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Premier League
Leeds
1–1Finished
Manchester United
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 7 · Elland Road, Leeds

Leeds v Manchester United match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Leeds are favoured at 40% to win against injury-hit Manchester United in a tight contest with 2.78 expected goals. Leeds won their last meeting 2-1 in April, and recent form slightly favours the hosts despite Manchester United's squad depth issues.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Leeds win
  • 27%Draw
  • 33%Manchester United win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LeedsLeeds

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Leeds won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Manchester United won 28 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Manchester United won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Leeds unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Leeds 1, draws 2, Manchester United 3

Goals: Leeds 8, Manchester United 15

DateMatchScore
13 Apr 2026Manchester United v Leeds1–2
4 Jan 2026Leeds v Manchester United1–1
12 Feb 2023Leeds v Manchester United0–2
8 Feb 2023Manchester United v Leeds2–2
20 Feb 2022Leeds v Manchester United2–4
14 Aug 2021Manchester United v Leeds5–1

Home and away

Leeds

Leeds at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnCrystal Palace20 Sep 20260–0
  • WonNewcastle14 Sep 20264–1
  • DrawnBrentford30 Aug 20261–1
  • WonBrighton17 May 20261–0
  • WonBurnley1 May 20263–1

Leeds: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 6 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Manchester United

Manchester United away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–2
  • DrawnFulham20 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnEverton6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostHull City22 Aug 20260–2
  • WonBrighton24 May 20263–0

Manchester United: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Leeds
Last match
8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · Premier League
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Sunderland · Premier League
Manchester United
Last match
5 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Como · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Leeds

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreLeedsLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 44 matches738 won, 239 drawn, 169 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first5 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 30 matches169 won, 239 drawn, 738 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches406 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 412 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 20 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 21 drawn, 14 lost in 55 matches615 won, 454 drawn, 615 lost in 1684 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 16 drawn, 10 lost in 39 matches429 won, 384 drawn, 429 lost in 1242 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLeedsLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 23 conceded (81)872 scored, 872 conceded (2410)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 10 conceded (34)313 scored, 327 conceded (881)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 8 conceded (29)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 34 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,361 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 652)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Manchester United

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 45 matches738 won, 239 drawn, 169 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first11 won, 7 drawn, 25 lost in 43 matches169 won, 239 drawn, 738 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 16 drawn, 12 lost in 43 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches354 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 532 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches52 won, 126 drawn, 354 lost in 532 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches348 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 498 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes3 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 24 matches37 won, 113 drawn, 348 lost in 498 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches354 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 475 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 354 lost in 475 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 20 drawn, 16 lost in 65 matches615 won, 454 drawn, 615 lost in 1684 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches312 won, 103 drawn, 78 lost in 493 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 16 drawn, 13 lost in 48 matches429 won, 384 drawn, 429 lost in 1242 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
All matches44 scored, 29 conceded (90)872 scored, 872 conceded (2410)
When leading after 75 minutes18 scored, 18 conceded (37)313 scored, 327 conceded (881)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 3 conceded (20)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes16 scored, 8 conceded (33)327 scored, 313 conceded (881)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 28(league sides: 1,361 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 652)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LeedsManchester United
81Since 18 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 19 Oct 2024
137.12xG for118.02
137Goals scored117
88.04xG against100.64
84Goals conceded105

Leeds

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Leeds: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Arsenal0.622.331–2
20 Sep 2026v Crystal Palace1.311.060–0
14 Sep 2026v Newcastle2.080.884–1
5 Sep 2026at Brighton2.492.191–1
30 Aug 2026v Brentford1.461.671–1
22 Aug 2026at Nottingham Forest0.470.661–0
24 May 2026at West Ham1.592.610–3
17 May 2026v Brighton0.393.061–0
11 May 2026at Tottenham1.341.271–1
1 May 2026v Burnley1.640.573–1

Manchester United

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester United: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Tottenham0.801.621–1
20 Sep 2026at Fulham1.601.621–1
13 Sep 2026v Manchester City1.001.100–1
6 Sep 2026at Everton0.691.012–2
30 Aug 2026v Ipswich4.562.015–2
22 Aug 2026at Hull City1.831.010–2
24 May 2026at Brighton1.660.793–0
17 May 2026v Nottingham Forest4.571.883–2
9 May 2026at Sunderland0.621.250–0
3 May 2026v Liverpool2.340.893–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LeedsManchester United
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
9Points in those matches6
8.02xPts8.90
8.43xG for10.48
8.79xG against8.37

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Leeds and Manchester United

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LeedsLeeds
    Ruled out
    M. Joseph (Knee Injury) · J. Rodon (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. James (Back Injury)
  • Manchester UnitedManchester United
    Ruled out
    P. Dorgu (Hamstring Injury) · T. Heaton (Abdominal strain) · B. Sesko (Leg Injury) · M. Ugarte (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Mainoo (Injury) · N. Mazraoui (Injury) · L. Shaw (Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since

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