KVC Westerlo v Charleroi match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
KVC Westerlo hold a 39% chance of winning according to the model, with Charleroi at 35% and a 26% draw probability. Expected goals favour Westerlo only marginally (1.56 to 1.48), pointing to a tight contest. Westerlo are on a three-game winning run, while Charleroi show mixed recent form with one loss in five.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 39%KVC Westerlo win
- 26%Draw
- 35%Charleroi win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
KVC WesterloLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- lost1–4at Anderlecht
- drew4–4v SK Beveren
- won5–1v Antwerp
- won2–0at St. Truiden
- won4–2v Standard Liege
CharleroiLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won5–2v RAAL La Louvière
- lost0–3at Antwerp
- won1–0at Standard Liege
- won3–2v Cercle Brugge
- won1–0at Zulte Waregem
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- KVC Westerlo won 21 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Charleroi won 34 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Charleroi won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of KVC Westerlo's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: KVC Westerlo 3, draws 1, Charleroi 6
Goals: KVC Westerlo 13, Charleroi 17
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Charleroi v KVC Westerlo | 0–1 |
| 5 Apr 2026 | KVC Westerlo v Charleroi | 2–0 |
| 22 Feb 2026 | KVC Westerlo v Charleroi | 2–1 |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Charleroi v KVC Westerlo | 2–0 |
| 9 May 2025 | Charleroi v KVC Westerlo | 4–3 |
| 11 Apr 2025 | KVC Westerlo v Charleroi | 2–2 |
| 22 Feb 2025 | KVC Westerlo v Charleroi | 1–3 |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Charleroi v KVC Westerlo | 1–0 |
| 1 Mar 2024 | KVC Westerlo v Charleroi | 0–1 |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Charleroi v KVC Westerlo | 3–2 |
Home and away
KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnSK Beveren24 Oct 20264–4
- WonAntwerp11 Oct 20265–1
- WonStandard Liege12 Sep 20264–2
- DrawnZulte Waregem30 Aug 20262–2
- LostUnion St. Gilloise8 Aug 20261–5
KVC Westerlo: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 25 scored, 25 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
CharleroiCharleroi away
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- LostAntwerp24 Oct 20260–3
- WonStandard Liege11 Oct 20261–0
- WonZulte Waregem13 Sep 20261–0
- WonKortrijk29 Aug 20263–1
- WonLommel United16 Aug 20261–0
Charleroi: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 2 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
KVC Westerlo- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 13 days after20 Nov 2026 · v Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi- Last match
- 6 days before1 Nov 2026 · v RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
KVC Westerlo
| Score | KVC Westerlo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 646 won, 196 drawn, 124 lost in 966 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 38 matches | 124 won, 196 drawn, 646 lost in 966 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 306 won, 100 drawn, 44 lost in 450 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches | 245 won, 328 drawn, 245 lost in 818 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 23 matches | 172 won, 304 drawn, 172 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 107 won, 368 drawn, 107 lost in 582 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 13 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 533 won, 412 drawn, 533 lost in 1478 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches | 384 won, 344 drawn, 384 lost in 1112 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | KVC Westerlo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 25 conceded (77) | 694 scored, 694 conceded (2080) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 9 conceded (23) | 270 scored, 246 conceded (749) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 7 conceded (26) | 178 scored, 178 conceded (582) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (28) | 246 scored, 270 conceded (749) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 22(league sides: 1,102 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 484)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Charleroi
| Score | Charleroi | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 45 matches | 646 won, 196 drawn, 124 lost in 966 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 10 drawn, 20 lost in 31 matches | 124 won, 196 drawn, 646 lost in 966 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 306 won, 100 drawn, 44 lost in 450 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches | 245 won, 328 drawn, 245 lost in 818 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 328 won, 106 drawn, 32 lost in 466 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches | 172 won, 304 drawn, 172 lost in 648 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 338 won, 94 drawn, 21 lost in 453 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 21 won, 94 drawn, 338 lost in 453 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 24 won, 9 drawn, 16 lost in 49 matches | 533 won, 412 drawn, 533 lost in 1478 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 14 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 257 won, 90 drawn, 50 lost in 397 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 39 matches | 384 won, 344 drawn, 384 lost in 1112 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Charleroi | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 20 conceded (78) | 694 scored, 694 conceded (2080) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (34) | 270 scored, 246 conceded (749) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 3 conceded (26) | 246 scored, 270 conceded (749) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 20(league sides: 1,102 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 484)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Matches with xG | 78 |
| 123.83 | xG for | 121.23 |
| 121 | Goals scored | 115 |
| 127.32 | xG against | 99.90 |
| 125 | Goals conceded | 93 |
KVC Westerlo
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Anderlecht | 0.77 | 2.63 | 1–4 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v SK Beveren | 2.41 | 2.08 | 4–4 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Antwerp | 2.28 | 0.92 | 5–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at St. Truiden | 1.87 | 2.00 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Standard Liege | 1.41 | 1.22 | 4–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at KV Mechelen | 2.41 | 0.58 | 4–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Zulte Waregem | 2.16 | 1.51 | 2–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Lommel United | 0.65 | 1.17 | 0–4 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Genk | 0.85 | 4.24 | 2–3 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Union St. Gilloise | 0.76 | 1.79 | 1–5 |
Charleroi
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | v RAAL La Louvière | 2.19 | 0.97 | 5–2 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Antwerp | 1.97 | 1.45 | 0–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Standard Liege | 0.99 | 1.78 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Cercle Brugge | 2.04 | 2.08 | 3–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Zulte Waregem | 1.64 | 1.00 | 1–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Union St. Gilloise | 2.18 | 1.24 | 2–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Kortrijk | 1.69 | 1.20 | 3–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v KV Mechelen | 1.44 | 0.23 | 2–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Lommel United | 1.25 | 0.34 | 1–0 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v OH Leuven | 3.15 | 1.30 | 3–1 |
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 24 |
| 13.07 | xPts | 18.35 |
| 15.57 | xG for | 18.54 |
| 18.14 | xG against | 11.59 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: KVC Westerlo and Charleroi
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since
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