KV Mechelen v St. Truiden match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
KV Mechelen hold a 42% chance of victory on home soil against St. Truiden, with the visitors given a 32% chance. The model projects 3.07 goals total, though both teams have shown inconsistent recent form.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 42%KV Mechelen win
- 26%Draw
- 32%St. Truiden win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
KV MechelenLast 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats
St. TruidenLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- KV Mechelen won 21 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- St. Truiden won 25 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- St. Truiden won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: KV Mechelen 0, draws 1, St. Truiden 9
Goals: KV Mechelen 7, St. Truiden 23
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | St. Truiden v KV Mechelen | 3–0 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | KV Mechelen v St. Truiden | 1–4 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | St. Truiden v KV Mechelen | 1–0 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | KV Mechelen v St. Truiden | 1–3 |
| 21 Feb 2025 | KV Mechelen v St. Truiden | 1–1 |
| 8 Nov 2024 | St. Truiden v KV Mechelen | 2–1 |
| 12 May 2024 | St. Truiden v KV Mechelen | 2–1 |
| 5 Apr 2024 | KV Mechelen v St. Truiden | 2–3 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | KV Mechelen v St. Truiden | 0–2 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | St. Truiden v KV Mechelen | 2–0 |
Home and away
KV MechelenKV Mechelen at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostAnderlecht11 Sep 20260–1
- LostKVC Westerlo5 Sep 20260–4
- DrawnStandard Liege16 Aug 20263–3
- DrawnClub Brugge KV21 May 20262–2
- WonGent3 May 20261–0
KV Mechelen: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
St. TruidenSt. Truiden away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostSK Beveren12 Sep 20260–2
- WonAntwerp30 Aug 20264–1
- LostOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League27 Aug 20262–4
- DrawnCercle Brugge14 Aug 20263–3
- LostAnderlecht21 May 20261–3
St. Truiden: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
KV Mechelen- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v AS Eupen · Cup
St. Truiden- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v KVC Westerlo · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v FC Iberia 1999 · UEFA Europa Conference League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
KV Mechelen
| Score | KV Mechelen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 39 matches | 633 won, 193 drawn, 120 lost in 946 matches |
| Conceded first | 0 won, 11 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches | 120 won, 193 drawn, 633 lost in 946 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 301 won, 97 drawn, 43 lost in 441 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 240 won, 328 drawn, 240 lost in 808 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 0 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 23 matches | 43 won, 97 drawn, 301 lost in 441 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 319 won, 104 drawn, 30 lost in 453 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 23 matches | 30 won, 104 drawn, 319 lost in 453 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 21 won, 92 drawn, 332 lost in 445 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 9 won, 79 drawn, 321 lost in 409 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 21 drawn, 21 lost in 56 matches | 520 won, 408 drawn, 520 lost in 1448 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 16 drawn, 16 lost in 44 matches | 376 won, 340 drawn, 376 lost in 1092 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | KV Mechelen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 29 conceded (77) | 673 scored, 673 conceded (2040) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (22) | 260 scored, 239 conceded (733) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (22) | 174 scored, 174 conceded (574) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (33) | 239 scored, 260 conceded (733) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,077 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
St. Truiden
| Score | St. Truiden | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 633 won, 193 drawn, 120 lost in 946 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 8 drawn, 25 lost in 41 matches | 120 won, 193 drawn, 633 lost in 946 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 17 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 301 won, 97 drawn, 43 lost in 441 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 5 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches | 240 won, 328 drawn, 240 lost in 808 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 12 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 116 won, 336 drawn, 116 lost in 568 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 25 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 58 matches | 520 won, 408 drawn, 520 lost in 1448 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 4 drawn, 13 lost in 30 matches | 376 won, 340 drawn, 376 lost in 1092 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | St. Truiden | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 18 conceded (75) | 673 scored, 673 conceded (2040) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 4 conceded (26) | 260 scored, 239 conceded (733) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 6 conceded (21) | 174 scored, 174 conceded (574) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (28) | 239 scored, 260 conceded (733) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,077 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Matches with xG | 73 |
| 107.44 | xG for | 121.98 |
| 97 | Goals scored | 110 |
| 120.38 | xG against | 105.00 |
| 118 | Goals conceded | 106 |
KV Mechelen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Lommel United | 1.31 | 0.48 | 0–0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Anderlecht | 1.23 | 0.91 | 0–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v KVC Westerlo | 0.58 | 2.41 | 0–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at RAAL La Louvière | 2.11 | 2.17 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Charleroi | 0.23 | 1.44 | 0–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Standard Liege | 2.75 | 1.64 | 3–3 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at Gent | 0.34 | 1.16 | 0–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at St. Truiden | 0.42 | 1.52 | 0–3 |
| 21 May 2026 | v Club Brugge KV | 0.85 | 1.84 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Anderlecht | 1.20 | 1.01 | 2–2 |
St. Truiden
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v KVC Westerlo | 2.00 | 1.87 | 0–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at SK Beveren | 0.72 | 1.69 | 0–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v RAAL La Louvière | 2.40 | 0.44 | 4–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Union St. Gilloise | 0.85 | 2.49 | 0–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Antwerp | 3.38 | 0.77 | 4–1 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | at Cercle Brugge | 2.04 | 4.15 | 3–3 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Lommel United | 1.98 | 1.49 | 1–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v KV Mechelen | 1.52 | 0.42 | 3–0 |
| 21 May 2026 | at Anderlecht | 1.50 | 2.01 | 1–3 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Gent | 2.09 | 1.55 | 1–1 |
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 3 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 8.42 | xPts | 10.13 |
| 8.55 | xG for | 13.37 |
| 10.21 | xG against | 12.90 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: KV Mechelen and St. Truiden
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 17:13 BST · not changed since
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