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Süper Lig
Kocaelispor
1–2Finished
Göztepe
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 8 · Turka Araç Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

Kocaelispor v Göztepe match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Kocaelispor hold a 39% model chance of victory at home, but injury absences to four players and two uncertain starters complicate their prospects. Göztepe have lost two of their last three and sit as 32% outsiders, though they drew 0-0 and 1-1 in recent head-to-head meetings. Expected goals total 2.42.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Kocaelispor win
  • 29%Draw
  • 32%Göztepe win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

KocaelisporKocaelispor

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

GöztepeGöztepe

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Kocaelispor avoided defeat in 7 of 23 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 11 Aug 2025.
  • Göztepe won 22 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Kocaelispor's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Göztepe's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Kocaelispor 0, draws 2, Göztepe 0

Goals: Kocaelispor 1, Göztepe 1

DateMatchScore
18 Apr 2026Kocaelispor v Göztepe1–1
23 Nov 2025Göztepe v Kocaelispor0–0

Home and away

Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonGaziantep FK19 Sep 20262–0
  • WonSamsunspor6 Sep 20261–0
  • WonAmed24 Aug 20262–0
  • LostFatih Karagümrük9 May 20260–1
  • DrawnGöztepe18 Apr 20261–1

Kocaelispor: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Göztepe

Göztepe away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonEyüpspor12 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnAlanyaspor12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostGalatasaray29 Aug 20262–3
  • DrawnSamsunspor17 Aug 20263–3
  • LostSamsunspor16 May 20260–3

Göztepe: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Kocaelispor
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig
Next match
5 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Alanyaspor · Süper Lig
Göztepe
Last match
6 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Çorum FK · Süper Lig

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Kocaelispor

Since 11 Aug 2025

ScoreKocaelisporLeague sides
Conceded first1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches146 won, 198 drawn, 667 lost in 1011 matches
Level at half-time4 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 23 matches273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 34 matches546 won, 460 drawn, 546 lost in 1552 matches
Level after 30 minutes8 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreKocaelisporLeague sides
All matches10 scored, 13 conceded (41)742 scored, 742 conceded (2192)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 8(league sides: 1,167 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Göztepe

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreGöztepeLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 39 matches667 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1011 matches
Conceded first3 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 24 matches146 won, 198 drawn, 667 lost in 1011 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches311 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 475 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 16 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 48 matches546 won, 460 drawn, 546 lost in 1552 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 44 matches397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGöztepeLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 19 conceded (70)742 scored, 742 conceded (2192)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (27)292 scored, 259 conceded (762)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 2 conceded (21)191 scored, 191 conceded (668)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 8 conceded (22)259 scored, 292 conceded (762)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 14(league sides: 1,167 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

KocaelisporGöztepe
41Since 11 Aug 2025Matches with xG70Since 19 Oct 2024
37.94xG for116.22
34Goals scored102
43.88xG against81.43
44Goals conceded88

Kocaelispor

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Kocaelispor: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Beşiktaş1.652.211–2
19 Sep 2026v Gaziantep FK1.301.032–0
13 Sep 2026at Galatasaray0.822.260–1
6 Sep 2026v Samsunspor1.591.741–0
29 Aug 2026at Konyaspor0.760.852–1
24 Aug 2026v Amed1.310.602–0
16 Aug 2026at Başakşehir0.431.960–2
17 May 2026at Antalyaspor0.331.350–1
9 May 2026v Fatih Karagümrük0.340.310–1
3 May 2026at Kasımpaşa0.640.851–1

Göztepe

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Göztepe: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026at Eyüpspor3.151.334–0
20 Sep 2026v Rizespor2.780.782–2
12 Sep 2026at Alanyaspor1.791.722–2
7 Sep 2026v Gaziantep FK3.261.882–4
29 Aug 2026at Galatasaray0.632.872–3
23 Aug 2026v Gençlerbirliği S.K.1.921.560–1
17 Aug 2026at Samsunspor1.712.803–3
16 May 2026at Samsunspor2.202.110–3
9 May 2026v Gaziantep FK2.080.772–1
2 May 2026at Trabzonspor1.540.791–1

This league season

Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.

KocaelisporGöztepe
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
12Points in those matches6
8.02xPts11.10
7.86xG for15.24
10.65xG against12.94

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Kocaelispor and Göztepe

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • KocaelisporKocaelispor
    Ruled out
    A. Dijksteel (Muscle Injury) · M. Haidara (Muscle Injury) · B. Petkovic (Hamstring Injury) · T. Zoukrou (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Jovanovic (Knee Injury) · M. Maglica (Injury)
  • GöztepeGöztepe
    Ruled out
    F. Bayir (Inactive) · I. Sabra (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    L. Gugeshashvili (Inactive)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since

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