Lecce v Bologna match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Bologna are the model's choice to win, with a 45% probability against Lecce's 26%, though the draw is also likely at 29%. Bologna project 1.35 expected goals to Lecce's 0.91, suggesting control of the match. Lecce have won only once in five recent games, but Bologna's consistency is tempered by their three draws in five outings.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 26%Lecce win
- 29%Draw
- 45%Bologna win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LecceLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
BolognaLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lecce won 18 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Bologna won 30 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Bologna won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Lecce 0, draws 3, Bologna 5
Goals: Lecce 5, Bologna 15
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Bologna v Lecce | 2–0 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Lecce v Bologna | 2–2 |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Lecce v Bologna | 0–0 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Bologna v Lecce | 1–0 |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Bologna v Lecce | 4–0 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Lecce v Bologna | 1–1 |
| 4 Jun 2023 | Lecce v Bologna | 2–3 |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Bologna v Lecce | 2–0 |
Home and away
LecceLecce at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonMonza13 Sep 20263–2
- LostAS Roma31 Aug 20260–4
- WonGenoa24 May 20261–0
- LostJuventus9 May 20260–1
- DrawnFiorentina20 Apr 20261–1
Lecce: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
BolognaBologna away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostNapoli13 Sep 20260–1
- LostAtalanta31 Aug 20260–1
- WonAtalanta17 May 20261–0
- WonNapoli11 May 20263–2
- LostJuventus19 Apr 20260–2
Bologna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lecce- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A
- Next match
- 7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
Bologna- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lecce
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches | 742 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1099 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 4 drawn, 33 lost in 38 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 742 lost in 1099 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches | 315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 30 matches | 235 won, 402 drawn, 235 lost in 872 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 34 won, 110 drawn, 365 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 2 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches | 22 won, 93 drawn, 384 lost in 499 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 22 lost in 24 matches | 11 won, 83 drawn, 427 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 26 lost in 54 matches | 605 won, 528 drawn, 605 lost in 1738 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches | 442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 12 scored, 20 conceded (74) | 693 scored, 693 conceded (2386) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 1 scored, 6 conceded (20) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (774) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (36) | 222 scored, 242 conceded (806) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 8(league sides: 1,222 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bologna
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 45 matches | 742 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1099 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 9 drawn, 26 lost in 43 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 742 lost in 1099 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 13 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 328 won, 120 drawn, 56 lost in 504 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 43 matches | 315 won, 390 drawn, 315 lost in 1020 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 17 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches | 365 won, 110 drawn, 34 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 235 won, 402 drawn, 235 lost in 872 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 14 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 384 won, 93 drawn, 22 lost in 499 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 178 won, 444 drawn, 178 lost in 800 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 427 won, 83 drawn, 11 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 109 won, 482 drawn, 109 lost in 700 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 21 drawn, 25 lost in 75 matches | 605 won, 528 drawn, 605 lost in 1738 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 55 matches | 442 won, 420 drawn, 442 lost in 1304 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 27 conceded (94) | 693 scored, 693 conceded (2386) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 15 conceded (41) | 242 scored, 222 conceded (806) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (774) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 6 conceded (25) | 222 scored, 242 conceded (806) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,222 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 544)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Lecce | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 74Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 63.62 | xG for | 91.70 |
| 57 | Goals scored | 102 |
| 116.23 | xG against | 78.99 |
| 106 | Goals conceded | 90 |
Lecce
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at AC Milan | 0.21 | 2.19 | 0–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 1.08 | 2.79 | 3–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Cagliari | 0.50 | 1.61 | 0–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.80 | 3.27 | 0–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Venezia | 2.70 | 2.05 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.43 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Sassuolo | 0.86 | 2.02 | 3–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Juventus | 0.88 | 2.29 | 0–1 |
| 1 May 2026 | at Pisa | 0.88 | 2.23 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Hellas Verona | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0–0 |
Bologna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Napoli | 0.29 | 1.19 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.05 | 0.15 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Lazio | 1.78 | 0.63 | 0–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Inter | 1.40 | 1.78 | 3–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.69 | 0.76 | 1–0 |
| 11 May 2026 | at Napoli | 1.26 | 0.80 | 3–2 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.53 | 1.07 | 0–0 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.50 | 2.13 | 0–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Lecce | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 6 | Points in those matches | 2 |
| 3.33 | xPts | 7.63 |
| 5.29 | xG for | 5.92 |
| 11.91 | xG against | 4.73 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lecce and Bologna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 11 Oct 2026, 13:37 BST · not changed since
All fixtures