Lens v Lyon match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 36%Lens win
- 26%Draw
- 38%Lyon win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LensLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
LyonLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lens won 30 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Lyon won 42 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Lens won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Lens 5, draws 3, Lyon 2
Goals: Lens 17, Lyon 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Lyon v Lens | 0–4 |
| 5 Mar 2026 | Lyon v LensCoupe de France | 2–2 PEN |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Lens v Lyon | 0–1 |
| 4 May 2025 | Lyon v Lens | 1–2 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Lens v Lyon | 0–0 |
| 3 Mar 2024 | Lyon v Lens | 0–3 |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Lens v Lyon | 3–2 |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Lyon v Lens | 2–1 |
| 2 Oct 2022 | Lens v Lyon | 1–0 |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Lens v Lyon | 1–1 |
Home and away
LensLens at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostLorient5 Sep 20260–1
- WonAuxerre22 Aug 20265–2
- WonNiceCoupe de France22 May 20263–1
- LostParis Saint Germain13 May 20260–2
- WonNantes8 May 20261–0
Lens: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
LyonLyon away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonAnderlechtUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnParis FC12 Sep 20260–0
- WonToulouse22 Aug 20262–0
- DrawnFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League18 Aug 20261–1
- LostSparta PrahaUEFA Champions League4 Aug 20261–2
Lyon: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lens- Last match
- 21 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Monaco · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 4 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Sporting CP · UEFA Champions League
Lyon- Last match
- 20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lens
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Lens | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost in 36 matches | 627 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 900 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 4 drawn, 19 lost in 30 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 627 lost in 900 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches | 173 won, 280 drawn, 173 lost in 626 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 4 drawn, 9 lost in 22 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 6 drawn, 17 lost in 49 matches | 506 won, 352 drawn, 506 lost in 1364 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches | 341 won, 314 drawn, 341 lost in 996 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lens | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 18 conceded (67) | 641 scored, 641 conceded (1938) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 3 conceded (29) | 269 scored, 218 conceded (696) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 11 conceded (20) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (546) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,047 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Lyon
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Lyon | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 42 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 55 matches | 627 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 900 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 17 lost in 29 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 627 lost in 900 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 18 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 309 won, 83 drawn, 40 lost in 432 matches |
| Level at half-time | 19 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 37 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 308 won, 82 drawn, 28 lost in 418 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 173 won, 280 drawn, 173 lost in 626 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 22 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 265 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 272 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 17 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches | 311 won, 79 drawn, 21 lost in 411 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 300 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 302 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 312 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 386 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 116 won, 330 drawn, 116 lost in 562 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 64 matches | 506 won, 352 drawn, 506 lost in 1364 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 264 won, 67 drawn, 58 lost in 389 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 48 matches | 341 won, 314 drawn, 341 lost in 996 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lyon | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 42 scored, 28 conceded (91) | 641 scored, 641 conceded (1938) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 15 conceded (45) | 269 scored, 218 conceded (696) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 7 conceded (23) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (546) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 6 conceded (23) | 218 scored, 269 conceded (696) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 19(league sides: 1,047 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Lens | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 66Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 66Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 121.32 | xG for | 111.28 |
| 110 | Goals scored | 118 |
| 92.67 | xG against | 86.93 |
| 79 | Goals conceded | 76 |
Lens
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Monaco | 1.19 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Le Mans | 1.62 | 2.59 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Lorient | 1.24 | 1.60 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Strasbourg | 2.91 | 1.83 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Auxerre | 4.41 | 1.84 | 5–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Lyon | 1.54 | 1.91 | 4–0 |
| 13 May 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 2.87 | 1.22 | 0–2 |
| 8 May 2026 | v Nantes | 0.82 | 1.25 | 1–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Nice | 1.53 | 1.07 | 1–1 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 2.76 | 0.25 | 3–3 |
Lyon
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rennes | 3.13 | 1.37 | 4–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Paris FC | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0–0 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Auxerre | 2.85 | 0.71 | 3–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.75 | 0.69 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Toulouse | 0.70 | 2.77 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Lens | 1.91 | 1.54 | 0–4 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Toulouse | 1.54 | 1.13 | 1–2 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Rennes | 3.17 | 0.84 | 4–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Auxerre | 2.12 | 0.52 | 3–2 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | at Paris Saint Germain | 0.62 | 3.12 | 2–1 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Lens | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 7.49 | xPts | 8.77 |
| 11.37 | xG for | 8.93 |
| 9.61 | xG against | 5.84 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lens and Lyon
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 9 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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