceded (34) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (774) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (28) | 222 scored, 241 conceded (804) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,220 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Inter | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 73Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 74Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 141.35 | xG for | 69.01 |
| 167 | Goals scored | 66 |
| 69.01 | xG against | 110.10 |
| 66 | Goals conceded | 99 |
Inter
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at AS Roma | 2.86 | 1.66 | 2–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Udinese | 3.05 | 0.92 | 5–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Napoli | 3.86 | 2.43 | 3–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Cagliari | 3.67 | 0.48 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Monza | 1.05 | 1.23 | 4–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Bologna | 1.78 | 1.40 | 3–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Hellas Verona | 2.56 | 1.19 | 1–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Lazio | 1.23 | 0.63 | 3–0 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Parma | 2.09 | 0.27 | 2–0 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Torino | 1.60 | 2.46 | 2–2 |
Parma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Genoa | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Como | 1.15 | 2.98 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 0.73 | 1.72 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Juventus | 0.25 | 1.58 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Como | 0.43 | 2.77 | 0–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.73 | 2.62 | 2–3 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Inter | 0.27 | 2.09 | 0–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Pisa | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1–0 |
Inter: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Inter | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 10.67 | xPts | 3.89 |
| 14.49 | xG for | 3.41 |
| 6.72 | xG against | 7.92 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Inter and Parma
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 16:12 BST · not changed since
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