Kocaelispor v Rizespor match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Kocaelispor are favoured at home with the model giving them a 46% chance of victory, though Rizespor remain competitive at 26%. The expected goal tally stands at 2.52, with a gap of 0.38 in Kocaelispor's favour. Both teams are in patchy form, but Kocaelispor are hampered by four ruled-out players, while Rizespor are without two key absentees.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 46%Kocaelispor win
- 28%Draw
- 26%Rizespor win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
KocaelisporLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
- won2–1at Alanyaspor
- lost1–2v Göztepe
- lost1–2at Beşiktaş
- won2–0v Gaziantep FK
- lost0–1at Galatasaray
RizesporLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- lost3–4v Trabzonspor
- lost1–2at Çorum FK
- lost0–3v Fenerbahçe
- drew2–2at Göztepe
- won2–0at Eyüpspor
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Kocaelispor avoided defeat in 7 of 24 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 11 Aug 2025.
- Rizespor won 20 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Kocaelispor's last 10 home league games.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of Kocaelispor's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Kocaelispor 0, draws 1, Rizespor 1
Goals: Kocaelispor 1, Rizespor 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | Rizespor v Kocaelispor | 2–0 |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Kocaelispor v Rizespor | 1–1 |
Home and away
KocaelisporKocaelispor at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostGöztepe18 Oct 20261–2
- WonGaziantep FK19 Sep 20262–0
- WonSamsunspor6 Sep 20261–0
- WonAmed24 Aug 20262–0
- LostFatih Karagümrük9 May 20260–1
Kocaelispor: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
RizesporRizespor away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- LostÇorum FK16 Oct 20261–2
- DrawnGöztepe20 Sep 20262–2
- WonEyüpspor12 Sep 20262–0
- WonGaziantep FK29 Aug 20262–1
- WonKonyaspor15 Aug 20261–0
Rizespor: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Kocaelispor- Last match
- 4 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · Türkiye Kupası
- Next match
- 7 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig
Rizespor- Last match
- 5 days before26 Oct 2026 · v Trabzonspor · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Kocaelispor
Since 11 Aug 2025
| Score | Kocaelispor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 1 won, 6 drawn, 17 lost in 24 matches | 148 won, 198 drawn, 679 lost in 1025 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 23 matches | 275 won, 326 drawn, 275 lost in 876 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches | 556 won, 460 drawn, 556 lost in 1572 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches | 401 won, 356 drawn, 401 lost in 1158 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Kocaelispor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 11 scored, 14 conceded (43) | 751 scored, 751 conceded (2220) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 22 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 8(league sides: 1,181 times, within 15 minutes 205, by full time 526)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Rizespor
Since 2 Nov 2024
| Score | Rizespor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches | 679 won, 198 drawn, 148 lost in 1025 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 5 drawn, 24 lost in 34 matches | 148 won, 198 drawn, 679 lost in 1025 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 275 won, 326 drawn, 275 lost in 876 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches | 200 won, 338 drawn, 200 lost in 738 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches | 161 won, 380 drawn, 161 lost in 702 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches | 121 won, 416 drawn, 121 lost in 658 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 19 won, 12 drawn, 22 lost in 53 matches | 556 won, 460 drawn, 556 lost in 1572 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 40 matches | 401 won, 356 drawn, 401 lost in 1158 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Rizespor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 34 conceded (70) | 751 scored, 751 conceded (2220) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 13 conceded (21) | 295 scored, 260 conceded (772) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 10 conceded (25) | 196 scored, 196 conceded (676) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 260 scored, 295 conceded (772) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,181 times, within 15 minutes 205, by full time 526)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 43Since 11 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 70Since 2 Nov 2024 |
| 40.98 | xG for | 102.90 |
| 37 | Goals scored | 103 |
| 45.29 | xG against | 89.94 |
| 47 | Goals conceded | 109 |
Kocaelispor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | at Alanyaspor | 1.54 | 0.47 | 2–1 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Göztepe | 1.50 | 0.94 | 1–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Beşiktaş | 1.65 | 2.21 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Gaziantep FK | 1.30 | 1.03 | 2–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Galatasaray | 0.82 | 2.26 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Samsunspor | 1.59 | 1.74 | 1–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Konyaspor | 0.76 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Amed | 1.31 | 0.60 | 2–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Başakşehir | 0.43 | 1.96 | 0–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Antalyaspor | 0.33 | 1.35 | 0–1 |
Rizespor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | v Trabzonspor | 1.81 | 2.63 | 3–4 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Çorum FK | 0.81 | 0.66 | 1–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fenerbahçe | 1.52 | 0.96 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Göztepe | 0.78 | 2.78 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 2.05 | 1.42 | 2–0 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Alanyaspor | 1.28 | 2.07 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.17 | 0.79 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Samsunspor | 1.85 | 0.33 | 0–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Konyaspor | 1.52 | 0.62 | 1–0 |
| 15 May 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 2.87 | 1.82 | 2–2 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 15 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 11.96 | xPts | 13.35 |
| 10.90 | xG for | 12.79 |
| 12.06 | xG against | 12.26 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Kocaelispor and Rizespor
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Haidara (Muscle Injury) · A. Jovanovic (Coach's decision) · B. Petkovic (Hamstring Injury) · T. Zoukrou (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- K. Alikulov (Knee Injury) · A. Kutucu (Inactive)
Published 31 Oct 2026, 11:58 GMT · not changed since
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