Süper Lig4–1Finished

Samsunspor

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 BSTMatchday 8 · Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul

Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Kasımpaşa hold a 45% chance of victory at home, with Samsunspor at 28% despite their five consecutive defeats. The model expects 2.68 goals total, with Kasımpaşa projected to create marginally more chances.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

45%Kasımpaşa win
27%Draw
28%Samsunspor win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Kasımpaşa

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Samsunspor

Last 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Kasımpaşa won 15 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
Samsunspor won 21 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
Samsunspor won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Kasımpaşa unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Kasımpaşa 2, draws 1, Samsunspor 3

Goals: Kasımpaşa 6, Samsunspor 9

Date	Match	Score
30 Jan 2026	Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor	0–1
17 Sep 2025	Samsunspor v Kasımpaşa	0–0
29 Mar 2025	Samsunspor v Kasımpaşa	0–2
26 Oct 2024	Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor	1–4
27 Apr 2024	Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor	1–0
9 Dec 2023	Samsunspor v Kasımpaşa	4–2

Home and away

Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa at home

Last 5: 1 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost

DrawnKonyaspor18 Sep 20260–0
DrawnAmed6 Sep 20262–2
DrawnTrabzonspor15 Aug 20261–1
WonGalatasaray17 May 20261–0
DrawnKocaelispor3 May 20261–1

Kasımpaşa: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 3 of 10
Clean sheets: 5 of 10

Samsunspor

Samsunspor away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

LostErzurumspor FK20 Sep 20260–1
LostKocaelispor6 Sep 20260–1
WonRizespor22 Aug 20262–0
LostBaşakşehir9 May 20260–3
WonAlanyaspor27 Apr 20263–2

Samsunspor: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 11 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Kasımpaşa

Last match: 9 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Galatasaray · Süper Lig
Next match: 6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig

Samsunspor

Last match: 8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Trabzonspor · Süper Lig
Next match: 6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Amed · Süper Lig

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Kasımpaşa

Score	Kasımpaşa	League sides
Scored first	15 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches	667 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1011 matches
Conceded first	5 won, 11 drawn, 22 lost in 38 matches	146 won, 198 drawn, 667 lost in 1011 matches
Level at half-time	4 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches	273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches
1 goal down at half-time	4 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 22 matches	55 won, 109 drawn, 311 lost in 475 matches
Level after 60 minutes	3 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches	199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches
Level after 70 minutes	2 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 29 matches	158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches
Level after 80 minutes	2 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches	118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches
Level after 15 minutes	14 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 48 matches	546 won, 460 drawn, 546 lost in 1552 matches
Level after 30 minutes	11 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 35 matches	397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	2 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 21 matches	65 won, 99 drawn, 263 lost in 427 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Kasımpaşa	League sides
All matches	20 scored, 34 conceded (69)	742 scored, 742 conceded (2192)
When leading after 75 minutes	9 scored, 12 conceded (22)	292 scored, 259 conceded (762)
When level after 75 minutes	4 scored, 10 conceded (26)	191 scored, 191 conceded (668)
When trailing after 75 minutes	7 scored, 12 conceded (21)	259 scored, 292 conceded (762)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 15, by full time 30(league sides: 1,167 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Samsunspor

Score	Samsunspor	League sides
Scored first	21 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches	667 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1011 matches
Conceded first	6 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 32 matches	146 won, 198 drawn, 667 lost in 1011 matches
1 goal up at half-time	15 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches	311 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 475 matches
Level at half-time	6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches	273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches
Level after 60 minutes	6 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches	199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches
Level after 70 minutes	7 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches	158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches
Level after 80 minutes	6 won, 15 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches	118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches
Level after 15 minutes	18 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 50 matches	546 won, 460 drawn, 546 lost in 1552 matches
Level after 30 minutes	18 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 39 matches	397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Samsunspor	League sides
All matches	27 scored, 24 conceded (71)	742 scored, 742 conceded (2192)
When leading after 75 minutes	10 scored, 15 conceded (25)	292 scored, 259 conceded (762)
When level after 75 minutes	5 scored, 1 conceded (20)	191 scored, 191 conceded (668)
When trailing after 75 minutes	12 scored, 8 conceded (26)	259 scored, 292 conceded (762)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,167 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

Kasımpaşa		Samsunspor
69	Matches with xG	68
82.62	xG for	88.99
94	Goals scored	92
99.83	xG against	84.23
109	Goals conceded	94

Kasımpaşa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Kasımpaşa: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026	at Galatasaray	0.49	2.52	1–3
18 Sep 2026	v Konyaspor	0.59	1.22	0–0
13 Sep 2026	at Gençlerbirliği S.K.	1.32	1.16	2–1
6 Sep 2026	v Amed	1.04	1.11	2–2
30 Aug 2026	at Başakşehir	1.69	0.76	1–1
22 Aug 2026	at Çorum FK	0.32	1.11	1–0
15 Aug 2026	v Trabzonspor	1.86	0.85	1–1
17 May 2026	v Galatasaray	0.65	0.55	1–0
9 May 2026	at Gençlerbirliği S.K.	1.98	1.86	2–3
3 May 2026	v Kocaelispor	0.85	0.64	1–1

Samsunspor

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Samsunspor: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026	v Trabzonspor	1.66	2.02	0–3
20 Sep 2026	at Erzurumspor FK	0.36	0.72	0–1
12 Sep 2026	v Çorum FK	1.23	1.73	1–5
6 Sep 2026	at Kocaelispor	1.74	1.59	0–1
30 Aug 2026	v Fenerbahçe	0.46	1.56	0–2
22 Aug 2026	at Rizespor	0.33	1.85	2–0
17 Aug 2026	v Göztepe	2.80	1.71	3–3
16 May 2026	v Göztepe	2.11	2.20	3–0
9 May 2026	at Başakşehir	0.32	3.31	0–3
2 May 2026	v Galatasaray	1.37	0.89	4–1

Samsunspor: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.

Kasımpaşa		Samsunspor
7 of 7	Matches with xG	7 of 7
10	Points in those matches	4
8.65	xPts	7.57
7.31	xG for	8.58
8.73	xG against	11.18

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Kasımpaşa
Ruled out
K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Doubtful
A. Karapo (Injury) · M. Ouanes (Muscle Injury)
Samsunspor
Ruled out
J. Assoumou (Muscle Injury)
Doubtful
C. Yuksel (Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 10:27 BST · not changed since

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