Lens v Paris FC match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lens are favoured at 52% to win this match, with a draw at 25% and Paris FC at 23%. The model expects 2.88 goals total, with Lens having the better chance creation.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 52%Lens win
- 25%Draw
- 23%Paris FC win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LensLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Paris FCLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lens won 31 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 183 of 235.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lens's last 10 home league games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Paris FC's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Lens 2, draws 0, Paris FC 0
Goals: Lens 7, Paris FC 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Paris FC v Lens | 0–5 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lens v Paris FC | 2–1 |
Home and away
LensLens at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostSporting CPUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–2
- WonLyon9 Oct 20262–1
- LostLorient5 Sep 20260–1
- WonAuxerre22 Aug 20265–2
- WonNiceCoupe de France22 May 20263–1
Lens: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Paris FCParis FC away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostLorient10 Oct 20260–1
- WonMarseille6 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnEstac Troyes22 Aug 20260–0
- LostRennes10 May 20261–2
- WonMetz19 Apr 20263–1
Paris FC: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lens- Last match
- 3 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 6 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
Paris FC- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Monaco · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lens
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Lens | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches | 639 won, 166 drawn, 114 lost in 919 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 32 matches | 114 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 919 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 16 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 317 won, 84 drawn, 42 lost in 443 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches | 255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches | 177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 4 drawn, 9 lost in 22 matches | 141 won, 298 drawn, 141 lost in 580 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 51 matches | 516 won, 354 drawn, 516 lost in 1386 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 39 matches | 351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lens | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 19 conceded (70) | 658 scored, 658 conceded (1976) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 4 conceded (30) | 277 scored, 222 conceded (710) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 11 conceded (20) | 159 scored, 159 conceded (556) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 222 scored, 277 conceded (710) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,072 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 470)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Paris FC
Since 17 Aug 2025
| Score | Paris FC | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Level after 15 minutes | 10 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 516 won, 354 drawn, 516 lost in 1386 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 3 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches | 351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Paris FC | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 15 conceded (41) | 658 scored, 658 conceded (1976) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,072 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 470)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Lens | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 67Since 26 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 41Since 17 Aug 2025 |
| 122.89 | xG for | 58.41 |
| 113 | Goals scored | 59 |
| 94.20 | xG against | 63.09 |
| 81 | Goals conceded | 57 |
Lens
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Estac Troyes | 1.45 | 1.27 | 3–1 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | v Lyon | 1.34 | 1.04 | 2–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Monaco | 1.19 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Le Mans | 1.62 | 2.59 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Lorient | 1.24 | 1.60 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Strasbourg | 2.91 | 1.83 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Auxerre | 4.41 | 1.84 | 5–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Lyon | 1.54 | 1.91 | 4–0 |
| 13 May 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 2.87 | 1.22 | 0–2 |
| 8 May 2026 | v Nantes | 0.82 | 1.25 | 1–0 |
Paris FC
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Rennes | 3.62 | 3.35 | 4–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Lorient | 0.97 | 0.55 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Strasbourg | 1.05 | 0.24 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Lyon | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Marseille | 3.29 | 1.42 | 3–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Nice | 2.38 | 0.78 | 3–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Estac Troyes | 1.80 | 0.42 | 0–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 2.20 | 0.61 | 2–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Rennes | 1.20 | 1.77 | 1–2 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 1.86 | 0.79 | 4–0 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Lens | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 10.57 | xPts | 13.35 |
| 14.16 | xG for | 13.41 |
| 11.92 | xG against | 7.26 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lens and Paris FC
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- O. Edouard (Injury) · I. Ganiou (Knee Injury) · J. Gradit (Muscle Injury) · M. Nawrocki (Knee Injury) · A. Sima (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- J. Ikone (Thigh Injury) · N. Sangui (Muscle Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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