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La Liga
Levante
3–3Finished
Sevilla
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 8

Levante v Sevilla match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 12 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Levante are modelled as clear home favourites with a 48% win chance against Sevilla's 25%, though a draw is possible at 26%. The hosts dominate recent head-to-heads and the model expects them to create a 0.51 expected goals advantage. Key absences on both sides and unconfirmed lineups add uncertainty.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%Levante win
  • 27%Draw
  • 25%Sevilla win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LevanteLevante

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

SevillaSevilla

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Levante avoided defeat in 5 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 16 Aug 2025.
  • Sevilla won 18 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Levante 2, draws 0, Sevilla 2

Goals: Levante 10, Sevilla 8

DateMatchScore
23 Apr 2026Levante v Sevilla2–0
4 Jan 2026Sevilla v Levante0–3
21 Apr 2022Levante v Sevilla2–3
24 Oct 2021Sevilla v Levante5–3

Home and away

Levante

Levante at home

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBarcelona13 Sep 20262–4
  • WonReal Betis29 Aug 20265–2
  • WonMallorca17 May 20262–0
  • WonOsasuna8 May 20263–2
  • WonSevilla23 Apr 20262–0

Levante: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Sevilla

Sevilla away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonDeportivo La Coruna16 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnEspanyol6 Sep 20261–1
  • WonAthletic Club22 Aug 20263–1
  • LostCelta Vigo23 May 20260–1
  • WonVillarreal13 May 20263–2

Sevilla: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Levante
Last match
22 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Villarreal · La Liga
Next match
4 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
Sevilla
Last match
23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Barcelona · La Liga
Next match
6 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Real Madrid · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Levante

Since 16 Aug 2025

ScoreLevanteLeague sides
Conceded first3 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches143 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1144 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches342 won, 370 drawn, 342 lost in 1054 matches
Level after 15 minutes8 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 30 matches639 won, 482 drawn, 639 lost in 1760 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 24 matches471 won, 418 drawn, 471 lost in 1360 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLevanteLeague sides
All matches17 scored, 20 conceded (44)784 scored, 784 conceded (2434)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 29 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 12(league sides: 1,285 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 600)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Sevilla

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreSevillaLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 7 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches757 won, 244 drawn, 143 lost in 1144 matches
Conceded first5 won, 8 drawn, 30 lost in 43 matches143 won, 244 drawn, 757 lost in 1144 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches342 won, 370 drawn, 342 lost in 1054 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches263 won, 376 drawn, 263 lost in 902 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches38 won, 119 drawn, 363 lost in 520 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches26 won, 102 drawn, 394 lost in 522 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches151 won, 448 drawn, 151 lost in 750 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches12 won, 87 drawn, 409 lost in 508 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 53 matches639 won, 482 drawn, 639 lost in 1760 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 45 matches471 won, 418 drawn, 471 lost in 1360 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSevillaLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 27 conceded (74)784 scored, 784 conceded (2434)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (22)279 scored, 272 conceded (825)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 14 conceded (34)272 scored, 279 conceded (825)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,285 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 600)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LevanteSevilla
44Since 16 Aug 2025Matches with xG74Since 20 Oct 2024
60.33xG for76.01
55Goals scored89
72.86xG against103.48
73Goals conceded114

Levante

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Levante: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Villarreal0.454.271–3
13 Sep 2026v Barcelona2.422.582–4
6 Sep 2026at Malaga0.811.460–0
29 Aug 2026v Real Betis2.761.925–2
24 Aug 2026at Osasuna1.280.700–0
16 Aug 2026at Espanyol0.281.550–3
23 May 2026at Real Betis2.281.511–2
17 May 2026v Mallorca2.440.342–0
12 May 2026at Celta Vigo1.522.183–2
8 May 2026v Osasuna3.220.633–2

Sevilla

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sevilla: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.403.471–3
16 Sep 2026at Deportivo La Coruna0.730.141–0
11 Sep 2026v Valencia0.930.101–0
6 Sep 2026at Espanyol0.531.231–1
29 Aug 2026v Atletico Madrid0.900.931–3
22 Aug 2026at Athletic Club0.411.253–1
15 Aug 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.191.892–1
23 May 2026at Celta Vigo0.801.590–1
17 May 2026v Real Madrid0.721.000–1
13 May 2026at Villarreal0.870.833–2

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

LevanteSevilla
6 of 6Matches with xG7 of 7
5Points in those matches13
6.37xPts8.42
8.00xG for6.09
12.48xG against9.01

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Levante and Sevilla

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LevanteLevante
    Doubtful
    K. Etta Eyong (Muscle Injury) · A. Primo (Shoulder Injury) · H. Sotelo (Knee Injury)
  • SevillaSevilla
    Ruled out
    Marcao (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    L. Stassin (Muscle Injury) · R. Vargas (Knee Injury)

Published 12 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since

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