Lazio v Parma match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lazio hold a 58% chance of winning at home against Parma, who have managed just 16% according to the model. Lazio's strong recent run contrasts with Parma's inconsistent form, and the expected total is 2.35 goals.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 58%Lazio win
- 26%Draw
- 16%Parma win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LazioLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
ParmaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lazio won 37 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 24 Oct 2024.
- Parma won 15 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Parma without a win in their last 5 away games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Parma's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Lazio 1, draws 2, Parma 1
Goals: Lazio 5, Parma 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Lazio v Parma | 1–1 |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Parma v Lazio | 0–1 |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Lazio v Parma | 2–2 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Parma v Lazio | 3–1 |
Home and away
LazioLazio at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonMonza11 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnAC Milan12 Sep 20262–2
- WonGenoa30 Aug 20261–0
- LostMantovaCoppa Italia16 Aug 20260–2
- WonPisa23 May 20262–1
Lazio: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
ParmaParma away
Last 5: 0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost
- LostInter10 Oct 20260–3
- LostComo14 Sep 20261–2
- LostJuventus29 Aug 20260–2
- LostComo17 May 20260–1
- LostInter3 May 20260–2
Parma: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 5 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lazio- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Sassuolo · Serie A
Parma- Last match
- 5 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lazio
Since 24 Oct 2024
| Score | Lazio | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 37 won, 10 drawn, 0 lost in 47 matches | 758 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1118 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 8 drawn, 20 lost in 31 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 758 lost in 1118 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 334 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 511 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 321 won, 394 drawn, 321 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 371 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 390 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 506 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 16 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 22 drawn, 12 lost in 63 matches | 617 won, 534 drawn, 617 lost in 1768 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 19 drawn, 9 lost in 47 matches | 451 won, 424 drawn, 451 lost in 1326 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lazio | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 42 scored, 17 conceded (85) | 702 scored, 702 conceded (2426) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 17 scored, 6 conceded (32) | 248 scored, 225 conceded (824) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 17 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 225 scored, 248 conceded (824) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 12(league sides: 1,246 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Parma
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 758 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1118 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 30 lost in 43 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 758 lost in 1118 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 39 matches | 321 won, 394 drawn, 321 lost in 1036 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 371 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 390 lost in 506 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 19 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 17 drawn, 22 lost in 53 matches | 617 won, 534 drawn, 617 lost in 1768 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 52 matches | 451 won, 424 drawn, 451 lost in 1326 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 27 conceded (75) | 702 scored, 702 conceded (2426) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 10 conceded (33) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (30) | 225 scored, 248 conceded (824) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,246 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Lazio | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 75 |
| 97.92 | xG for | 70.57 |
| 102 | Goals scored | 65 |
| 85.98 | xG against | 112.82 |
| 81 | Goals conceded | 104 |
Lazio
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Juventus | 0.57 | 0.75 | 3–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Monza | 1.84 | 1.76 | 3–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Venezia | 1.60 | 1.89 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v AC Milan | 2.01 | 1.25 | 2–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.83 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Genoa | 1.62 | 0.42 | 1–0 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at Bologna | 0.63 | 1.78 | 1–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Pisa | 1.11 | 1.56 | 2–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.69 | 1.19 | 0–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Inter | 0.63 | 1.23 | 0–3 |
Parma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Torino | 1.61 | 1.58 | 0–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Inter | 0.46 | 2.42 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Genoa | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Como | 1.15 | 2.98 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 0.73 | 1.72 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Juventus | 0.25 | 1.58 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Como | 0.43 | 2.77 | 0–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.73 | 2.62 | 2–3 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Lazio | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 19 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 10.55 | xPts | 5.59 |
| 10.10 | xG for | 5.48 |
| 8.70 | xG against | 11.92 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lazio and Parma
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury) · A. Gudmundsson (Shoulder Injury) · A. Marusic (Muscle Injury) · N. Rovella (Calf Injury)
- Ruled out
- P. Almqvist (Calf Injury) · N. Elphege (Illness) · H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Thigh Injury) · L. Valenti (Coach's decision)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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