Lecce v Juventus match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Juventus are given a 57% chance to win this fixture. The model expects 2.46 goals and projects a attacking advantage of 0.86 in Juventus's favour. Both sides face substantial injury lists heading into the match.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 17%Lecce win
- 26%Draw
- 57%Juventus win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LecceLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
JuventusLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lecce won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 39 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Lecce 0, draws 2, Juventus 6
Goals: Lecce 4, Juventus 12
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Lecce v Juventus | 0–1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Juventus v Lecce | 1–1 |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Juventus v Lecce | 2–1 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Lecce v Juventus | 1–1 |
| 21 Jan 2024 | Lecce v Juventus | 0–3 |
| 26 Sep 2023 | Juventus v Lecce | 1–0 |
| 3 May 2023 | Juventus v Lecce | 2–1 |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Lecce v Juventus | 0–1 |
Home and away
LecceLecce at home
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostBologna11 Oct 20261–2
- WonMonza13 Sep 20263–2
- LostAS Roma31 Aug 20260–4
- WonGenoa24 May 20261–0
- LostJuventus9 May 20260–1
Lecce: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
JuventusJuventus away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonCelta VigoUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
- DrawnCagliari11 Oct 20261–1
- LostSassuolo13 Sep 20262–3
- WonFrosinone23 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnTorino24 May 20262–2
Juventus: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lecce- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A
Juventus- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lecce
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches | 760 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1123 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 4 drawn, 33 lost in 38 matches | 125 won, 238 drawn, 760 lost in 1123 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 30 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches | 34 won, 112 drawn, 372 lost in 518 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 2 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches | 23 won, 96 drawn, 391 lost in 510 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 25 matches | 12 won, 85 drawn, 433 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 26 lost in 54 matches | 620 won, 538 drawn, 620 lost in 1778 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lecce | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 708 scored, 708 conceded (2436) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 1 scored, 6 conceded (20) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (36) | 229 scored, 248 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,254 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Juventus
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 39 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 53 matches | 760 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1123 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 35 matches | 125 won, 238 drawn, 760 lost in 1123 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 18 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 335 won, 123 drawn, 56 lost in 514 matches |
| Level at half-time | 16 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 37 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches | 56 won, 123 drawn, 335 lost in 514 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches | 372 won, 112 drawn, 34 lost in 518 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 19 drawn, 5 lost in 37 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 391 won, 96 drawn, 23 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 21 drawn, 3 lost in 33 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 433 won, 85 drawn, 12 lost in 530 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 22 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 28 drawn, 11 lost in 68 matches | 620 won, 538 drawn, 620 lost in 1778 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 15 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 292 won, 111 drawn, 58 lost in 461 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 23 won, 20 drawn, 10 lost in 53 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 35 scored, 23 conceded (95) | 708 scored, 708 conceded (2436) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 9 conceded (46) | 248 scored, 229 conceded (828) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 9 conceded (23) | 229 scored, 248 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 30(league sides: 1,254 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Lecce | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 26 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 68.38 | xG for | 120.33 |
| 61 | Goals scored | 117 |
| 116.51 | xG against | 68.60 |
| 102 | Goals conceded | 76 |
Lecce
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Udinese | 3.47 | 0.54 | 3–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Bologna | 1.49 | 1.98 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at AC Milan | 0.21 | 2.19 | 0–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 1.08 | 2.79 | 3–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Cagliari | 0.50 | 1.61 | 0–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.80 | 3.27 | 0–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Venezia | 2.70 | 2.05 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.43 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Sassuolo | 0.86 | 2.02 | 3–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Juventus | 0.88 | 2.29 | 0–1 |
Juventus
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Lazio | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Cagliari | 1.95 | 0.52 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Atalanta | 1.31 | 0.60 | 2–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.10 | 1.02 | 2–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.59 | 0.11 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Parma | 1.58 | 0.25 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Frosinone | 2.18 | 0.41 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Torino | 1.92 | 0.85 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.98 | 0.47 | 0–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Lecce | 2.29 | 0.88 | 1–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Lecce | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 7.19 | xPts | 14.52 |
| 10.25 | xG for | 10.46 |
| 14.43 | xG against | 3.48 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lecce and Juventus
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Berisha (Thigh Injury) · L. Coulibaly (Thigh Injury) · I. Ilic (Thigh Injury) · S. Pierotti (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- Z. Celik (Muscle Injury) · F. Conceicao (Shoulder Injury) · J. Ekhator (Muscle Injury) · N. Gonzalez (Calf Injury) · K. Grabara (Knee Injury) · M. Locatelli (Knee Injury) · A. Milik (Inactive) · K. Thuram (Knee Injury) · K. Yildiz (Foot Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:57 GMT · not changed since
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