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Premier League
Ipswich
1–1Finished
Nottingham Forest
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 8 · Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich

Ipswich v Nottingham Forest match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Nottingham Forest hold a narrow model advantage with a 39% chance of victory over Ipswich's 34%, though a draw at 27% is very much in play. Both teams are in poor form, with Forest losing three of their last five and Ipswich winning just one. The match is expected to contain 2.74 goals.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 34%Ipswich win
  • 27%Draw
  • 39%Nottingham Forest win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

IpswichIpswich

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ipswich won 26 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Nottingham Forest won 31 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
  • Nottingham Forest won 2 of the last 3 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of Nottingham Forest's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Ipswich 0, draws 1, Nottingham Forest 2

Goals: Ipswich 3, Nottingham Forest 6

DateMatchScore
15 Mar 2025Ipswich v Nottingham Forest2–4
3 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest v IpswichFA Cup1–1 PEN
30 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest v Ipswich1–0

Home and away

Ipswich

Ipswich at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonFulham10 Oct 20262–1
  • LostArsenalLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–4
  • LostLiverpool4 Sep 20260–2
  • WonLeicesterLeague Cup25 Aug 20263–1
  • WonSunderland22 Aug 20262–1

Ipswich: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostCrystal Palace11 Oct 20261–3
  • WonAston Villa12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLiverpool29 Aug 20262–2
  • LostManchester United17 May 20262–3
  • LostAston VillaUEFA Europa League7 May 20260–4

Nottingham Forest: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Ipswich
Last match
6 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · Premier League
Next match
8 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Hull City · Premier League
Nottingham Forest
Last match
5 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · Premier League
Next match
8 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Brentford · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Ipswich

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreIpswichLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 39 matches742 won, 240 drawn, 169 lost in 1151 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 27 lost in 41 matches169 won, 240 drawn, 742 lost in 1151 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches327 won, 126 drawn, 74 lost in 527 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches301 won, 326 drawn, 301 lost in 928 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches209 won, 324 drawn, 209 lost in 742 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches52 won, 126 drawn, 355 lost in 533 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches164 won, 356 drawn, 164 lost in 684 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches124 won, 390 drawn, 124 lost in 638 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 356 lost in 477 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 19 drawn, 23 lost in 59 matches616 won, 456 drawn, 616 lost in 1688 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 46 matches430 won, 386 drawn, 430 lost in 1246 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreIpswichLeague sides
All matches35 scored, 23 conceded (83)875 scored, 875 conceded (2420)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (27)315 scored, 327 conceded (884)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (22)233 scored, 233 conceded (652)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 10 conceded (34)327 scored, 315 conceded (884)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,366 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 654)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Nottingham Forest

Since 25 Oct 2024

ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 39 matches742 won, 240 drawn, 169 lost in 1151 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches169 won, 240 drawn, 742 lost in 1151 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches301 won, 326 drawn, 301 lost in 928 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches74 won, 126 drawn, 327 lost in 527 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches209 won, 324 drawn, 209 lost in 742 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches164 won, 356 drawn, 164 lost in 684 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches408 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 414 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches124 won, 390 drawn, 124 lost in 638 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 16 drawn, 25 lost in 63 matches616 won, 456 drawn, 616 lost in 1688 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches314 won, 103 drawn, 78 lost in 495 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 49 matches430 won, 386 drawn, 430 lost in 1246 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 34 conceded (90)875 scored, 875 conceded (2420)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (34)315 scored, 327 conceded (884)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 9 conceded (25)233 scored, 233 conceded (652)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 14 conceded (31)327 scored, 315 conceded (884)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,366 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 654)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

IpswichNottingham Forest
83Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 25 Oct 2024
117.20xG for93.84
121Goals scored103
117.70xG against106.29
128Goals conceded100

Ipswich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Ipswich: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Manchester City1.723.612–3
10 Oct 2026v Fulham1.151.812–1
19 Sep 2026at Everton1.442.240–1
12 Sep 2026at Crystal Palace1.670.623–2
4 Sep 2026v Liverpool0.750.690–2
30 Aug 2026at Manchester United2.014.562–5
22 Aug 2026v Sunderland1.800.662–1
2 May 2026v QPR2.530.843–0
28 Apr 2026at Southampton1.921.012–2
25 Apr 2026at West Brom1.071.300–0

Nottingham Forest

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nottingham Forest: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026v Arsenal0.941.160–1
11 Oct 2026at Crystal Palace3.342.411–3
19 Sep 2026v Coventry1.100.670–1
12 Sep 2026at Aston Villa2.280.822–1
5 Sep 2026v Tottenham0.921.060–0
29 Aug 2026at Liverpool2.301.752–2
22 Aug 2026v Leeds0.660.470–1
24 May 2026v Bournemouth1.730.951–1
17 May 2026at Manchester United1.884.572–3
10 May 2026v Newcastle1.101.481–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

IpswichNottingham Forest
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
9Points in those matches5
8.53xPts11.44
10.54xG for11.54
14.19xG against8.34

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Ipswich and Nottingham Forest

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • IpswichIpswich
    Ruled out
    S. Lukic (Groin Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Taylor (Knee Injury)
  • Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Ruled out
    Igor Jesus (Calf Injury) · N. Savona (Knee Injury)

Published 23 Oct 2026, 19:02 BST · not changed since

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