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Süper Lig
Kasımpaşa
2–2Finished
Beşiktaş
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:00 GMTMatchday 10 · Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul

Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of victory away at Kasımpaşa, who are favoured by home advantage with a 27% win probability; a draw is possible at 27%. Expected goals stand at 1.58 for the visitors and 1.15 for the hosts (total 2.73, gap of 0.43 in Beşiktaş's favour). Both teams show decent recent form, though Beşiktaş face notable absences including Kokcu, Miretti and Rashica ruled out.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 27%Kasımpaşa win
  • 27%Draw
  • 46%Beşiktaş win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

KasımpaşaKasımpaşa

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won1–0at Eyüpspor
  2. won4–1v Samsunspor
  3. lost1–3at Galatasaray
  4. drew0–0v Konyaspor
  5. won2–1at Gençlerbirliği S.K.
BeşiktaşBeşiktaş

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0v Başakşehir
  2. drew2–2v Crystal Palace
  3. lost0–2at Trabzonspor
  4. won3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim
  5. won2–1v Kocaelispor

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Kasımpaşa won 16 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Beşiktaş won 36 of 51 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Kasımpaşa won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Kasımpaşa unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Kasımpaşa 4, draws 3, Beşiktaş 3

Goals: Kasımpaşa 18, Beşiktaş 15

DateMatchScore
19 Mar 2026Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa2–1
26 Oct 2025Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş1–1
7 Apr 2025Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş1–1
2 Nov 2024Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa1–3
26 May 2024Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş2–1
5 Jan 2024Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa1–3
3 Jun 2023Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş2–5
7 Jan 2023Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa2–1
25 Apr 2022Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa0–3
3 Dec 2021Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş1–1

Home and away

Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonSamsunspor18 Oct 20264–1
  • DrawnKonyaspor18 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnAmed6 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnTrabzonspor15 Aug 20261–1
  • WonGalatasaray17 May 20261–0

Kasımpaşa: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostTrabzonspor19 Oct 20260–2
  • Won1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–2
  • LostAmed20 Sep 20262–3
  • WonFenerbahçe5 Sep 20262–1
  • LostKauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa League27 Aug 20260–1

Beşiktaş: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Kasımpaşa
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Çorluspor 1947 · Türkiye Kupası
Next match
5 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig
Beşiktaş
Last match
6 days before26 Oct 2026 · v Başakşehir · Süper Lig
Next match
4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Celtic · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Kasımpaşa

ScoreKasımpaşaLeague sides
Scored first16 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches683 won, 198 drawn, 149 lost in 1030 matches
Conceded first5 won, 11 drawn, 22 lost in 38 matches149 won, 198 drawn, 683 lost in 1030 matches
Level at half-time4 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches275 won, 328 drawn, 275 lost in 878 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 22 matches57 won, 109 drawn, 319 lost in 485 matches
Level after 60 minutes3 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches200 won, 340 drawn, 200 lost in 740 matches
Level after 70 minutes2 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches161 won, 382 drawn, 161 lost in 704 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches121 won, 418 drawn, 121 lost in 660 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 19 drawn, 14 lost in 49 matches559 won, 462 drawn, 559 lost in 1580 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 35 matches403 won, 358 drawn, 403 lost in 1164 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 21 matches67 won, 99 drawn, 273 lost in 439 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreKasımpaşaLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 32 conceded (69)757 scored, 757 conceded (2232)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 12 conceded (23)298 scored, 263 conceded (777)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 10 conceded (26)196 scored, 196 conceded (678)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (20)263 scored, 298 conceded (777)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 15, by full time 30(league sides: 1,187 times, within 15 minutes 206, by full time 528)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Beşiktaş

ScoreBeşiktaşLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 51 matches683 won, 198 drawn, 149 lost in 1030 matches
Conceded first7 won, 8 drawn, 17 lost in 32 matches149 won, 198 drawn, 683 lost in 1030 matches
Level at half-time19 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches275 won, 328 drawn, 275 lost in 878 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches348 won, 100 drawn, 45 lost in 493 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches200 won, 340 drawn, 200 lost in 740 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches341 won, 86 drawn, 28 lost in 455 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches161 won, 382 drawn, 161 lost in 704 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches363 won, 71 drawn, 11 lost in 445 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches121 won, 418 drawn, 121 lost in 660 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 61 matches559 won, 462 drawn, 559 lost in 1580 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 46 matches403 won, 358 drawn, 403 lost in 1164 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBeşiktaşLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 22 conceded (86)757 scored, 757 conceded (2232)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (38)298 scored, 263 conceded (777)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (29)196 scored, 196 conceded (678)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 20(league sides: 1,187 times, within 15 minutes 206, by full time 528)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

KasımpaşaBeşiktaş
69Matches with xG70
82.92xG for126.09
96Goals scored118
97.26xG against71.27
105Goals conceded79

Kasımpaşa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Kasımpaşa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Eyüpspor0.590.431–0
18 Oct 2026v Samsunspor2.601.134–1
9 Oct 2026at Galatasaray0.492.521–3
18 Sep 2026v Konyaspor0.591.220–0
13 Sep 2026at Gençlerbirliği S.K.1.321.162–1
6 Sep 2026v Amed1.041.112–2
30 Aug 2026at Başakşehir1.690.761–1
22 Aug 2026at Çorum FK0.321.111–0
15 Aug 2026v Trabzonspor1.860.851–1
17 May 2026v Galatasaray0.650.551–0

Beşiktaş

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Beşiktaş: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
26 Oct 2026v Başakşehir1.880.382–0
19 Oct 2026at Trabzonspor1.192.350–2
11 Oct 2026v Kocaelispor2.211.652–1
20 Sep 2026at Amed2.041.542–3
11 Sep 2026v Erzurumspor FK2.290.503–0
5 Sep 2026at Fenerbahçe1.750.592–1
31 Aug 2026v Çorum FK2.970.676–2
23 Aug 2026at Alanyaspor0.740.540–1
16 Aug 2026v Eyüpspor1.280.091–0
15 May 2026at Rizespor1.822.872–2

This league season

Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.

KasımpaşaBeşiktaş
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
16Points in those matches18
12.31xPts17.70
10.50xG for16.35
10.29xG against8.31

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • KasımpaşaKasımpaşa
    Ruled out
    K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury) · G. Frimpong (Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Ouanes (Muscle Injury)
  • BeşiktaşBeşiktaş
    Ruled out
    O. Kokcu (Foot Injury) · F. Miretti (Injury) · M. Rashica (Muscle Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 14:58 GMT · not changed since

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