Le Mans v Toulouse match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 16 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Le Mans are given a 41% chance to win at home against Toulouse, who sit at 32% despite being the away side. The model expects 2.76 goals, with Le Mans projected to slightly exceed Toulouse in expected goals (1.47 to 1.29). However, Le Mans are without five squad members through injury or coach's decision.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Le Mans win
- 27%Draw
- 32%Toulouse win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
Le MansLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
ToulouseLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 231.
- Toulouse won 20 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Le Mans unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 away league games.
Home and away
Le MansLe Mans at home
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLorient19 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnLens13 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnStade Brestois 2922 Aug 20262–2
- DrawnReimsLigue 22 May 20261–1
- WonClermont FootLigue 217 Apr 20261–0
Le Mans: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 8 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
ToulouseToulouse away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnMonaco10 Oct 20262–2
- DrawnLorient12 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnStade Brestois 2929 Aug 20262–2
- WonStrasbourg3 May 20262–1
- LostLensCoupe de France21 Apr 20261–4
Toulouse: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Le Mans- Last match
- 6 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 9 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Auxerre · Ligue 1
Toulouse- Last match
- 6 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Monaco · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 9 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Toulouse
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 634 won, 165 drawn, 110 lost in 909 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 11 drawn, 21 lost in 35 matches | 110 won, 165 drawn, 634 lost in 909 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches | 253 won, 276 drawn, 253 lost in 782 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 16 lost in 24 matches | 28 won, 82 drawn, 312 lost in 422 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 140 won, 296 drawn, 140 lost in 576 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 21 won, 79 drawn, 316 lost in 416 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches | 8 won, 66 drawn, 316 lost in 390 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 49 matches | 511 won, 354 drawn, 511 lost in 1376 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches | 346 won, 314 drawn, 346 lost in 1006 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 18 conceded (66) | 647 scored, 647 conceded (1956) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 155 scored, 155 conceded (550) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 10 conceded (29) | 219 scored, 273 conceded (703) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,058 times, within 15 minutes 160, by full time 462)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Le Mans | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 66 |
| — | xG for | 95.35 |
| — | Goals scored | 94 |
| — | xG against | 84.53 |
| — | Goals conceded | 90 |
Toulouse
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Monaco | 1.43 | 1.17 | 2–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.95 | 2.34 | 3–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lorient | 1.63 | 0.93 | 2–2 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Lille | 3.46 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1.14 | 3.04 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Lyon | 2.77 | 0.70 | 0–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Lyon | 1.13 | 1.54 | 2–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.36 | 0.41 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Monaco | 1.75 | 0.74 | 2–2 |
| 17 Apr 2026 | at Lens | 0.41 | 3.76 | 2–3 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Le Mans | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 6 | Points in those matches | 6 |
| 6.75 | xPts | 10.10 |
| 9.95 | xG for | 12.38 |
| 13.80 | xG against | 9.39 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Le Mans and Toulouse
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Bourabaa (Ankle Injury) · E. Colas (Injury) · T. Eyoum (Coach's decision) · E. Quarshie (Coach's decision) · M. Rossignol (Injury)
Published 16 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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