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Serie A
Lazio
3–1Finished
Monza
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 6

Lazio v Monza match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Lazio are the clear favourites with a 53% model win probability, expecting to dominate a Monza side that has struggled against them recently. The model forecasts 2.66 goals total with Lazio creating the larger expected-goals advantage, though absences in their squad introduce uncertainty.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 53%Lazio win
  • 26%Draw
  • 21%Monza win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LazioLazio

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

MonzaMonza

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lazio won 35 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 212 of 266.
  • Lazio won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Monza's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Lazio 4, draws 2, Monza 0

Goals: Lazio 12, Monza 4

DateMatchScore
9 Feb 2025Lazio v Monza5–1
10 Nov 2024Monza v Lazio0–1
4 May 2024Monza v Lazio2–2
23 Sep 2023Lazio v Monza1–1
2 Apr 2023Monza v Lazio0–2
10 Nov 2022Lazio v Monza1–0

Home and away

Lazio

Lazio at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnAC Milan12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonGenoa30 Aug 20261–0
  • LostMantovaCoppa Italia16 Aug 20260–2
  • WonPisa23 May 20262–1
  • LostInterCoppa Italia13 May 20260–2

Lazio: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Monza

Monza away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostLecce13 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnParma6 Sep 20261–1
  • WonTorinoCoppa Italia1 Sep 20261–0
  • LostInter22 Aug 20261–4
  • WonCatanzaroSerie B · Italy24 May 20262–0

Monza: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lazio
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Venezia · Serie A
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
Monza
Last match
23 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Sassuolo · Serie A
Next match
8 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lazio

ScoreLazioLeague sides
Scored first35 won, 10 drawn, 0 lost in 45 matches742 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1099 matches
Conceded first3 won, 8 drawn, 21 lost in 32 matches123 won, 234 drawn, 742 lost in 1099 matches
1 goal up at half-time19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches328 won, 120 drawn, 56 lost in 504 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 34 matches315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches365 won, 110 drawn, 34 lost in 509 matches
Level after 60 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches235 won, 402 drawn, 235 lost in 872 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches384 won, 93 drawn, 22 lost in 499 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 14 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches427 won, 83 drawn, 11 lost in 521 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches109 won, 482 drawn, 109 lost in 700 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 22 drawn, 13 lost in 63 matches605 won, 528 drawn, 605 lost in 1738 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 19 drawn, 10 lost in 47 matches442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLazioLeague sides
All matches40 scored, 18 conceded (84)693 scored, 693 conceded (2386)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 6 conceded (30)242 scored, 222 conceded (806)
When level after 75 minutes17 scored, 7 conceded (29)229 scored, 229 conceded (774)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)222 scored, 242 conceded (806)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 12(league sides: 1,222 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LazioMonza
74Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG36Since 21 Oct 2024
95.58xG for36.60
96Goals scored31
84.82xG against52.91
81Goals conceded72

Lazio

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lazio: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Venezia1.601.892–0
12 Sep 2026v AC Milan2.011.252–2
7 Sep 2026at Udinese1.830.852–1
30 Aug 2026v Genoa1.620.421–0
24 Aug 2026at Bologna0.631.781–0
23 May 2026v Pisa1.111.562–1
17 May 2026at AS Roma0.691.190–2
9 May 2026v Inter0.631.230–3
4 May 2026at Cremonese0.800.552–1
27 Apr 2026v Udinese2.461.933–3

Monza

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monza: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026v Sassuolo1.511.472–1
13 Sep 2026at Lecce2.791.082–3
6 Sep 2026at Parma1.720.731–1
29 Aug 2026v Udinese1.700.982–3
22 Aug 2026at Inter1.231.051–4
24 May 2025at AC Milan0.341.490–2
18 May 2025v Empoli1.151.271–3
11 May 2025at Udinese1.601.642–1
4 May 2025v Atalanta0.812.470–4
27 Apr 2025at Juventus0.671.400–2

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

LazioMonza
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
13Points in those matches4
7.97xPts9.17
7.69xG for8.95
6.19xG against5.31

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lazio and Monza

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LazioLazioM. Cancellieri (Leg Injury) · A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury) · A. Gudmundsson (Shoulder Injury) · A. Marusic (Muscle Injury) · L. Pellegrini (Inactive) · N. Rovella (Calf Injury)
  • MonzaMonzaP. Ciurria (Muscle Injury) · O. Forson (Inactive)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 13:37 BST · not changed since

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