Leones del Norte v Libertad match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model sees this as a tightly balanced fixture with Leones del Norte at 35% to win and Libertad also at 35%, with a 30% chance of a draw. Expected goals total 2.32, with both teams projected to score equally. Libertad's recent form is stronger, but Leones del Norte produced a shock 3-1 victory when these sides last met in July.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

35%Leones del Norte win
30%Draw
35%Libertad win

PRO analysis

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Form · newest first

Leones del Norte

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Libertad

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Leones del Norte's last 10 home league games.
Both teams scored in 7 of Leones del Norte's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Leones del Norte 1, draws 1, Libertad 1

Goals: Leones del Norte 4, Libertad 5

Date	Match	Score
9 Oct 2026	Libertad v Leones del Norte	3–0
4 Jul 2026	Libertad v Leones del Norte	1–3
28 Feb 2026	Leones del Norte v Libertad	1–1

Home and away

Leones del Norte

Leones del Norte at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

LostEmelec18 Oct 20261–3
LostTecnico Universitario13 Sep 20260–1
WonOrense SC3 Sep 20261–0
LostIndependiente del Valle22 Aug 20262–3
DrawnBarcelona SC3 Aug 20261–1

Leones del Norte: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 3 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Libertad

Libertad away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

WonEmelec20 Sep 20262–1
WonDeportivo Cuenca7 Sep 20261–0
LostAucas30 Aug 20260–1
DrawnGuayaquil City FC15 Aug 20262–2
WonMushuc Runa SC27 Jul 20262–0

Libertad: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 4 of 10
Clean sheets: 3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Leones del Norte

Last match: 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Emelec · Liga Pro
Next match: 6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Emelec · Liga Pro

Libertad

Last match: 8 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Guayaquil City FC · Liga Pro
Next match: 7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Guayaquil City FC · Liga Pro

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:29 GMT · not changed since

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