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Ligue 1
Le Havre
1–3Finished
Auxerre
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade Océane, Le Havre

Le Havre v Auxerre match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model makes Le Havre slight favourites with a 39% win chance against Auxerre's 33%, with a 29% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.51. Both teams are heavily depleted by injuries, complicating their preparation for this fixture.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Le Havre win
  • 29%Draw
  • 32%Auxerre win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Le HavreLe Havre

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

AuxerreAuxerre

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Le Havre won 12 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Auxerre won 17 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Le Havre won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Le Havre without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Le Havre 4, draws 1, Auxerre 1

Goals: Le Havre 11, Auxerre 7

DateMatchScore
5 Apr 2026Le Havre v Auxerre1–1
26 Oct 2025Auxerre v Le Havre0–1
4 May 2025Auxerre v Le Havre1–2
1 Sep 2024Le Havre v Auxerre3–1
7 May 2022Le Havre v AuxerreLigue 21–2
21 Dec 2021Auxerre v Le HavreLigue 22–3

Home and away

Le Havre

Le Havre at home

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnAngers12 Sep 20260–0
  • LostStade Brestois 295 Sep 20261–2
  • LostMonaco23 Aug 20260–1
  • LostMarseille10 May 20260–1
  • DrawnMetz26 Apr 20264–4

Le Havre: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Auxerre

Auxerre away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostRennes11 Oct 20261–4
  • LostLyon4 Sep 20261–3
  • LostLens22 Aug 20262–5
  • WonLille17 May 20262–0
  • LostLyon25 Apr 20262–3

Auxerre: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Le Havre
Last match
8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
Auxerre
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Le Havre

ScoreLe HavreLeague sides
Scored first12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches636 won, 166 drawn, 111 lost in 913 matches
Conceded first3 won, 7 drawn, 30 lost in 40 matches111 won, 166 drawn, 636 lost in 913 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches176 won, 282 drawn, 176 lost in 634 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches29 won, 83 drawn, 312 lost in 424 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches140 won, 298 drawn, 140 lost in 578 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches22 won, 79 drawn, 316 lost in 417 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches118 won, 334 drawn, 118 lost in 570 matches
Level after 15 minutes10 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 46 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches348 won, 314 drawn, 348 lost in 1010 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches59 won, 69 drawn, 266 lost in 394 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLe HavreLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 24 conceded (67)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 5 conceded (22)155 scored, 155 conceded (552)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 11 conceded (30)222 scored, 274 conceded (706)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Auxerre

ScoreAuxerreLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches636 won, 166 drawn, 111 lost in 913 matches
Conceded first2 won, 4 drawn, 26 lost in 32 matches111 won, 166 drawn, 636 lost in 913 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 32 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches176 won, 282 drawn, 176 lost in 634 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches140 won, 298 drawn, 140 lost in 578 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches118 won, 334 drawn, 118 lost in 570 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 49 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 41 matches348 won, 314 drawn, 348 lost in 1010 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAuxerreLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 25 conceded (67)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 4 conceded (24)155 scored, 155 conceded (552)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 11 conceded (24)222 scored, 274 conceded (706)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 17(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

Le HavreAuxerre
67Matches with xG67
81.64xG for77.46
69Goals scored81
112.90xG against105.79
108Goals conceded96

Le Havre

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Le Havre: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Lille1.281.260–1
19 Sep 2026at Toulouse2.341.952–3
12 Sep 2026v Angers1.310.590–0
5 Sep 2026v Stade Brestois 292.022.371–2
29 Aug 2026at Lyon0.691.751–1
23 Aug 2026v Monaco0.601.390–1
17 May 2026at Lorient1.251.302–0
10 May 2026v Marseille1.141.210–1
3 May 2026at Lille0.141.551–1
26 Apr 2026v Metz1.991.584–4

Auxerre

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Auxerre: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Rennes1.762.561–4
20 Sep 2026v Stade Brestois 290.960.342–1
12 Sep 2026v Nice1.741.081–0
4 Sep 2026at Lyon0.712.851–3
29 Aug 2026v Angers1.811.551–3
22 Aug 2026at Lens1.844.412–5
17 May 2026at Lille0.541.722–0
10 May 2026v Nice0.841.332–1
3 May 2026v Angers2.032.203–1
25 Apr 2026at Lyon0.522.122–3

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Le HavreAuxerre
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
2Points in those matches6
7.54xPts6.94
8.24xG for8.82
9.31xG against12.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Le Havre and Auxerre

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Le HavreLe Havre
    Ruled out
    E. Jelert (Thigh Injury) · F. Mambimbi (Achilles Tendon Injury) · L. Mpasi-Nzau (Achilles Tendon Injury) · T. Pembele (Muscle Injury) · A. Seko (Red Card) · A. Toure (Knee Injury) · S. Zagadou (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Fofana (Inactive)
  • AuxerreAuxerre
    Ruled out
    A. Diousse (Knee Injury) · S. Fofana (Groin Injury) · R. Labeau Lascary (Injury) · B. Okoh (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    C. Akpa (Injury) · R. Mandengue (Muscle Injury) · M. Senaya (Hamstring Injury) · T. Siwe (Muscle Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:12 BST · not changed since

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